Joe Camp

Grains are set up for a firmer start to follow up on a strong close from Friday. The forecast remains mostly dry for the Midwest this week, but the determining influence for the market will be by what degree storms in the South possibly poke up into Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. In the Headlines The new week kicks off with an OPEC meeting, where members of the cartel will decide on possibly making another oil production cut in addition to the 2 million barrel per day reduction that has been in place since last fall. WTI crude oil futures spent a couple of days trading below $70 last week before rebounding following news of a debt deal and after Friday morning’s strong jobs report. Export sales were a mixed bag last week, including the lowest total of the marketing year for wheat, but some signs of strength for corn and soy demand. For wheat, prior export commitments are being cleaned up and cancelled or switched if they could not be priced before the end of the marketing year (May 31st). Old-crop corn sales were only about half of the weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s target, but they were positive for the…

New Corn hedge Recco: It is time to hedge new crop corn on this 4rth wave rally. I am cancelling our previous recommendations to hedge in March 2024 futures and opting to use the December 23 contract now. I am starting at 536 and scaling up incrementally every 6 cents with equal sales at 542 and 548 until I have covered my expected production. I will also add to these futures hedges with call option sales using $6 calls or higher to supplement the net sales price. That should add another 20 cents or more from the sale of calls which is a risk but that is the game. This added risk of selling calls is of course up to you.  I do not intend to hold these hedges to harvest but intend to take profit on a decline below 491 as 5th wave lows are made. I would think that the C-wave would bottom prior to harvest.  I will store the physical crop and if we can see 5 waves down for Wave-5 of C, we will try to buy the C-wave low. Grains look open for a higher start when trading resumes tonight at 7:00 pm central, but…

Grains are vulnerable to follow-through selling and spillover pressure from financial market nervousness over the debt ceiling, but futures have various points of technical support to test close by. In the Headlines The nearby corn and soybean futures spreads weakened last week as traders turned more bearish about export demand and processing margins. Unwinding of the bull spreads was encouraged by another Chinese corn export cancellation and following a disappointing soybean crush report. The July/September corn spread fell from its Monday peak of 82 1/2 cents down to a close of 60 cents on Friday. The July/August bean spread fell from 78 to 59 1/4 cents. The stock market turned lower along with the dollar index during the middle of the session on Friday following a breakdown of the debt ceiling talks between Republican legislators and the White House. President Biden said he would be speaking with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Sunday about coming together on a deal that would allow the federal government to avoid default, something that the Treasury Department has warned could come as soon as June 1st. Hiroshima, Japan was the host of a weekend summit for the Group of Seven (G7) members that include…