CommStock Reports

04/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Concerns Expand to Freeze Watch On the Grains Wheat markets actively built on this week’s strong gains overnight, led by HRW contracts that are supported by crop concerns in the Plains – the latest being a freeze watch for key HRW areas Friday night/Saturday morning. The near-term technical challenge will be clearing the March high, which is less than a dime above the overnight high in July HRW. Soybeans traded lower overnight, while corn was caught in the middle and pivoted around unchanged. Grains have somewhat divorced from outside influences and are more fundamentally focused, with wheat needing to lead any move higher. Crude oil futures are around $1 higher this morning, despite reports the U.S. and Iran may seek a two-week extension of the original ceasefire that is set to expire next Tuesday – if not a more permanent truce. Front-month WTI crude oil is trading near the bottom of the month-long broad, choppy range and appears to have found a comfort zone just above $90 as traders await more details on a potential ceasefire. Bullish Biofuels Use Implications in NOPA Crush Data The National Oilseed Processors Association reported its members crushed 226.2 million bushels of soybeans in March. While that was shy of the 230 million bushels expected, it was the second highest monthly total ever behind October 2025. Through the first seven months of 2025-26, NOPA crush topped the same period last year by 12.8%, and well on pace to reach USDA’s 2025-26 forecast ...

The weather forecast seems to be much in line with what we covered last week, still showing a much wetter pattern in the Eastern Cornbelt and much drier to the West.  The big news is that parts of the Midwest might get some snow this weekend along with a brief cold snap.  We are looking for up to 2” of snow on Saturday.  Temperatures have actually been extremely warm this spring, with the state of Iowa ranking the 127th warmest out of the last 132 years on record.  Soil temperatures have now been consistently above 50 degrees across the state, but the risk of frost remains high.  Planting before that cold front this weekend would make me nervous.  Most farmers will wait until Monday to start corn.   Not surprisingly, US drought monitor shows major improvement in the Eastern Cornbelt and the short-term weather forecasts looks to reinforce that.  The next two weeks will bring 2” to 4” across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Eastern Iowa.  I am not sure they need it anymore.  The GFS and ECMWF agree that it will be dry in the Western Cornbelt, but differ on the degree of dryness.  The GFS shows a more profound drying pattern, centered over Nebraska and Northern Kansas and reaching into surrounding states.   The war in Iran will continue to make headlines and influence the market, but focus is shifting more and more to weather, which for the moment leans bearish.  Brazil has a large bean crop and their corn crop will likely ...

04/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Fear, Farmer Input Prices Diverging On the Grains Buyer interest built in corn and soybeans overnight, with both markets trading higher this morning. Winter wheat market initially extended this week’s gains overnight but are now under light pressure. Choppy trade is likely to continue short-term as traders decide whether to put more focus on geopolitics, weather or long-term fundamentals. Currently, all are having some influence, causing the back-and-forth price action. Front-month crude oil futures spiked down to their lowest level in three weeks overnight amid hints from President Trump that the war with Iran may be winding down. Trump said the war is "close to over" and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. However, crude oil futures rebounded more than $6 off their overnight lows as traders wait to see if Trump’s words are anything more than rhetorical. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the market’s fear gauge – has declined notably, signaling traders’ concerns with the war have eased. Input prices for farmers, especially fertilizer, remain troubling – see “Other Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below. Record Watch: NOPA March Soybean Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to show its members crushed 230 million bu. of soybeans during March. That would be up 10.2% from February and 18.2% above year-ago. It would also be an all-time high, topping the current record of 227.6 million bu. in October 2025. Soyoil stocks are expected to be near a 13-year high at around ...

Part 1 ENSO Primer Part 2 El Nino is Now Screaming our Way   Climate forecasters are as clear as I have ever seen them that we are entering a strong El Nino phase of our climate. I do not remember them ever going so far as to predict a “Super El Nino” before as many models now forecast. What is an El Nino? It has become a kitchen table topic of discussion but few are really sure.   I thought that I would start with a primer on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in part one of a report and then share what is being forecast in part 2 to follow. The world has been setting temperature records during La Nina which is the cool water phase of the ENSO so scientists are fascinated to what a strong El Nino, which is the warm water phase, will do to planet temps and subsequent climate conditions. Science is always renewing and with that, a degree of uncertainty piggybacks the change.   The Mystery of the "New" La Niña: Why the Climate Engine is Changing its Playbook. Imagine a force so powerful it can reshape weather across the entire planet—flooding continents, drying out rainforests, and toppling the stability of civilizations. This is the power of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate engine that has governed Earth's cycles for tens of thousands of years. The ENSO is measured in the direction of trade wings and water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific. The Climate Seesaw: Understanding ...

