CommStock Reports

Interest rates are coming down, or are they? The Fed has now reduced its benchmark interest rate that banks are charged by ½% so far this year but the rate used by the mortgage industry to set their rates is the 10-Year Treasury note which bounced following the latest Fed rate cut.   30-Year Fixed: The average rate has fallen to around 6.11% as of November 1, 2025, down from earlier highs in 2025. A year ago, it was 6.72%. So that is better than it was, but I went back to check what my mortgage rate is and at 2.55%, it should be near the historical low. CD rates are higher than my mortgage rate and it is less than the rate of inflation so one cannot afford to pay that off early. That is why many homeowners are locked into the homes they have. Even divorcees share homes not wanting to give up their cheap mortgages. Rising home insurance costs, required for mortgages, are also spoiling the soup. The government shutdown temporarily disrupted the mortgage process as well. Realtors say the housing market has gotten tough…harder for buyers to get mortgages making it harder for them to get deals to close. Realtors would agree with Fed Chairman Powell that the housing market is tightening. There is more demand than there is the ability to master affordability. There is some significant regional disparity in home sales. FL may be the worst where 17.8% of closings fell through in September. Here in the ...

11/11/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key To U.S./China Trade Deal: VEU, Not Soybeans New Reco Day 2: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. The sell order was hit on Monday at $11.32. On the Grains Soybeans modestly pulled back overnight after rising to near the top of last week’s broad trading range on Monday. Corn and wheat pivoted around unchanged in a quiet overnight session. China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms, keeping some of its export controls in place. The “validated end-user” system (VEU), would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to follow through on a pledge to President Trump to facilitate the export of such materials while ensuring that they don’t end up with U.S. military suppliers, people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal. The VEU mechanism that Beijing is considering is modeled on U.S. laws and procedures. The U.S. VEU system has been in place since 2007. Under that system, certain Chinese companies are cleared to buy sensitive goods via a general authorization, essentially a simplified export-approval mechanism, instead of needing individual licenses for each purchase. This makes it easier to import controlled goods such as chemicals or chip-making equipment but requires companies to put up with U.S. government inspections of their facilities, among other steps, to verify compliance with ...

I have eerily noted that some things that president Trump says seemingly come to fruition because he says them. His bully-pulpit has been adhered to by markets often enough to cause me to pay attention with caution and respect. Buying the stock market when he said to worked out for investors although he will never tell them to sell. Maybe buying more farmland as he advised would work too? Long term it has always worked. When he says that interest rates need to come down 3%, I think he means it. When he says that he wants control of the Fed, he will get it eventually.   Looks like he didn't need the Senate to adopt the "nuclear option of ending the filibuster" as they found 60 votes for a deal to reopen the government (he will need it for other things). After getting 60 votes to bring the bill to the floor they only need a majority for the actual vote on the bill. That should happen and then it goes to the House which has to come back into session. Then, Speaker Johnson will have to crack Trump's whip. I was surprised the Dems caved. I have a flight booked next week from Des Moines to LaGuardia so this vote may have a direct impact on that trip. I have been waiting for my cost share on a conservation project from USDA that was delayed until October but then was caught in the government shutdown. More on the details of ...

11/10/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Risk Appetite Builds Amid Cautious Optimism New Reco Day 1: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. On the Grains Global markets and grain futures showed cautious optimism overnight amid signs of thawing U.S./Chinese tensions and a procedural hurdle to end the record U.S. government shutdown. January soybeans traded near the middle of last week’s broad range during the overnight session. Corn and winter wheat markets rebounded from losses late last week. China rolled back tariffs on U.S. goods today, as part of the deal reached at the end of October between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. China also added 13 fentanyl precursors to a list of controlled exports to the U.S., Mexico and Canada, under commitments of the deal, imposing new export license requirements. The U.S. and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices, in another sign of easing tensions. The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the government shutdown, as seven Democrats and one Independent voted “yes” with Republicans, while Sen. Rand Paul was the lone GOP “no” vote. It is not yet clear if Senate Democrats and Paul will allow the remaining voting process to be expedited or if they will force the multi-day process to play out in full. All 100 senators would need to agree to speed up the rest of the process. The package includes three regular ...

