The Commstock Report

New metal price highs were being recorded once again to close the week. Gold, silver, platinum, and copper seem to have bullish inputs from all sides considering the flows of buying interest coming from central banks, institutional funds and swap dealers, private wealth offices, retail traders and commercial end users. Metal bulls have their reasons, whether it is a long play based on inflation and currency expectations, safe-haven demand driven from geopolitical tension, industrial rationing for use in hot-topic applications like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence, or for speculative gaming around short squeezes and the physical delivery market. Traders are left to weigh long-term metal price expectations against the potential for extreme volatility in the short-run, projecting not only how high metal prices could reach, but also how far prices could fall while still remaining within the current cycle.   The CME just this month changed its silver margin rates to a higher floating percentage set at 9 percent. Notional value of the 5,000 ounce silver contract trading at $100 per ounce is $500,000, which will factor into a minimum silver futures margin requirement near $45,000 and higher based on individual risk assessments. Since the start of the month, the…

01/23/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Relatively Quiet as Metals Mark New Highs On the Grains Soybeans and the winter wheat markets favored the upside in quiet overnight trade, while corn held near unchanged and spring wheat traded lower. Soybeans are working on gains for the week, while wheat markets are steady/higher and corn is lower. As an active week on the geopolitical front comes to an end, there is still plenty for traders to monitor. The Greenland situation has calmed down, as the world awaits details on President Trump’s framework deal with NATO to unfold. Trump said the U.S. is watching Iran closely and has an “armada” heading toward the region, though he said he hopes it won’t be needed. That pushed crude oil futures up around $1 overnight. Meanwhile, Trump said he had a “good” meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Davos and expressed renewed hope the war with Russia is going to end. However, the Kremlin said there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demands for territory in Ukraine are accepted. Talks between the U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials will continue today and Saturday. Gold…

I think that there have been two attempts now the past two weeks where anticipated strength in the cash cattle market has not materialized… yet those that I talk to are not bearish. Supply bullishness is well ingrained into market participants and in terms of herd expansion nothing is likely to change in that regard. Heifers have added to numbers on feed. You get your tightest supply on feed in a cycle when heifers are held back from feedlots into the breeding herd. These heifers today are worth so much that ranchers are reluctant to opt not to send them to the sale barn. When ranchers work from cash/equity and not debt in making the decision to retain heifers, some degree of expansion will unfold. This is the heyday of the cattle industry when the beef/cattle market is posting record profitability. President DJT says that beef prices are too high but most cattlemen are wealthy enough that they forgive him for expressing such sentiment as the only thing that they disagree with him on.   Feedlots have paid what used to be thought of as exorbitant prices for feeder cattle and up until recently, they have not been able to…

01/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video TACO Boosts Market Sentiment On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat showed mild price strength during the overnight session. Soybeans built on Wednesday’s strong gains, while the corn and winter wheat markets recouped some of yesterday’s losses. Fresh news for grain traders is limited, though improved sentiment in the broader marketplace is providing modest support.TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, the idea that the president's threats are mostly veiled attempts to get involved parties to the negotiating table. Sentiment in the broad marketplace strengthened after Trump called off promised tariffs on European nations, proclaiming that he had “formed the framework of a future deal” for Greenland. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the compromise didn’t include discussion of the territory’s sovereignty — making it more likely that a final deal can be reached. Negotiations are expected to center on several areas, officials in Europe familiar with the discussions told the Wall Street Journal. They include a potential U.S. agreement with Denmark about stationing forces at bases in Greenland and expanded European efforts to boost security around the Arctic. The U.S. could receive a right of first refusal on investments in…

I spent MLK day at the farm Monday, and noted that while the crops looked great, everything had turned dry.  All the water puddles from Christmas were gone.  We were expecting rain though, showing plenty of precipitation in the forecast.  Wouldn't you know it, it rained over an inch last night.  We had gone close to two weeks without any rain…which in my opinion probably did us some good.  It allowed roots to move deeper in the soil while helping us get caught up on spraying.  Our first tour group starts this weekend.  I hope they brought their umbrella.   The next two-week forecast shows heavy precipitation in Northern Brazil.  Meanwhile, Southern Brazil as well as neighboring Argentina doesn't show much of anything.  Depending on fertility and crop phase, this may not have much effect.  We see rainfall filling in these regions starting February 4th.  If that happens, any yield effects will be muted.  But we will need to see additional confirmation of that.  CONAB reduced their soybean yield prospects by 1 MMT to 176.1 MMT overall, simply by cutting 650,000 acres.  Does anybody remember what I said CONAB was smoking a couple of months ago by overstating acres?  …