04/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Risk Sentiment Continues to Flip-Flop On the Grains Grain and soy futures mildly firmed overnight, with the exceptions of soy oil (lower) and spring wheat (narrowly mixed). The general strength came in the face of weakness in crude oil, as there are hopes of additional peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Risk sentiment continues to flip-flop with new headlines coming out of the Middle East conflict.President Trump said that the “right people” in Iran still want a U.S.-Iran deal after talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that full efforts were being made to resolve the outstanding issues between the U.S. and Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart that although Iran was unable to reach an agreement with the U.S. over the weekend, negotiations had progressed on many issues. Importantly, China said it’s ready to play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the Middle East.Poor Winter Wheat Conditions Get Worse Winter wheat conditions declined one percentage point from the previous week to 34% good/excellent. That’s still six points below the five-year average, which also declined one point from the previous week to 40%. Poor conditions in HRW areas remain an anchor on the overall crop ratings. Corn and soybean planting continued to run ahead of average at 5% (4% five-year average) and 6% (2% average) done, respectively. Planting is just getting started in some areas of the Corn Belt. Spring wheat planting increased ...

There may be no other place in the world where mankind has been as lethal to its own species by its own hand as in the Mid-East. That is because civilization ranges back in age there for several millennium. That is a lot of time spent hating each other. Alexander the Great…Genghis Khan, Caliphates and empires along with names of rulers and conquerors too many to keep track of, have carved out a history of war with their spears and swords driven by hate and greed. It has been called the cradle of civilization but it is also its crypt. In my opinion the development of civilization stalled there as they have never been able to get beyond the eye-for-an-eye culture ingrained into their DNA. Christianity was the best opportunity to break with their cultural generational genocide but instead of showing the other cheek, the Christian Crusaders drew their swords and joined in the slaughter of the Saracens. Men killed there in the name of one God or another for centuries. I find it concerning that the current conflict is still being fought with a religious zealot undertone from both sides. They say that history repeats itself and there is no better example of that than the warring peoples of the Mid-East. The Pope spoke up condemning the killing and asking both sides to drop their weapons and find another way. He practices theology rather than ideology. I am always amazed when some who claim to be Christian tell him to ...

04/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Whipsaw Continues as War Premiums Rebuilding On the Grains Wheat posted strong gains overnight, as traders started to rebuild some of the war premium they have recently removed. Soy oil rallied on support from strong overnight gains in the crude oil market. Corn also traded higher, while soybeans traded narrowly on both sides of unchanged. Global stock markets and bonds fell, along with metals. Basically, markets reversed their trends since the fragile ceasefire was reached less than a week ago. Weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down, putting the ceasefire between the two countries in jeopardy. The U.S. will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. ET, including the Strait of Hormuz and the waters of the Gulf of Oman. The blockade won’t impede vessels going to and from non-Iranian ports. Iran threatened ports in the Persian Gulf. War tensions have built. Plains Rains to Remain Hit-And-Miss Last week’s rains across the Plains were heavy in some areas, though dry western locations were largely missed. More of the same is likely this week. USDA’s winter wheat crop conditions this afternoon are expected to show good/excellent ratings remaining below the five-year average of 40% for the past week. There will continue to be a great divide between HRW conditions and those for SRW and white winter wheat. On the Cattle:  Live cattle rallied sharply again on Friday, scoring contract highs and an all-time high on the continuation chart, amid sharply ...

