Katie Geerdes

The weather forecast seems to be much in line with what we covered last week, still showing a much wetter pattern in the Eastern Cornbelt and much drier to the West.  The big news is that parts of the Midwest might get some snow this weekend along with a brief cold snap.  We are looking for up to 2” of snow on Saturday.  Temperatures have actually been extremely warm this spring, with the state of Iowa ranking the 127th warmest out of the last 132 years on record.  Soil temperatures have now been consistently above 50 degrees across the state, but the risk of frost remains high.  Planting before that cold front this weekend would make me nervous.  Most farmers will wait until Monday to start corn.   Not surprisingly, US drought monitor shows major improvement in the Eastern Cornbelt and the short-term weather forecasts looks to reinforce that.  The next two weeks will bring 2” to 4” across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Eastern Iowa.  I am not sure they need it anymore.  The GFS and ECMWF agree that it will be dry in the Western Cornbelt, but differ on the degree of dryness.  The GFS shows a more profound…

Part 1 ENSO Primer Part 2 El Nino is Now Screaming our Way   Climate forecasters are as clear as I have ever seen them that we are entering a strong El Nino phase of our climate. I do not remember them ever going so far as to predict a “Super El Nino” before as many models now forecast. What is an El Nino? It has become a kitchen table topic of discussion but few are really sure.   I thought that I would start with a primer on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in part one of a report and then share what is being forecast in part 2 to follow. The world has been setting temperature records during La Nina which is the cool water phase of the ENSO so scientists are fascinated to what a strong El Nino, which is the warm water phase, will do to planet temps and subsequent climate conditions. Science is always renewing and with that, a degree of uncertainty piggybacks the change.   The Mystery of the "New" La Niña: Why the Climate Engine is Changing its Playbook. Imagine a force so powerful it can reshape weather across the entire planet—flooding…

There may be no other place in the world where mankind has been as lethal to its own species by its own hand as in the Mid-East. That is because civilization ranges back in age there for several millennium. That is a lot of time spent hating each other. Alexander the Great…Genghis Khan, Caliphates and empires along with names of rulers and conquerors too many to keep track of, have carved out a history of war with their spears and swords driven by hate and greed. It has been called the cradle of civilization but it is also its crypt. In my opinion the development of civilization stalled there as they have never been able to get beyond the eye-for-an-eye culture ingrained into their DNA. Christianity was the best opportunity to break with their cultural generational genocide but instead of showing the other cheek, the Christian Crusaders drew their swords and joined in the slaughter of the Saracens. Men killed there in the name of one God or another for centuries. I find it concerning that the current conflict is still being fought with a religious zealot undertone from both sides. They say that history repeats itself and there is no…

The Dow Jones stock index rallied over 1,000 points after President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. Stronger stocks over the last two weeks followed five consecutive weeks of losses. Heightened market volatility derived from conflict in the Middle East came almost exactly one year after historic price swings were sparked by concerns about tariffs. The first two weeks of April 2025 featured daily trading sessions with Dow Jones futures down about 1,700 points, then down 2,200, up 2,900, and down 1,000.  Both periods of turmoil were felt differently in the grain market, but the present is like the past here in that there are major issues distracting the usual focus away from the developing spring planting season. Decisions about planting and marketing often involve consideration of where prices are compared to last year, so see what stands out about performance over the previous 52 weeks:   This week's break extended nearby corn futures into a loss of about 6 percent from a year ago. Even with the buildup of inventories from a record 2025 crop, farmers were turning relatively tight-fisted with cash sales again, which helped to force slight improvement for basis. Sales can slow at this time of…

USDA WASDE Uptakes: With only a few tweaks, USDA used mostly last month's WASDE numbers in their April update. They will take a more aggressive look ahead in their May report. The 2.127 bln bushel corn and 350 mln bushel soybean carryover projections were unchanged. There was no change in the corn balance sheet and a 35 mln bushel transfer from exports to the crush in soybeans. They increased the wheat carryover by 7 mln bushels to 938 mln. Brazil and Argentina's corn/soybean production estimates were left unchanged. World ending corn stocks were increased by 2 mmts to 294.8 mmts. World ending soybean stocks were reduced .5 mmt to 124.8 mmts. The biggest change was in world ending stocks of wheat…a 6.1 mmt increase to 283.1 mmts. Back now to the weather and planting prospects. Local cash corn basis has improved 14 cents here since price later contracts were priced in late March. Farmers will be going to the field soon rather than moving corn. More rain is forecast here with warming temps. Soil moisture temps desired for planting should catch up with crop insurance dates (April 10th corn/April 15th soybeans) here by the weekend. High N prices may trim…