01/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video U.S. Presses China to Buy More Beans On the Grains Soybeans led a round of gains overnight, with the March contract around a dime higher early this morning. Corn and wheat are showing milder price strength. The broader marketplace awaits President Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Asked how far he is willing to go to acquire Greenland, Trump told reporters, “You’ll find out.” Trump is scheduled to give a special address in Davos at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bessent Presses China on Soybean Buys at Davos U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos to press China to step up agricultural purchases, saying he encouraged Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to buy “a little more” soybeans than Beijing has already committed to purchase. China has reportedly completed its initial commitment to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans. Bessent said soybean purchases were explicitly discussed during his meeting with He Lifeng. The comments underscore the Trump administration’s effort to keep agricultural trade flowing even as broader U.S./China relations remain strained by tariffs, geopolitics and industrial policy disputes. Bessent’s public nudge…

Denmark and many Greenlanders say that Greenland is not for sale. They have gotten quite adamant about it. President Trump is just as adamant that he is going to have Greenland one way or the other. That is a good negotiating stance to begin with. Of course, Greenland is for sale at the right price. Andrew Johnson, president Trump's impeached predecessor, was reportedly the first president to consider acquiring Greenland. Secretary of State Seward, who negotiated the deal for Alaska, wanted Greenland too. Denmark has controlled Greenland for roughly 300 years and in 1916 the United States formally recognized Denmark’s interests in Greenland in exchange for the Danish West Indies, which became the U.S. Virgin Islands. So, there has already been one deal made. After WWII, Harry Truman offered Denmark $100,000,000 mln for Greenland. They instead allowed US military presence on Greenland as an ally. The US has since closed all but one post-cold-war military installation on Greenland. I should note that when the US invoked article 5 after 9/11 Demark responded by contributing troops in the Iraq and Persian Gulf wars and in Afghanistan. In the new world pecking order being implemented by the US, the Trump foreign policy is “being…

01/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitics Take Center Stage On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat all traded higher at points overnight but are under light pressure early this morning. Broader market focus is on geopolitical events, with much of the attention on the situation in Greenland, which pushed gold and silver to new highs overnight. Specific to agriculture, traders will shift their focus to shipments of soybeans to China after completing its pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans. As I indicated last Friday, a large portion of the purchases are unshipped. Brazil’s soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting are just getting started, but both are ahead of year-ago. Heavy rains are forecast for some areas of central Brazil during the next two weeks, which will limit field activity. Hot and dry conditions are forecast for Argentina’s main crop areas. India will allow the export of 500,000 MT of wheat/wheat products. Trump Threatens New Tariffs Over Greenland; EU Responds President Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting Feb. 1, with duties set to rise to 25% in June unless European governments agree to a…

Grain and livestock markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day. Grains will open at 7 pm as normal for the Tuesday session. There were pre-openings for Tuesday that included lower stock index futures and sharply higher metals. In the Headlines Tariffs were the talk of the weekend, with new 10 percent charges threatened by President Trump against Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland, and increasing to 25 percent on June 1st, or "until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." European leaders were reportedly considering to respond with a "trade bazooka" that has been prepared with a collection of measures blocking exports to the United States. Europe will stay in focus with this week's World Economic Forum taking place in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump is expected to attend. Conflict in the Middle East continued with weekend strikes on ISIS in Syria. The U.S. military announced it had killed an Al Qaeda leader connected to the deaths of Americans in December. In Iran, protests were not fully quelled and President Trump told reporters that "it's time to look for new leadership in Iran." Crude oil futures…

Since Christmas the SOI has been on a tear, climbing like an F-22 Raptor, reaching a 90-day SOI reading of 8.29. A El Nino SOI is a 90-day reading of +7 or higher. It is there. Nutrient Ag noted that the trade winds in the western pacific had shifted now flowing west to east consistent with El Nino. That means warmer water along the equator toward South America. The corn-belt typically produces above trend line yields in El Nino years. We will have to watch the water temp in the Gulf of Alaska too but so far this is not a set up for a drought of the century next summer. January temps moderated so that our snow melted. Temps are forecast to get cold again so winter is not over. The snowmelt was unexpected as that reduces the chances of snowpack delaying spring field work. If this crop goes in early under El Nino conditions, we will be on track for yet another record crop next year.   Part of our problem is not the price of grain or soybeans but that the cost structure has been maintained relentlessly too high. Fertilizer is the worst of it. Some of…