Grains called to open with moderate strength behind crude oil, but with all markets possibly easing into Monday like in recent weeks. In the Headlines The count continued for what looked to be a seventh straight week of crude oil futures opening Sunday night higher following the first strikes against Iran. President Trump announced a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and said the Navy would "seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran." Weekend developments were first marked by Vice President Vance reporting no success in securing a deal after talks with Iran held this weekend in Pakistan. President Trump had previously posting about oil tankers coming to load U.S. crude oil because of the Persian Gulf disruptions. Trump also said on Saturday, "I am watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY...American Farmers, we have your back!" U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was in the news for recent comments about trade relations with China. He suggested being satisfied by the current status "where the United States continues to maintain substantial tariffs on Chines goods..." Greer was also noted for speculating how the conflict with Iran could disrupt trade negotiation with China. President Trump threatened new tariffs against China and other countries that supply weapons and aid to Iran. Trump's planned meeting with Xi Jinping remains rescheduled for May 14. With May corn futures down just over 30 cents from their high three weeks ago, the price break generated additional export business, leading to new corn sales just reaching their ...

The Dow Jones stock index rallied over 1,000 points after President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. Stronger stocks over the last two weeks followed five consecutive weeks of losses. Heightened market volatility derived from conflict in the Middle East came almost exactly one year after historic price swings were sparked by concerns about tariffs. The first two weeks of April 2025 featured daily trading sessions with Dow Jones futures down about 1,700 points, then down 2,200, up 2,900, and down 1,000.  Both periods of turmoil were felt differently in the grain market, but the present is like the past here in that there are major issues distracting the usual focus away from the developing spring planting season. Decisions about planting and marketing often involve consideration of where prices are compared to last year, so see what stands out about performance over the previous 52 weeks:   This week's break extended nearby corn futures into a loss of about 6 percent from a year ago. Even with the buildup of inventories from a record 2025 crop, farmers were turning relatively tight-fisted with cash sales again, which helped to force slight improvement for basis. Sales can slow at this time of the year as farmers get busy planting the new-crop, which has lately promised better price prospects with December corn futures trading nearly 20 cents better than a year ago. Where old-crop basis is firming against softer board prices, consider the opportunity costs tied to selling cash grain for potential replacement with futures ...

04/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video War Premium Gone from Grains Despite Geopolitical Mess On the Grains Corn and winter wheat futures are mildly favoring the downside this morning after two-sided trade throughout the overnight session. Soybeans are trading just above unchanged, along with spring wheat. Soymeal is firmer and soyoil is weaker as traders unwind long soyoil/short meal spreads. For the week, corn and wheat markets are sharply lower, while soybeans are near unchanged in a continuation of the nearly month-long consolidation pattern. Crude oil is firmer as traders wait to see if the planned meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan this weekend will take place – and more importantly – if talks produce a lasting ceasefire. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a potential major sticking point. Iran has reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, forcing ships to go through their so-called “toll both.” So… while the strait is technically “open,” it may be open only to those Iran is willing to let through or those willing to pay a tariff to proceed – reportedly $1 per barrel or up to $2 million per ship. Effectively… the strait remains closed. President Trump said on social media: “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” Trump also said, “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. ...

USDA WASDE Uptakes: With only a few tweaks, USDA used mostly last month's WASDE numbers in their April update. They will take a more aggressive look ahead in their May report. The 2.127 bln bushel corn and 350 mln bushel soybean carryover projections were unchanged. There was no change in the corn balance sheet and a 35 mln bushel transfer from exports to the crush in soybeans. They increased the wheat carryover by 7 mln bushels to 938 mln. Brazil and Argentina's corn/soybean production estimates were left unchanged. World ending corn stocks were increased by 2 mmts to 294.8 mmts. World ending soybean stocks were reduced .5 mmt to 124.8 mmts. The biggest change was in world ending stocks of wheat…a 6.1 mmt increase to 283.1 mmts. Back now to the weather and planting prospects. Local cash corn basis has improved 14 cents here since price later contracts were priced in late March. Farmers will be going to the field soon rather than moving corn. More rain is forecast here with warming temps. Soil moisture temps desired for planting should catch up with crop insurance dates (April 10th corn/April 15th soybeans) here by the weekend. High N prices may trim some planted corn acres in marginal areas as will lingering drought in the central/southern plains. The planting intentions report called for 95.3 mln acres of corn and 85 mln acres of soybeans. There is room for additional rotation of corn to soybeans in that mix which saves N. Nothing in the forecast yet ...

