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02/10/25 Afternoon CommStock Report- The New State(s) Of Canada…Here is Some Advice

By The Commstock Report
Canadians did not take President Trump's invitation to become the US 51st state very well. I have a Canadian family acquaintance that I called to get him and his wife's take on our offer for their country to join us as a state. It was a very cold response. As I have previously mentioned, my mother's side of the family settled in Quebec in 1644 as part of the original group of 800 French families whose travel was paid for by the King of France as incentive to settle New France. My ancestors were one of the founders of Marysville, a town of 11,300 today, which is located north of Montreal in which they were issued a deed to land by the King. This is where my great-great grandparents were married. I have been there. The Demers family has flourished in Canada and has a website and annual family reunions to this day. They still speak French (and English). My direct ancestors in the family emigrated to Kanekee, Illinois in the 1850s to find work… with 4 double great uncles serving in the Illinois infantry in the Union Army in the civil war. After the war they settled in western Iowa…
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02/10/2025 Bourbon Street Beatdown, More Tariff Talk

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Welcome to the least productive Monday of the work year. I have seen many tragic things in life, yet few of them are as tragic as yesterday’s halftime show at the Super Bowl. I would guess even the Chiefs fans feel a little worse about the halftime show than the actual game.   On to the grains: All grains are slightly lower this morning (as of the time I am writing this), with better precipitation forecast for Argentina and dryer conditions in Brazil, allowing harvest/planting to pick up the pace in Brazil and the US will struggle to be competitive in the next 6 months. Yes, Mato Grosso has been behind on harvest so far, being 28% done vs. the five-year average of almost 40% but gaining momentum. All eyes will be on Tuesday’s USDA report. If there is a wild card lying in the weeds, it could be what the USDA does with South American stocks. I am not expecting much since we have gotten market-moving reports in the last few months. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/09/2025 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Super Bowl Sunday comes as the country's number two largest food consumption day behind only Thanksgiving, with pizza and chicken wings the most popular items. Opening calls are for the grains to start a touch weaker on tariff negativity and a better weather outlook for South America. In the Headlines Tariffs were still the talk of the trade last week and should remain a major focus as President Trump promised more action this week. Buying interest perked up briefly on the U.S. Trade Representative nominee saying that he would review the Phase 1 trade deal with China, but bullishness was soured by the idea that non-compliance would become a non-starter for future negotiations. President Trump also said that he was in "no rush" to talk with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Any new tariffs announced against China in the coming days would seem to risk direct retaliation against U.S. agriculture exports. Monday kicks off new tariffs from China against imports of U.S. coal, crude oil, natural gas, agricultural machinery, and certain high-displacement automobiles. India is another potential target of tariffs this week, along with the European Union. Brazil's soybean harvest advanced to 15 percent complete last week, which was still slower…
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02/07/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Corn and Soy Price Differences under Increasing Scrutiny

By The Commstock Report
The fast approaching spring season places attention on upcoming planting decisions and how farmers will respond to changing crop price signals. Current consensus has formed around the expectation for heavier corn acreage and a smaller soybean area, an outcome that could eventually work against what has been a mostly stronger relative price trend for corn compared to soybeans.   The new-crop soybean/corn ratio (SX25/CZ25) currently stands at 2.27, which is down from a year ago when the SX24/CZ24 multiplier was 2.47. December corn futures are trading roughly 8 cents lower than where last year's contract was trading at this time, while November soybeans are just over a dollar cheaper. There is a loose seasonal trend that sees soybeans strengthening relative to corn through the end of this month. Slight upside for the ratio since its low in December may fit with the idea that futures prices needed to buy soybean acres. Crop budgets were recently updated by the University of Illinois to show local break-even prices that are closer to the current market on corn than on soybeans. The total cost to cover on corn was calculated at $4.60 (CZ25 futures at $4.65) and the cost for soybeans was $11.05…
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02/07/2025 Front Loading Corn-Maybe, Pork Replacing Beef Locally