Grains are called to open quietly steady unless the stock index futures are snowballing lower by that point. Last week showed cracks in the recent grain price strength as the broader financial market flipped risk-off. A late Friday recovery for stocks looks more likely to extend into temporary stability that puts the attention of grain traders back onto Chinese buying. We will discuss moving to reward the soybean price rally this week. In the Headlines Reduced flights were the latest product of government shutdown cuts, with shrunken and unpaid air traffic control teams causing the Trump administration to cancel thousands of flights. Scheduled air traffic is set to decline by 10 percent this week and up to 20 percent if the shutdown continues. A new development on shutdown affecting SNAP payments also came on Friday evening with a court order that suspended an earlier ruling requiring the government to pay full benefits. China followed through on removing certain controls against metals and other elements heavily used in the production of smart phones and other technology hardware. Export restrictions were suspended on Friday for lithium and most of the rare earth minerals, and then on Sunday for gallium, germanium, and other hard metals and metalloids. Monday is the scheduled date for the U.S. to lower the fentanyl tariffs and for China to remove and reduce tariffs against U.S. imports, including soybeans. Price limits were again being tested by cattle futures last week as prices tumbled in response to bearish headlines about beef tariff reductions and ...

The soybean rally sputtered on Tuesday and Thursday this week at the same time that the stock market was selling off. Immediate points of alarm for equity investors included the pending impacts of the Supreme Court hearing on the validity of President Trumps tariff authority, which overlaps with soy traders awaiting confirmation of follow-through or lack thereof on Chinese export purchases. All industries are left susceptible to tariff decision ramifications that could include a mess of lawsuits over tariff refunds. Striking down the specific tariff authority being tested diminishes the basis of prior trade deals, but it sets up a likely quick replacement of new tariffs under alternative legal powers, prompting another web of court cases to follow.   Adding to attention on tariffs and the government shutdown, two other storylines were raising interest for threatening to destabilize financial markets – cracks showing up in the commercial credit market and fears about artificial intelligence causing structural unemployment to rise. These stories leave a person hoping that the stock market nervousness expressed this week was not foreshadowing a worse panic where the public hears a lot more about 'receivables factoring' or worse, 'the AI bubble.'   Receivables factoring is the business practice of packaging and selling invoices to raise cash that is backed by the future customers payments owed to the company. Investors can have interest in factoring companies that buy the receivables and take future payments or just make loans to a company using the customer invoices as collateral. These lending arrangements are economical ...

11/07/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Waiting On More Active Chinese Buying & Gov’t Shutdown To End On the Grains Soybeans and spring wheat futures firmed a little overnight, while the corn and winter wheat markets favored the downside. After Thursday’s hefty losses, all but spring wheat futures are working on losses for the week, though that could still change during daytime trade. The China demand front remains quiet to close out the week. Aside from a handful of cargoes (soybeans, wheat and sorghum), Chinese buyers have not rushed to purchase U.S. ag goods in the immediate aftermath of the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinpinig. Aside from uncertainty about Chinese demand, Trump’s tariffs and the upcoming Supreme Court decision, along with the ongoing government shutdown continue to hang over markets. Regarding the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Senate Republicans Thursday that they should expect to vote on a new proposal today. That proposal would reportedly combine a short-term spending measure with a package of three full year funding bills, covering the legislative branch, agriculture, and military construction and veterans affairs. However, Democrats indicated they weren’t sold on the package. China’s Trade Activity Slumps in October China's exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% from year-ago to an eight-month low of $305.4 billion in October, missing expectations for a 3% increase and plunging from an 8.3% gain in September. This marked the first decline in exports since February and only the third monthly contraction since the start of 2024. Shipments to the U.S. plunged by ...