04/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Stabilize but Aren’t Stable Amid Fragile Ceasefire On the Grains Grain and soy futures strengthened overnight, as the wheat market recouped a portion of Wednesday’s sharp losses, corn futures regained what they lost and soybeans extended yesterday’s gains. Soyoil followed the crude oil market higher in a modest correction to Wednesday’s sharp losses. The broader marketplace is proceeding cautiously as traders wait to see if the fragile ceasefire holds and await the upcoming talks between U.S. and Iranian officials. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with limited ship movement as shipowners and insurer groups said more details will be needed to determine if safe transit is possible. Reports of strikes in the Middle East have eased, but Israel’s desire to keep up attacks on Lebanon is a potential stumbling block. Markets have stabilized from Wednesday’s sharp price moves but are not stable… far from it. Volatility will remain elevated until there’s much more certainty on the geopolitical front. WASDE Report Day… If It Matters USDA’s WASDE Report at 11 a.m. CT is expected to feature minor fine-tuning to its balance sheets, with the distinct possibility that USDA punts any changes to the domestic supply/demand tables again this month. Following are pre-report expectations from Reuters surveys of analysts: Expectations For Export Sales Week Ended April 2 Corn: 900,000 to 1.6 MMT Wheat: 200,000 to 600,000 MT Soybeans: 200,000 to 600,000 MT Soymeal: 200,000 to 450,000 MT Soyoil: 0 to 12,000 MT On the Cattle:  Live cattle firmed on Wednesday, with the front-month contract scoring a new high on ...

Following the Iran ceasefire agreement, the grain market appears to be holding up relatively well all things considered.  We had been giving back war premium prior to this ceasefire and so it would make sense that when the actual ceasefire is announced, reactions were thus a bit more muted.  December corn closed at $4.70 on February 27th, the day before massive operations began against Iran and we are currently only 4 cents over that.  Undoubtedly managed money has been building a long position and may look to defend it.  There will be many details that need to be worked out related to the Iran conflict, but we expect focus will shift more towards the fundamentals, principal among those being weather.  There are reasons to be bullish, but most of them can be nullified by a positive weather outlook.   April rainfall appears to be mostly cooperative.  The earliest my soybeans have ever been planted is April 23rd, and I expect they will be planted before that this year.  Temperature outlooks lean normal to above average for approximately 80% of the Corn Belt.  We see drought risks being limited to the outer edges of the Corn Belt in the next couple of weeks.  If it continues like this, there may be more risk from too much rain, slowing down planting in some areas.   This week we see 1" to 2" cutting through a swath of Kansas, Southern Iowa and Northern Illinois.  By the end of next week, rainfall expands across the bulk of the ...

04/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Ceasefire Heard Round the World On the Grains Soy oil and wheat futures faced heavy selling pressure overnight, following the crude oil market sharply lower after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran just ahead of Tuesday evening’s deadline from President Trump. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans rebounded from a gap-lower start and are trading narrowly mixed this morning, with old-crop firmer and new-crop mildly weaker. The broader marketplace response was as expected as traders removed risk premiums. Energy markets, led by crude oil plunged, global stocks and bonds rallied and metals surged, while the U.S. dollar index is under heavy pressure. Key will be the response to the broad knee-jerk reaction overnight. The U.S. has halted all offensive operation in Iran, subject to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister said that passage through the strait will be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” President Trump said the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait. Meanwhile, Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates reported continued missile and drone attacks from Iran, despite the ceasefire. Focus now turns to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan that start on Friday. While energy markets immediately plunged overnight, impacts at the gas pump and on fertilizer prices will be much slower. There’s always a delayed price response as these markets are ...