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Commstock report. What a week it’s been. Most of the action has been in the cattle trade, yet grains have also provided some spark. The Rosario Grain Exchange confirmed that Tuesday and Wednesday rain benefited crops in the central growing area. Export sales, released yesterday, continue to support corn as sales were 58.2 MBU, up from last week’s 53.5 MBU and the last 4-week average of 54.3 MBU, crushing last year’s 45.6 MBU. While some have continued to say that Mexico’s purchases are front-loaded, and looking at the chart, it could be. However, they did have the worst drought in 500 years. Total corn sales to Mexico stand at 16.4 MMT vs last year’s 15.8 MMT. I would say that price had more to do with Mexico’s frontloading and the need to replace bushels that were not grown domestically vs. tariffs. The September lows offered a good spot to get long corn for them.  Also, to back up that theory, Mexico removed the ban on accepting GMO corn from the United States. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/06/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Ukraine Still on a Front Burner in 2025

By The Commstock Report
Front burners issues are in hard competition with each other to attract attention and keep it. Let's get more up to date on our perspective on the state of the war in Ukraine with Russia. Both Ukraine and Russia now appear to be prepositioning for talks. Putin doesn't appear to have the wherewithal to crush Ukraine while it doesn't appear that Ukraine has the resources to force the removal of Russian forces from all of its territory. The engagement has evolved into a mutual bleeding of each other. It is likely that some kind of ceasefire and negotiation eventually takes shape pausing the hostilities for this round sometime in 2025. That would mean that Ukraine may soon begin to recover its Ag production and exports by late 2025/2026. Unless either of them has something hidden in reserve to change the current head-to-head stalemate on the battlefield some alternative outcome to a victory will be negotiated. President Trump will reportedly offer a plan next week. A negotiated outcome is an embarrassment for Putin. Russian numerical advantages have been blunted by Ukraine's resolve and Western resources.   Casualties on both sides have been brutally high but the depth of the resulting drain…
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02/06/2025 Eggs Making Headlines

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Good morning. Rangebound is the theme for today’s trade. March corn continues to rally but fails against the $5.00 level. This is the fourth time in the last seven trading days that the nearby corn contract hits $4.97 or better and runs out of steam. Yesterday’s flash sales to South Korea (330,000 MT for 25/26) and excellent EIA ethanol report weren’t enough to bust out of the overhead resistance. Ethanol production currently is running at about 7% in January over January higher. If we do see some exports slip, the grind would offset some of that demand. How much we offset while that depends on how many exports are canceled. Many people have talked about Mexico’s frontloading exports. While some of that may be true, they did have a drought of biblical proportions, and I would guess that it’s possible that they cancel some, but it is highly likely it will be all and that they will need to lift the vast majority of what is on the books. I will continue to sell nearby corn against the $5.00 level until proven wrong.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/05/2025 Safrinha Corn Needs To Get Planted Now

By The Commstock Report
Safrinha Corn Needs To Get Planted Now Tariffs are the focal point this week with Brazil’s pending harvest taking a back seat. As I write this President Trump is set to meet with President Xi of China. The market seems to be expecting a favorable outcome, looking for China to extend an olive branch much like Mexico and Canada. So far it has been working. Neither Canada nor Mexico wished to test Trump’s resolve which will likely lead to further threats of tariffs anytime a country falls out of line with the United States. As the tariffs have only been put on a 30 day pause, we have not seen the end of this story yet. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/05/2025 Eggs Making Headlines

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Good morning, subscribers. We will try to avoid the tariff talk as much as possible, that story has been run, and only time will tell what China elects to do. President Xi Jinping and President Trump did not have their scheduled phone call yesterday, and the White House gave no reason why this was canceled. The original trade deal that China signed was for significant Ag purchases, which China has continued to fall short of reaching. I would suspect President Trump will push to at least get that covered, yet China has been courting Brazil since that deal was signed, making any large announcement or new deal with China a wait-and-see storyline.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/04/2025 Is this MapQuest?

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains I often see reels on Facebook making fun of my generation’s use of printed maps and directions before the GPS became affordable. Yet here we are. It feels like I am young and have a full head of hair again, looking at outdated printed directions before the ink is dry (do not ruin it, I am drafting the story, so it is my vision, you too can have hair and be skinny if you so choose in my story). Back to the regularly scheduled program. Are we tariffing or not? That is the question of the hour and a fluid situation. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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