The opening arguments in the case presented to the Supreme Court over the legality of president Trump's use of emergency powers to unilaterally declare and impose tariffs, without explicit Congressional approval, appeared to favor the plaintiffs judging by the Justices comments. Congress has given the executive branch emergency powers but these have never been legally defined in context with tariffs until now. The tone of the Justices during the opening arguments, how many questions and to which side they are directed, can be a sign of how they are leaning but it is not definitive. The tone appeared to favor the plaintiffs. No one knows for sure how long it will take for the Justices to render their verdict but it could be months rather than weeks to wait.   President Trump was clearly concerned about this court case as it goes to the heart of his authority to levy tariffs without Congressional approval. No one has taken as much license to do that as this president has. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs were initiated and enacted by Congress without the initial support of president Hoover who agonized over whether to sign a bill authorizing them but ultimately succumbed to political pressure to do so. Farmers were strong supporters of Smoot-Hawley tariffs, hurting because of imports. 1000 economists wrote Hoover a letter asking him not to sign the tariff law and it would not be hard to find 10,000 economists who would do the same with Trump. This time around Trump is unilaterally ...

11/06/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Traders Sell the Fact On the Grains Soybeans traded notably lower overnight, continuing the pattern of big price swings the three previous days. In typical fashion, corn followed soybeans. Wheat futures also weakened overnight, after a string of recent strong gains, in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade with Chinese purchases. China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony at the U.S./China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, part of the China International Import Expo. No details on purchase volumes were released, though as I previously reported, talk ahead of the event said it could be up to 5 MMT. Beijing on Nov. 10 will suspend retaliatory tariffs on many U.S. ag imports, though U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% duty in addition to the 13% VAT that is charged for all soybean imports. Note: The key difference lies in import tariff — 3% for Brazil versus 13% for the U.S. (remaining fentanyl tariff). If Trump takes off the 10% remaining fentanyl tariff, then China would likely lower the soybean tariff by 10 percentage points leaving it at the 3% MFN rate. A soybean industry contact said: “China might waive the extra tariff for government owned/state owned enterprises, but I’m not sure if they would do that for privately held firms. That could allow some purchases to go through but may not expect them to go far beyond the baseline commitments if it’s just Chinese government owned companies buying. This will have to ...

For better or for worse, a trade deal with China is consummated. Soybeans traders will now spend the better part of the next several months or more attempting to discern whether China will abide by that deal. China does not have a great track record when it comes to honoring their trade agreements, and so we prefer to error on the side of caution. Part of how we come to understand trade deals could get lost in translation. Not all countries stop at their respective "STOP" signs when driving, as some consider them merely a suggestion. Could China consider our soybean purchases to be a similar suggestion? It cannot be understated that their purchase of ag products is "unbinding" much like the last trade deal. Meaning there are no repercussions if they do not follow through. After the first trade agreement, we saw no apparent change in their buying pattern, continuing to purchase beans in Brazil where they were cheaper. Why would they stop now?   A big part of the trade deal with China was gaining access to their supply of rare earth minerals without stipulations. They agreed to extend the availability for twelve months, which means we may get to do this all over again a year from now. Between now and then, China will use this time to replenish their inventory of soybean supplies while the US continues to develop more alternative supplies for rare earths. In other words, while this trade deal needed to happen, we remain unconvinced ...

