Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/21/2026 Sun-Tzu with Drones PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Most of you are likely familiar with the story and lessons left by the Chinese General Sun-Tzu that are touted by Generals and Corporate CEOs today. He explained how to win without being the biggest or having the strongest army in a war. His ideas on things like "how to fight" and "when to fight" and "when not to" made him what is considered to be a brilliant strategist. Sun-Tzu was free to command to implement his strategy. Not so today. Our political leaders appear to circumvent military generals who follow the orders of these politicians. Sometimes the best military strategy conflicts with political objectives. We have two major wars going on, one between Ukraine and NATO against Russia brought on by Vladimir Putin. The other is Israel and the US against Iran. While not quite yet up to being called a global world war, they are becoming intertwined with each other in progressively more ways as they escalate in conflict. Iran and Russia are allied against the Ukraine and NATO. Israel…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/20/2026 Stress Degree Days are Accumulating in a Lengthening Growing Season PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After one more hot day today…temperatures back off again below the 86^ threshold for counting SDDs. A few chances of rain pop up in the forecast as well but it will be cooler temps that matter. While temps cool off for a reset this week, they heat up again which is what the market reflected today. When the forecast cools for good the market will be over with too. Another chart gap opened. The 476 retracements target for Dec corn was hit. Soybeans here used the recent heat to grow like crazy. They look visually phenomenal. This appears to me to be the best weed control that I have ever seen in soybeans in this region…almost perfection. We are not in drought here having subsoil moisture reserves that should get us to the next rain. Crops are deep rooted so can tap the moisture below. Young farmers get worried when it doesn't rain. I have learned from experience not to be concerned about it. Our…

Staying aligned with the hedge funds can be a difficult task when the trader positions report lags the market. Prices can move dramatically after the end of the weekly reporting period each Tuesday to when the data are released on Friday afternoon and to when the market opens again the following week. It is also an inexact science trying to decipher whether a category of traders like managed money is truly bullish or bearish. Seeing the latest fund position in corn turning net-long by about 12,000 contracts paints an incomplete picture because the 'net' part of it came from some speculators holding 306,000 longs while others were carrying 294,000 shorts. Instead of only looking at the net contract count for each trader category in isolation, consider the directional trends underlying each position and whether they are converging or diverging with one another. The strongest signals of bullish speculative sentiment occur when Managed Money, Swap Dealers, and the Other Reportable traders are all increasing longs, with the opposite true on the bearish end.   Managed money rightfully captures the most attention from grain market analysts because of how the discretionary fund traders usually react first to inputs such as weather, crop…

I have yet to see any signs of a local slowing of our economy. Frankly I see the opposite. "Hiring Now" signs have again proliferated. I live in Dickinson County Iowa…the Iowa Great Lakes region which caters to summer tourism. This entire sector is understaffed here. That is not "it" though. They use the Federal immigrant hiring system or could not operate. We have several manufacturing here…Indian motorcycles, Pure fishing, Rosenboom machine and tool, Brown medical supply manufacturing company, a Nurse placement services company and Safeco commercial furniture manufacturing. All exhibit signs of becoming desperate for workers (literally big signs 'hiring now'). I have a son who works for Pure Fishing who says they cannot find enough employees. A next-door neighbor owns 8 Godfathers Pizza restaurants in the region, and they say they have a major staffing problem. They have a store in Owatonna, MN where they personally have had to keep running daily operations, so they say they do not have time to mow their lawn. Lawn service companies have 'hiring now' signs out too. Lawn irrigation and landscapers here are understaffed as well. Maybe ICE kicking the immigrants out of Minnesota, which bled across the state-line as we…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/15/2026 Already Not Going to End the Way that he Expected! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update New Recco: Reward the rally by selling 10% 2027 December wheat at $7.30 basis Chicago.  Feel free to work off the July contract if that works better with your cash flow.  We are already 60% sold in 2026 wheat at levels close to where we are now.  We advise those behind to make catch up sales on this rally if not already done so. The president's gut told him that if Isreal decapitated the top Iranian echelon of leaders and our military decimated Iran's air defenses, air force, drone and missile forces and sank Iran's navy that they would capitulate and quickly sue for peace. The military operation, Operation Epic Fury, was very successful but the surrender never came. Military objectives were achieved but much to the president's chagrin, his gut was wrong and Iran fights on with no sign of a capitulation. Even after paying them to stop by ending sanctions and unfreezing assets, they didn't stay bought. The president is caught in the "escalation trap" searching for whatever…

