Katie Geerdes

Grain futures had a quiet, lightly traded week that saw everyone settle in for harvest while traders were also waiting for direction after the Federal Reserve rate cut decision late Wednesday. Corn and wheat futures broke their three-week streaks of price gains, but soybeans finished higher for a fifth straight week. Now 10 days out from the start of October, corn and soybeans are entering seasonal windows that have been historically bullish for futures prices, even when harvest has been in full swing.   Two of the seasonal trades tracked by Moore Research include being long March corn from September 30 - October 23 and long November soybeans from October 3 - 27. The track record is winning for 13 out of 15 years for corn and 14 of 15 for soybeans.   Corn futures bounced briefly in early October last year, but then turned back down toward a low that would not be established until February of this year. Soybean strength was held longer into last November before prices would also drop throughout most of the winter. The 2022 season was split between soybean futures making a clear low in October while it was December before corn carved out…

Part 2 of 3 Not all tariffs are bad or unjustified. When a country like China subsidizes its export industry so that it becomes competitive because of those subsidies, the countries where industries are harmed have the right of self-defense in use of countervailing tariffs. The tariffs essentially originate because of actions first initiated in China. China has damaged and even eliminated industries in the EU and US with its state entities and domestic subsidies. China now overproduces goods and has been warned by Treasury Secretary Yellen, in a visit there that it must stop. Its refusal to do so prompted the Biden Administration to levy more tariffs.   Much of China's growth came as the result of state enterprises subsidizing Chinese exports. China has been an export predator. It subsidized industries to provide jobs and fuel growth so that these industries could continue producing despite being unprofitable. It worked for them up to this point.   Cutting and pasting from Wikipedia, "According to Dartmouth economist Douglas Irwin, tariffs have served three primary purposes: "to raise revenue for the government, to restrict imports and protect domestic producers from foreign competition, and to reach reciprocity agreements that reduce trade barriers. President Theodore…

All eyes are on the rainfall maps in Brazil, looking for any indication that the rainy season is coming back to life. September rainfall averages are usually less than 2", but they do allow the farmer to begin the process of restoring moisture in their soil bank. Most farmers will look for at least 3" before they feel comfortable shifting to high gear on planting speed. There have been some reports of late September rains, but we cannot yet confirm anything substantial. Ten-day weather anomalies continue to show below average rainfall. While the longer-term forecasts are rarely as accurate, the European 30-day weather anomaly does show moisture building into mid-October. It is too soon to confirm anything, but if that forecast is accurate, soybean seeding could still begin on time in the Center West region. The GFS model, however, is much less generous with rainfall.   If we want to believe the European model, the closer we get to October 1st, the more precipitation in the ECMFW comes drifting into Mato Grosso. The Eastern side of the state shows next to nothing while the Center part of the state shows up to half an inch. The Northwest corner of the…

Part 1 of 3 There is history that tariffs came before income taxes as the means to fund the government. We know this because tariffs provided most of the revenue that funded the US government from the birth of the country up until 1913 when the US adopted the income tax which replaced tariffs. The concept of tariffs providing the revenue to fund the country is being revisited in this century by DJT, who sees tariffs as the solution to many of our fiscal problems including the deficit. They are the other side of his tax cuts, being seen by him as the means to replace lost domestic tax revenue. He loves the concept that the rest of the world would or could be made to pay our way in that world. He does conveniently leave out the fact that they may not want to cooperate with this economic model.   Countries, friends and foe alike, will not take the imposition of tariffs on the levels proposed by DJT lying down. They will retaliate with tariffs of their own as well as construct new economic and political alliances to benefit and protect themselves from the loss of US market access.…

Below you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk.   Grains Quiet... For Now   You can copy and paste the link below to take you to this morning's episode.   https://youtu.be/8tzuEqXTWZs?si=eTtMpcXzZb70rBBv   On the Grains   Good Tuesday morning everybody, yesterday we got the weekly crop progress numbers from our "somewhat" friendly USDA. Here we go, Corn was up 1% at 65% G/E vs. 51% LY. While it's hard to imagine that sitting here in Minnesota, a 1% increase isn't much to dispute either way. A client called in yesterday from Illinois and reported that areas that didn't spray for fungicide are running 50-80 bpa less than those that did, while he did admit most everyone sprayed so I would expect that to be a small area. Soybeans were off just 1% at 64% G/E vs. 52% LY.   Harvest progress, corn harvest progress came in at 9% this week, that's up from 5% last week and up slightly over the average of 6%. Soybean harvest was reported at 6% vs the average of 3%. It's time, let's roll. For some reason I am more excited this year to see what we have than I have been in…

Harvest is rushing forward at us as crop maturity accelerates. Harvest has to have begun somewhere. It has not been an ideal finish to the growing season as August turned dry and September has stayed that way causing the fill to run out of gas, even in places that had flooded earlier in the year. The weak finish should mean that the highest USDA yield estimate for corn/soybeans was seen this month. Soybeans here are quickly yellowing and harvest will begin soon. My soybeans, 2.5 maturity, were finished being planted June 5th. They are just starting to show a yellow leaf here and there along field edges with the bulk of the field still grass green. The forecast looks good however with no frost seen coming yet. We have had moisture locally and have had time enough in the growing season where an APH soybean yield is still possible but not probable for all.   My corn, harvested as silage, was field appraised at 188 bpa which is 53 bpa below my APH. All yields here will be extremely variable. Corn planted in April on well drained fields could yield in APH territory. There is not much of it and…

Brazil weather forecasts seem to agree that most of the countries soybean production area will remain dry in the month of September. A seasonal moratorium that establishes a crop production window has been established in Brazil to dictate when specific crops can and cannot be planted. This is done to help control the spread of diseases that flourish in a country without winter kill. They have been pushing the start date for planting back earlier in an attempt to give the second crop corn that follows more time to progress. That moratorium was lifted September 7th in Mato Grosso. Despite that, we don't see any great hurry for producers to begin planting. A very small percentage of growers begin in September anyway. But that changes quickly.   Historically farmers in Mato Grosso are 50% planted by October 15th.  While there is still plenty of time for that to happen, a series of events will need to take place for that to occur. To be 50% planted by October 15th, farmers will need to begin planting in force by early October. For farmers to begin planting early October, there will need to be some solid precipitation by late September. Currently there…

The corn harvest is already over for me. A dairy heifer grower located just a couple miles away from one of our farms harvested the corn as silage. They buy it on a per bushel basis using the field appraisal done by the crop insurance adjustor. That is bushels that the ethanol plant here will not get. That eliminates my harvest cost and grain handling costs. Likely reduces harvest field loss as well. They bring back manure. I have not bought commercial P&K other than what is in starter in many years. My fertilizer cost is primarily N. The 235-acre field yielded 188 bpa. That was about 20 bpa more than I expected but well below the APH of 241 bpa and last year's 261. It will bring down my APH a few bushels for next year. It was a poor crop by our standards all due to record flooding here. When I realized that my crop yield would not reach guaranteed insured bushels, I stopped spending on elective inputs. What surprised me was how healthy the corn was…no disease and no pests. Use of fungicide would have been a waste of money. Don't know if that was attributable to…