Good Question asking… Why Can't We Stop the Drones?... or at least identify them? Yes, there have been numerous reports of drones flying near U.S. airbases here in the US and near bases abroad including major incidents at Langley AFB, Wright-Patterson AFB, Hill AFB, and U.S. bases in the UK (RAF Mildenhall, Lakenheath, Feltwell, Fairford) and Germany (Ramstein Air Base) as well as European and US commercial airports. Potential intentions range from hobbyist activity to intelligence gathering, prompting increased military attention and calls for stronger defenses against these incursions.   Small drones were spotted flying recently near and over Air Force bases in Utah, Ohio, and Germany… Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed—in addition to the arrest of a Chinese citizen who allegedly used a drone to snap photos of a Space Force base—as a rash of incursions around military installations expands. Unauthorized drones flew over Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home of a B-52 bomber wing, multiple times the week of March 9. At the start of U.S. operations against Iran on Feb. 28, small drones seen flying over a "strategic U.S. installation" were defeated, the head of U.S. Northern Command told lawmakers. Barksdale announced that it was implementing a "shelter-in-place" order after the drone incursion. We are at war so drones over US bases anywhere are being taken seriously.   The primary question would be who is behind the drone activity in the US? The usual suspects would be our peer adversaries, Russia, China and maybe even Iran but most of time the authorities are clueless about their source.   How about aliens? Not the illegal undocumented kind. If they fly here in a space craft, does that qualify as ...

04/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rainy Forecast Trumps Below-Average Wheat Conditions On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of losses during the overnight session, despite a below-average initial winter wheat crop condition rating from USDA on Monday afternoon. Rains forecast over the central U.S. into at least mid-April pressured winter wheat markets to their lowest level in nearly two weeks. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans have worked off their overnight lows as soy oil has firmed along with crude oil. The broader marketplace is keenly watching the U.S./Iran war situation. Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Markets wait to see if there is a last-minute deal, if Trump again extends his deadline or if the U.S. and Israel unfurl another wave of attacks, expected to target Iranian bridges and power plants. HRW Crop Struggling; Rains on The Way USDA’s initial winter wheat crop condition ratings for the spring came in at 35% good/excellent, down 13 percentage points from last fall and six points below the five-year average. Conditions are especially poor in HRW states, while SRW and white winter wheat states are rated much higher. A sub-par initial crop condition rating doesn’t necessarily mean the yield will be poor, though it does mean timely rains are needed to build yield potential ahead of harvest. In 2023, the initial spring rating was only 27% good/excellent and the final winter wheat yield was 50.6 bu. per acre. ...

I guess it is good news. After several days of port call in Split, Croatia    where repairs and resupply occurred, the USS Ford is going back into the theater rather than coming home. The USS Ford carrier battle group has been on one of the longest deployments in US Navy history hitting 282 days as of April 2nd. This record-breaking deployment is expected to reach 11 months, potentially exceeding the recent 341-day high set by the USS Nimitz. A normal deployment is 6 months. In many ways the USS Ford is a big computer. As we all know computers require software updates and rebooting every so often. Much of this has to be done in a port. Non-battle issues with the carrier started occurring with its sewer plumbing breaking (Got the "loo" fixed on Artimus II for Easter as well) and a 30-hour fire in its laundry area occurred causing smoke problems in the crew berthing area of the ship.   There are lots of differences between Ford and Nimitz class carriers. One of the biggest is the aircraft launch mechanism. Ford's is electro-magnetic (EMALS) while Nimitz carriers use a steam system. The Ford launch system can put up well over twice the number of sorties during a 24-hour surge as can the USS Bush which is coming to join Ford and Lincoln in the region. In other words, in terms of operational capacity the Ford is like having two Nimitz carriers when it all works. There is the question as to ...

04/06/2026 Trump Deadline, Key Crop Reports & Economic Data Coming Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and wheat favoring the downside early this morning while soy markets are slightly firmer. Crude oil futures showed initial price strength overnight but have weakened this morning while still reflecting elevated war premium as President Trump on Sunday issued a threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and blow up “everything over there,” before announcing what appeared to be a new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from geopolitical happenings, grain traders will get USDA’s initial winter wheat crop ratings of the spring this afternoon. Based on state level updates throughout winter, the good/excellent rating will fall from the 48% level reported both last fall and early April 2025. Weekly crop progress/conditions and the start of spring planting will put a greater focus on weather, especially with dryness/drought encompassing much of the U.S. crop area. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 80% of the country faced moisture deficits at the end of March, with varied levels of drought over 44% of both corn and soybean area, 65% of winter wheat, 21% of spring wheat and 94% of cotton. The forecast offers some short-term relief, with an active pattern expected to bring above-normal rainfall from the middle of this week into mid-April. USDA will also release its April WASDE Report on Thursday, which will incorporate March Prospective Plantings and any changes ...