11/05/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Confirms Removal of Tariffs on U.S. Ag Goods On the Grains Soybean futures rallied overnight but didn’t take out highs from the two previous days. Price action remains volatile as traders try to sort out the China demand situation and relative fair value. Corn remains a follower, though price action hasn’t been nearly as volatile since there is no talk of China buying U.S. corn. Wheat modestly eased from its recent gains overnight.China confirmed it would end tariffs imposed March 4 on soybeans and other U.S. ag products including corn, wheat, sorghum and chicken. Beijing is also removing an additional 15% retaliatory levy on U.S. wheat. The ministry confirmed in a separate notice that the 24% tariff on all U.S. products will be suspended for a year. These changes take effect Nov. 10 and are in line with the fact sheet of the trade deal released over the weekend by the White House. A 13% VAT will still be charged for U.S. soybeans. Soybean Export Prices Matter With the one-year truce on soybean tariffs by China, daily export prices will largely determine whether Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian or U.S. supplies. As of Monday, Brazilian shipments were cheaper than U.S. cargoes after an extended period of running premium to U.S. Gulf values. As long as Brazilian prices are cheaper, any Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans will be from state-owned entities versus commercial firms. Each bushel (or metric ton) of soybeans that is sold to China is still ...

I am not a big baseball fan but I did follow the World Series. It was not only the Dodgers against the Blue Jays or LA versus Toronto but it was Canada versus the US. I have never noted that President Trump has paid any attention to the game of baseball either (until LA won being invited to the WH) but many Canadians thought that they were playing the Series against him. That made them want to win very badly. I checked the odds ahead of the series and pundits gave LA a 4 to 1 advantage to win over Toronto. The Dodgers are in first place for players' salaries at $350 mln versus the Blue Jays which are in 5th place for players' salaries at $255 mln. The Blue Jays had them until they didn't. The Series went through game 7 and had two games with extra innings including the final, until the Dodgers eked out the win. That was how it was likely going to end but Canada rallied to make it a seriously contested Series. They were not intimidated by the Dodgers and played to win. I did not note any evidence of disrespect by the Dodgers toward the Blue Jays. Both are members of Major League Baseball so are part of and partners in a league.   I wish that we could say the same with our economic relations with Canada. Both countries are part of the USMCA alliance which in Canada is called CUSMA. It covers 85% ...

11/04/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybean Buyers Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from their recent surge overnight, as there were no new private reports of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Corn also weakened, while the wheat markets traded mostly higher, led by SRW contracts.StoneX Raises Corn Crop Estimate, Lowers Soybean Forecast StoneX forecasts corn production at 16.748 billion bu. on a yield of 186 bu. per acre. Those are up modestly from the firm’s estimates of 16.737 billion bu. and 185.9 bu. per acre in October.For soybeans, StoneX estimates production at 4.303 billion bu. on a yield of 53.6 bu. per acre. Those are down slightly from the firm’s estimates of 4.326 billion bu. and 53.9 bu. per acre in October. Due to the government shutdown, USDA did not release October crop estimates. In September, USDA estimated the corn crop at 16.814 billion bu. on a yield of 186.7 bu. per acre. It estimated the soybean crop at 4.301 billion bu. on a yield of 53.5 bu. per acre. Other private crop forecasts are scheduled to be released this week. Even if the government doesn’t reopen by then, USDA will release this month’s crop production estimates on Friday, Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10). One issue USDA (NASS) will face is that the October objective yield samples had to be discarded after the shutdown, meaning there is a “skip” in the data. Many of the fields that were tabbed to be surveyed on a monthly basis ...

Yeah…grain farmers with average yields are not making money but neither is it as bad as the YouTube click-bait suggests, describing unsold grain/soy bursting grain bins and soybeans rotting in storage. Post-harvest, corn basis levels have improved while soybean basis levels not so much. The soybean supply pipeline must have gotten filled. It would appear to me that our farm, corn/soybeans is going to remain in the black this year because of a record corn yield and being 70% corn. Our soybeans were a loser, with a disappointing 65 bpa yield with a $100 acre loss before a Trump trade aid-ACH and potential farm program payment. When all revenue sources are added up, I would think that soybeans will be close to break-even. Our corn will make money. My son says that his cost of production for corn is $1,050 acre. About 45% was corn-on-corn with 55% corn-following-soybeans or prevent-plant. The yield is believed to be 262.5 bpa, a new farm record for 540 acres of corn. That was very close to our July yield estimate. I said then that I thought it was a record yield. The previous farm record was 261 bpa so that was just barely correct. You always look back at what could have made it a little better. We did some things right…adding tile, good fertility, early planting, little later variety and the fungicide treatment. Missing the derecho would have helped. Of the things that we could control, a second fungicide application reportedly paid locally. ...