Following the Iran ceasefire agreement, the grain market appears to be holding up relatively well all things considered.  We had been giving back war premium prior to this ceasefire and so it would make sense that when the actual ceasefire is announced, reactions were thus a bit more muted.  December corn closed at $4.70 on February 27th, the day before massive operations began against Iran and we are currently only 4 cents over that.  Undoubtedly managed money has been building a long position and may look to defend it.  There will be many details that need to be worked out related to the Iran conflict, but we expect focus will shift more towards the fundamentals, principal among those being weather.  There are reasons to be bullish, but most of them can be nullified by a positive weather outlook.   April rainfall appears to be mostly cooperative.  The earliest my soybeans have ever been planted is April 23rd, and I expect they will be planted before that this year.  Temperature outlooks lean normal to above average for approximately 80% of the Corn Belt.  We see drought risks being limited to the outer edges of the Corn Belt in the next couple…

04/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Ceasefire Heard Round the World On the Grains Soy oil and wheat futures faced heavy selling pressure overnight, following the crude oil market sharply lower after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran just ahead of Tuesday evening’s deadline from President Trump. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans rebounded from a gap-lower start and are trading narrowly mixed this morning, with old-crop firmer and new-crop mildly weaker. The broader marketplace response was as expected as traders removed risk premiums. Energy markets, led by crude oil plunged, global stocks and bonds rallied and metals surged, while the U.S. dollar index is under heavy pressure. Key will be the response to the broad knee-jerk reaction overnight. The U.S. has halted all offensive operation in Iran, subject to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister said that passage through the strait will be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” President Trump said the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait. Meanwhile, Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Kuwait, Qatar and the United…

Good Question asking… Why Can't We Stop the Drones?... or at least identify them? Yes, there have been numerous reports of drones flying near U.S. airbases here in the US and near bases abroad including major incidents at Langley AFB, Wright-Patterson AFB, Hill AFB, and U.S. bases in the UK (RAF Mildenhall, Lakenheath, Feltwell, Fairford) and Germany (Ramstein Air Base) as well as European and US commercial airports. Potential intentions range from hobbyist activity to intelligence gathering, prompting increased military attention and calls for stronger defenses against these incursions.   Small drones were spotted flying recently near and over Air Force bases in Utah, Ohio, and Germany… Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed—in addition to the arrest of a Chinese citizen who allegedly used a drone to snap photos of a Space Force base—as a rash of incursions around military installations expands. Unauthorized drones flew over Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home of a B-52 bomber wing, multiple times the week of March 9. At the start of U.S. operations against Iran on Feb. 28, small drones seen flying over a "strategic U.S. installation" were defeated, the head of U.S. Northern Command told lawmakers. Barksdale announced that it was implementing a "shelter-in-place" order after the drone incursion. We are at war so drones over US bases anywhere are being taken seriously.   The primary question…

I guess it is good news. After several days of port call in Split, Croatia    where repairs and resupply occurred, the USS Ford is going back into the theater rather than coming home. The USS Ford carrier battle group has been on one of the longest deployments in US Navy history hitting 282 days as of April 2nd. This record-breaking deployment is expected to reach 11 months, potentially exceeding the recent 341-day high set by the USS Nimitz. A normal deployment is 6 months. In many ways the USS Ford is a big computer. As we all know computers require software updates and rebooting every so often. Much of this has to be done in a port. Non-battle issues with the carrier started occurring with its sewer plumbing breaking (Got the "loo" fixed on Artimus II for Easter as well) and a 30-hour fire in its laundry area occurred causing smoke problems in the crew berthing area of the ship.   There are lots of differences between Ford and Nimitz class carriers. One of the biggest is the aircraft launch mechanism. Ford's is electro-magnetic (EMALS) while Nimitz carriers use a steam system. The Ford launch system can put up well…

The stock market gave a strong impression via the strong relief rally early this week that it knows something about the timing as to when the war with Iran will end gleaned from the heavy hints dropped by the president. Mondays low could be tested but should serve as strong support as a candidate for becoming the Iran war low in the S&P. I previously took profit on my S&P put too soon. I am going to assume that some traders know things that are privileged information that we are not privy to as the public. In other words, the stock market may be acting on privileged information other than investor consensus. I do not think that is fair but in this case I hope this information is correct. I have said that it did not make sense to me to spend American lives opening the Strait of Hormuz when the US has no need for the oil. That was why we worked so hard to become energy independent.   The media has evidently been doing a good job of informing us of what the President wants us to know as I noted almost nothing in his presidential address that…