The stock market gave a strong impression via the strong relief rally early this week that it knows something about the timing as to when the war with Iran will end gleaned from the heavy hints dropped by the president. Mondays low could be tested but should serve as strong support as a candidate for becoming the Iran war low in the S&P. I previously took profit on my S&P put too soon. I am going to assume that some traders know things that are privileged information that we are not privy to as the public. In other words, the stock market may be acting on privileged information other than investor consensus. I do not think that is fair but in this case I hope this information is correct. I have said that it did not make sense to me to spend American lives opening the Strait of Hormuz when the US has no need for the oil. That was why we worked so hard to become energy independent.   The media has evidently been doing a good job of informing us of what the President wants us to know as I noted almost nothing in his presidential address that that was not already reported by the press. I was hoping for some new news. That is why macro-markets reversed today. Probably the standout statement in the address was “we will bomb them back to the stone age.” Iran will not suffer this destruction alone. I believe that Iran has the ability ...

04/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Fails to Calm Markets On the Grains Markets reversed Wednesday’s price action overnight as President Trump failed ease traders’ unease with the war. His Wednesday night address to the nation offered no clear timeline or breakthroughs on ending the conflict with Iran, only noting U.S. objectives would be completed “very soon,” while saying the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in next two to three weeks. Markets wanted clarity… Trump didn’t provide that. The lack of a clear timeline for ending the war eroded hopes that it might come to a speedy end and the Strait of Hormuz could open soon. Grain markets followed the crude oil market higher overnight, with soy oil leading the way, as traders rebuilt some war premium into prices. Crude oil prices are still well below the March 9 spike highs but are trading at the highest levels since that day. Market unease and volatility are elevated ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, with geopolitics remaining the No. 1 focus. Soy Crush, Corn-For-Ethanol Grind Decline in February but Up From Year-Ago U.S. processors crushed 214.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, down 6.1% from January but up 13.0% from last year. Corn-for-ethanol production totaled 424.8 million bu. in February, down 8.0% from January but up 0.7% from last year. Soybean crush is on pace to hit USDA’s forecast of 2.575 billion bushels. Corn-for-ethanol use is pacing behind the needed level to reach USDA’s forecast of 5.6 billion bu., as sorghum has replaced corn ...

April weather forecasts appear mostly favorable with precipitation covering large portions of the Corn Belt except for parts of Western Nebraska and Kansas.  Rainfall accumulates predominately in the Northern portions of Illinois and Indiana, where it should help alleviate severe drought concerns.  According to the GFS, portions of West Central Illinois, Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri will see up to 6” the first half of April.  This may reduce the likelihood of early planting in those areas.   I drove through Western Iowa late last week and everything looked pretty much ready to go.  I did spot a couple of fields that were planted already but I won’t tell you where.  I was only able to lay strips on about half of our corn acres last fall, but we were able to find a narrow window early this week just ahead of some light precipitation.  I have never laid strips in the spring before, but considering warmer spring temperatures seem to be a more frequent occurrence, I thought it might be a possibility.   Brazil’s soybean harvest is over 80% complete this week and shows no indications of falling below 180 MMT.  A recent crop tour by Agroconsult sees Brazil’s total crop size reaching 184.7 MMT, with the potential of a national record yield of 55.8 bpa on top of additional record acres.  This compares to USDA at 180 MMT.  The only state with below average yields was that of RGDS which was no surprise.  As expected, yield loss in this state appears to ...