The Facts of the Matter: China Removes U.S. Ag Tariffs     Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soybeans pushed to for-the-move highs overnight, with the January contract reaching the highest level since July 2024. Wheat actively traded higher, with the December SRW contract extending to the highest price since the beginning of August. Buying in corn was reserved, with the December contract holding below last week's highs, as there has been no talk yet of Chinese demand for U.S. corn – and there may not be any – which would keep corn firmly in a follower's role.   The White House on Saturday released a fact sheet (see below for full details) that said Beijing will lift retaliatory tariffs it imposed in March, including those "on a vast swath of U.S. agricultural products," listing chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The removal of the retaliatory tariffs will help make U.S. farm products competitive. Of note: There has still been no confirmation from Beijing on what it agreed to relative to ag purchases or tariffs removal.   Bloomberg reported a major Chinese grain importer made inquiries over the weekend for U.S. wheat cargoes for loading from December through February. The last Chinese purchases of U.S. wheat came in early October 2024.   The China International Import Expo (CIIE) 2025 is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from Nov. 5 to 10. Some ...

Grains look set up for light back and fill action to start the week. Traders will continue to respond to the follow-through or lack thereof on Chinese crop purchases. In the Headlines China headlines had January soybean futures rallying 55 cents last week to finish higher for a third week in a row. December corn gained 8 1/4 last week and Chicago wheat was up 21 1/2 cents. December live cattle dropped $4.25 and November feeders were down $15.42. December hogs were down just 62 cents but went lower for a fifth straight week. Private sources have reported up to seven cargos of U.S. soybeans sold to China amid the trade agreement, which was only a small start toward what the treasury secretary said China has promised to buy before the end of the year. Soybean price action into the new week will stay guided by speculation about new sales to China, which are not being reported officially during the shutdown. With China's state-owned grain buyers expected to build a reserve with U.S. beans, it was wondered whether a multi-million ton purchase would be announced by Chinese officials for a show of follow-through. Soybean basis should indicate how much the export market is heating up. Basis was noted to be weaker for Brazilian beans again last week as active farmer selling developed in response to higher flat price and growing comfort with progress in the new season, but now Brazilian export offers have broken lower to restore a price advantage against U.S. soybeans ...

Cattle futures remain near the top of the list for price performance over the last twelve months, pacing just behind gains for commodities including gold and coffee. On the opposite end of the spectrum are wheat futures, which were lower on the year along with cotton, oats, and lumber. The previous year of price action contrasts with what has lately been a reversion of trends that features cattle futures correcting lower while grains stage a recovery. History may eventually show this fall to have been a significant point of inflection for grains, livestock, and many other markets.   Leading and lagging the one-year performance list were coffee and orange juice. Both markets started turning lower at the start of 2025, but they would diverge this summer when coffee futures turned back around toward fresh all-time highs while orange juice futures kept going lower to cut prices by more than half from their one-year top. Coffee and orange juice display alternative paths forward for cattle and other markets that have recently paused following new all-time highs.   Gold has been yet another commodity to display sharp downside volatility after having stretched to fresh record highs this month. Gold and the rest of the financial market is left to digest the outcome of this week's Federal Reserve Bank meeting, where an interest rate cut was countered in its bullishness by an uncertain economic picture that is made cloudier by not having government reports during the shutdown. Easing China tensions were a small offset to gold getting ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains Soybeans paused overnight as traders assess the China buying situation. Corn and winter wheat markets drifted lower. Soybeans are poised for their second straight week of strong gains. Despite losses Thursday and overnight, corn and wheat futures are still mildly higher for the week.   Well… that didn’t take long… and it shouldn’t if China is going to purchase 12 MMT (441 million bu.) of soybeans for delivery by January, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told us yesterday. Bloomberg reports that China bought at least four cargoes totaling around 250,000 MT for shipment late this year and early 2026, citing people familiar with the situation. State-owned COFCO was the reported buyer. This should and will be a recurring storyline if China is going to live up to what the Trump administration says it agreed to.   This followed reported purchases of three cargoes totaling 180,000 MT purchased by COFCO ahead of the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.   If you are keeping score… that’s 430,000 MT… only 11.57 MMT to go. Reports of Chinese buying should be rapid.   Even if China rolls back some of its additional tariffs that were added for U.S. soybeans earlier this year, there’s little incentive for commercial buyers to make purchases. We haven’t heard anything on that front from either Chinese or U.S. officials.   Purchases by state-owned firms would likely go into strategic reserves. While ...