Friday's WASDE report helped give the bulls leverage by trimming stocks below expectations. Focus is back to weather where above average heat is providing market support. We need to differentiate between above average heat and extreme heat. Extreme heat showing temperatures 10+ degrees above normal does not seem to carry much past this weekend. Meanwhile above average temperatures (5 degrees above average) appear to linger well into August for much of the Corn Belt. As stated last week, as long as rainfall continues this is not necessarily concerning.   Dr. Elwynn Taylor created a study that said crops did not begin to lose yield until they surpassed 140 cumulative stress degree days. According to Eric Snograss, as of Monday we have already reached nearly 90 in Central Iowa and 63 in the region around Sioux Falls, SD. By taking into account daily temperature forecast, we could potentially add another 50 through next Sunday before the heat abates…essentially taking us right up to the 140 stress degree days breaking point. After that temperatures begin to ease off. Overnight temperatures also matter as temperatures below 74 degrees can help crops to "cool off". Weekend temperatures do see a few evenings slightly above…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/13/2026 There is Still Potential for Monster Crops PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I have heard it said that farmers should not make too much of their own cropping conditions when making assumptions about US crop production as a whole. They shouldn't make too much of conditions, good or bad, in their own backyard. We report what our corn crop conditions and production is on our farms in Clay County NW IA in this report and they may or may not reflect what you see on yours. It has been my experience however that what we see on our farm does tend to correlate with national corn production. A couple years ago when we experienced floods that harmed yields and caused some prevent plant. USDA cut its initial projected yield and there were more prevent plant acres. Years in which our farms made record historical corn yields, such as last year, so did the US yield. Our regional production success shows up in the basis of our local ethanol plant, a Valero plant in Hartley. The plants' basis ran premium CBOT…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/10/2026 Friendly Crop Report Leaves Weather to Lead the Way PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Grain futures carried forward on their bullish transition from June to July, finishing the week strong with help from friendly reactions to the crop reports. The July contracting deadlines passed along with the June stocks and acreage reports, providing relief from selling pressure that had mounted up until the last day of last month. New lows below $4 for corn and $11 for soybeans were reversed into higher settlements on June 30th and then strength was extended through the short holiday week. Rains were mostly lighter than called for through Fourth of July weekend before attention shifted onto a hot, dry forecast ahead. Speculators grabbed hold of the weather headlines and used it as motivation to jump in and ride the wave of investment money that lifted the grains on Monday. Returning conflict with Iran cast a shadow over markets and stoked uncertainty as the week went on, but Friday's reports bookended a decidedly bullish week for grain futures. Corn ending stocks were lower than expected…

Part 2  It will grate on president Trump enough that most trade with Canada and Mexico is tariff-free because of the USMCA that it will just be a matter of the timing when he invokes a break-up. Trump believes his tariff policy was vindicated by the decision by Toyota to move production of its Tacoma truck and SUVs from its Baja, Mexico plant to San Antonio, Texas by 2030. Toyota is seen my many as the smartest global automaker, having navigated the EV challenge that cost many auto companies $billions from overcommitting to the EV market. Toyota trucks assembled in Mexico do not qualify for USMCA North American content so are hit with a 15% tariff, with tariffs overall costing the company $8.5 bln in the last operating year. It will cost the company $3.6 bln to move the plant to the US. Doesn't take long to pay for that in tariff savings. The president has stated that he sees no reason why autos sold in the US should be made in Canada.   Canada Declares Independence: Canada sees the split with the US as being a whole lot more than about the USMCA. Many believe that Canadian Prime Minister…

The move this week confirmed a key reversal bottom that was well telegraphed.  What we don't yet know is whether it is a short term low or something more permanent.  What has changed?  Above average heat appears to linger longer than previously estimated….through July and perhaps well into August.  South Dakota (and parts of North Dakota and Minnesota) look to catch the brunt of it with temperatures reaching 10 degrees above average before pulling back slightly later this month.  Coincidentally, those same areas experienced below average precipitation to start the season adding additional stress to crops.  The majority of the Corn Belt will experience 5 to 6 degrees above average.  While it may not be extreme heat, water demand by crops will increase.   The market response following the holiday weekend would indicate that significant yield was lost this week.   One private analyst has already announced they are trimming the national corn yield by 2 bpa.  While that is still possible, I do not yet believe that to be the case yet.  While not true everywhere, much of Iowa is well positioned for heat with a full water table.  I drove through large portions of Central Iowa and NW Iowa…