04/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video No Fooling: Geopolitics Continue to Supersede Fundamentals On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of selling in the grain markets overnight. Wheat and corn more than erased Tuesday’s gains, while soybeans gave back about half of what they gained yesterday. Soy oil also retreated overnight, while soy meal traded higher. Much of traders’ focus remains on geopolitics and crude oil, which is under pressure, with WTI futures dipping below $100 overnight as President Trump said the war with Iran could end within a couple weeks. Trump will address the nation on the war situation at 8 p.m. CT. Markets will pay close attention as Trump is expected to outline his administration’s strategic objectives, including whether the U.S. will pursue a negotiated end to hostilities, maintain military pressure or shift toward a containment posture. Breakdown of USDA’s Reports: Markets Fail to Hold Fundamental Focus Following are results for USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report from Tuesday. Key Highlights: Traders reacted to Prospective Plantings more than Quarterly Grain Stocks, as the misses for March 1 stocks were minor for corn and average for soybeans compared to previous years. Implied second quarter 2025-26 corn use of 4.28 billion bu. was a record. Corn use has been record large through the first half of 2025-26. Combined corn and soybean plantings remained at 180 million acres. All-wheat seedings are expected to be record low. Spring wheat area is expected to decline 575,000 acres, with top producer North Dakota down 400,000 ...

Israel has literally killed scores of Iran's top leadership in a "decapitation" campaign. Iran has shown no sign of being able to block such surgical strikes continuing to lose key political and military leaders throughout the war. I admit to being fascinated as to how they have been able to do this. AI says," Israel's approach relies on a combination of sophisticated technological surveillance, human intelligence, and precision air power: Intelligence Fusing: Israel has successfully pinpointed leaders by tapping Tehran's security cameras and using advanced algorithms to track daily movements, addresses, and commute routes. Tracking Networks: Mossad and IDF intelligence have monitored the mobile phones and movements of bodyguards to build "patterns of life" for high-value targets. Drone Warfare: Fleets of loitering drones operate over Tehran and other cities, shifting from large command centers to targeting individual security checkpoints and roadblocks manned by the Basij paramilitary force." Russia tried this in Kiev with Zelensky and failed. I am sure that our enemies are learning from Israel. You do have to have air dominance to consummate the strikes to make this possible. This decapitation is a departure from recent history when most world leaders felt protected from war. Trump captured Maduro but could have killed him. The eye for an eye thing of these cultures is cause for concern. The drawback from this is that they killed those in position of authority to negotiate to end the war. Israel was reportedly given a no-kill list by the US for ones they are reportedly talking to now. The regime may have not changed ...

03/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Key Data, Geopolitical Decisions On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, though a generally firmer tone has developed early this morning aside from corn and spring wheat, which are modestly lower. Traders await USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11 a.m. CT, both of which have potential to swiftly move markets. Crude oil futures also traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but have developed a firmer tone this morning. President Trump’s conflicting signals are amplifying uncertainty across global markets, as investors struggle to reconcile rhetoric pointing toward de-escalation with continued military escalation on the ground. The result is a widening disconnect — one that is driving sharp, intraday swings across energy, equities and commodities. On one hand, repeated assertions that negotiations with Iran are progressing; on the other, explicit threats targeting critical infrastructure and an ongoing expansion of military operations. That inconsistency is keeping risk premiums elevated, particularly in oil markets tied to the Strait of Hormuz. And now the Wall Street Journal reported Trump signaled to aides a willingness to wind down the U.S. military campaign against Iran — even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The narrative gap between words and actions is becoming the market driver. Until there is alignment — either through verifiable negotiations or a clear shift in military posture — uncertainty and volatility are likely to remain elevated across the broader marketplace. Key USDA Reports Could Give Grains More of ...

President Trump says that "the war with Iran is finished but it is not quite finished." The military offensive has had an enormous destructive impact on Iran's traditional military. They have been executing everything as planned on the schedule ahead of time, according to the President and the Pentagon, that is under their preview and control. The President says that Iran is begging to negotiate and the buildup of additional US forces including marines and airborne units is just precautionary or pretense. Trump has ended two previous rounds of negotiations with military strikes and wants them to believe that if they do not concede to his terms there will be another. Current communications are not advanced enough to be called negotiations. They have killed so many Iranian officials they had to find someone with the authority there to negotiate with. US Special forces units reportedly left the US for Jordan last week. The arrival and pending arrival of two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) along with a brigade and headquarters contingent of the 82nd airborne is meant as intimidation.   The type of units that Trump has spun up are assault troops meant to take something…a beach, island, airport and briefly hold it until reinforced with more heavily armed units such as infantry or armored brigades or divisions backing them up. That kind of deployment would require much more in terms of logistics. It is an army and is much harder to move. President Trump has given no such indication or orders for ...