I am going to start this report with a shout-out to my grand-daughter Taylor Wuebker who is in Indianapolis at the National FFA convention. She is wearing one of those blue jackets with Iowa on the back. She is our next generation getting started in Agriculture. I am a proud grandfather. Finally…Some Answers! And More Questions   I have been posing a lot of questions recently needing answers and we are getting some this week. The really big question was how far that Trump and Xi would go in the trade war and the answer is that neither wanted to disengage fully on trade. Each for their own reasons sought a trade deal. We will remain engaged in trade with each other. I do believe that Trump miscalculated the leverage that he had over China and had expected a more lopsided result in his favor. Tik-Tok was not resolved and no high-end computer chips were committed to China. This handshake "deal" is just a pause in the confrontation that temporarily resolves some superficial issues without getting to the heart of the challenge. The confrontation is not going away and competition, posturing and positioning will continue. Neither Trump nor China was on the hill yet that they were willing to die on or allowed them to slay their opponent. Hopefully this agreement lasts longer than the one in Gaza.   The DEAL appears to be that China gets a 10% reduction in the tariff, now 20% on fentanyl reducing their overall tariff to 47%. That is ...

10/30/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Deal a Dud for Soybean Traders as Details Lacking New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. Fill at $11.09. New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. Fill at $4.67. On the Grains Soybean futures reacted highly negatively to the U.S./China trade truce – with corn and wheat following to the downside – as implementation details were lacking. Of note: January soybeans have not entered the Oct. 27 chart gap, stopping 1/4 cent shy of that day’s low as of early this morning. President Trump said China would buy “tremendous amounts of U.S. soybeans and other ag products immediately.” He also wrote about “massive amounts of soybeans and sorghum” purchases. China's commerce ministry said it would expand agricultural trade with the U.S. but did not specify the scale or timing of purchases. Words like “tremendous” and “massive” are relative and subjective… traders wanted objective specifics. The deal might turn out to be a true win for soybeans and other ag goods, but on the surface… it’s a dud to traders due to the lack of details. Late breaking news... Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year. For the next three years, China has agreed to buy a minimum of 25 MMT annually for the ...

We wrapped up the 2025 harvest this weekend on the farm in NW Iowa. Corn yields were in line with what we were hoping for. We don't have the final weight tickets yet, but overall we should be north of 250 bpa….maybe more. We might have a shot at taking out our personal best of 261 bpa. We lost 10 to 20 bpa on the high wind (mini-derecho) event that occurred in August, causing sporadic lodging throughout the field. The corn stalk did not collapse but it snapped over enough, effectively shutting off nutrients to the ear. Some things we learned this year: Fungicide was the big one. It probably saved us 30 bpa or more. We also learned that not all fungicides are created equal, as some reported applying fungicide but still reported crop damage to disease. We also heard from folks that are starting to put a second fungicide application in their routine. Part of this depends on the growing season, as drier years may not warrant it. The challenging part of fungicide in my opinion, is you need to have it applied before there is any visible impact.  Speaking for our area only, in mid-August growers were saying that they didn't understand what all the hoopla was about regarding disease. Within two weeks disease pressure had spread and widespread panic ensued. Later day hybrid maturities yielded better. There could have been a 20 bpa yield difference between 108-day corn and 106-day corn. I saw some 111-day corn ...

10/29/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Makes Token Soybean Buys Ahead of Trump/Xi Meeting New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from recent strong gains overnight. Corn and wheat futures pivoted around unchanged. China booked its first known cargoes of U.S. soybeans for 2025-26 ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump and Xi are expected to finalize a deal that will include “substantial” soybean purchases by China, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Reuters reported the pre-meeting purchases by China included three cargoes (~180,000 MT; 6.6 million bu.) secured by state-owned COFCO for December-January shipment. As I noted on Tuesday, China watchers suggest the eventual purchase volume for delivery in early 2026 could be around 10 MMT (367 million bu.), though other purchases would be likely within the framework of the deal. Reuters reported China could buy about 8 MMT of U.S. soybeans for its strategic reserves in the December to May period, making purchases through state-owned enterprises COFCO and Sinograin. There remains uncertainty about timing of other purchases of U.S. soybeans and other ag goods and how the deal will be implemented. Some of those details should be known once the deal is inked on Thursday. Trump Reaches ...

10/28/2025 "America First -Canada Second!?" PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The title is a quote that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made at a Canadian conference in Toronto referring to the two countries auto industry. Lutnick made pointed comments about auto manufacturing in Canada, stating that "car assembly is going to be in America and there is nothing Canada can do about it". According to sources who attended the virtual meeting, Lutnick proclaimed that Canada must accept being "second" to the United States in the auto sector. He said that Canada might make a few auto-parts on which some tariffs would be applied but the autos will be assembled in the US. Negotiations over. There would be no deal on autos. Negotiations were not going anywhere before Trump ended them is a fit over the Reagon ad. Canadians do not feel very loved or respected by America right now and it has become hard for them to sort out their feelings of disgust for President Trump from the rest of us when they accept that Americans voted for him…some three times. I do not think that Americans had any idea that President Trump would treat Canadians as harshly as he has and a majority polled do not agree with it, but no one challenges Trump on this in this country. Canadians get a little sympathy but no real help from Americans. Support from Americans on Trump tariffs on Canada breaks down along partisan lines. US opinion however on whether Canada should become our ...

On the Grains Soybeans actively extended recent strong gains, overnight, with the January contract reaching its highest in a year and nearing $11. Corn and wheat continue to strengthen as well, though soybeans remain the clear upside leader.   Details of the U.S./China trade agreement reached over the weekend have been scarce, though China watchers tell me Beijing is weighing a plan to purchase around 10 MMT (~367 million bu.) of U.S soybeans to cover its domestic needs through February to stabilize supplies and ease pressure on Chinese crushers after months of tight margins.

President Trump says that he expects to finish the framework of a trade deal with China when meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. Let's hope that this works out as he suggests it will. The first draft, put together by subordinates that the two presidents are supposed to finish, reportedly has China returning to our Ag markets in some significant way. Details are yet obtuse. Issues could change from what is now known when Presidents Trump and XI meet. US soybeans have become cheaper than Brazilian soybeans but that could change if China actually consummates some US purchases. There is nowhere near enough information yet to base any longer-term conclusions upon but if both sides opened the door to a deal, something is likely to come through it. Right now, nothing is so that would be an improvement. We have an example in Phase 1 of what didn't work. The Phase 1 trade agreement was never consummated in the manner that US interests were led to believe that it would be. According to the Peterson Institute, China only complied with 62% of what the two-year agreement said they should purchase overall and 77% of what they agreed to purchase of Ag commodities.   The USTR has initiated an investigation of their noncompliance in order to shine a light on it in current negotiations but little is likely to come of it. President Trump says that Biden did not force compliance. China differs, arguing that they did comply and when ...