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11/03/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
T-minus 2 days until the election. Traders are factoring in the news of Harris leading Trump 47 to 44 percent in Iowa. The forecast came as a surprise against previous predictions in a state that went for President Trump by solid margins in 2016 and 2020. The poll of Iowa voters conducted for the Des Moines Register has been known for accuracy; however, it was contrasted by an Emerson College survey that had Trump still holding a sizable lead. Chatter on the subject seemed aimed toward giving Harris advanced odds relative to last week, which could initially lean bullish for the grains by way of speculative short-covering. In the Headlines December corn futures dropped 3/4-cent last week. November beans fell 5 1/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures lost a penny and Dec KC wheat futures gave up 5 1/4. December live cattle were down $3.77 while November feeders finished the week lower by $2.75. December lean hogs rallied $4.40. The order of events begins with the election on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 1 pm central Thursday, with the week capped off by the November crop reports at 11 am Friday. Uncertain is the timing…
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10/27/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Grain futures may still be stuck in the loop of starting on the defensive after closing weaker the previous Friday, which is how the last several weeks of have went. More of the strong grain export data could help spark an upside turnaround for prices if there is also support from the outside markets. Traders in all markets will have this as the last full week to adjust positions ahead of the election. In the Headlines December corn futures gained 10 1/2 cents last week. November beans rebounded by 17 3/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures lost 3 3/4 cents and Dec KC wheat futures fell 8 3/4. December live cattle were up $1.82 while November feeders finished the week higher by 97 cents. December lean hogs held positive by $1.85. U.S. harvest pressure and better weather shaping up in Brazil are the dominant negative factors for grain futures again at the start of the week, but last week showed that buyers can surface if they have motivation on the demand side. Last week featured flash export sales on all five mornings. While daily sales announcements should be expected regularly at this time of the year, the totals are stacking…
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10/20/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Some catch-up hedging from the weekend harvest may help weigh slightly on corn and soybean futures at the start. The next levels of important technical support are just below the market to test the interest of buyers. The flaring of conflict in the Middle East remains a wildcard that change the market attitude before it reopens. In the Headlines December corn futures lost 11 cents last week. November beans dropped 35 1/2 cents. December Chicago wheat futures gave back 26 1/4 cents and Dec KC wheat futures fell 23 3/4. October live cattle were down 97 cents while Oct feeders finished the week down $1.42. December lean hogs held positive by 17 cents. Nearby crude oil futures were lower by $6.34. The dollar index was up 0.63 for a third straight week up. December corn poked briefly below $4 last week before settling at $4.04 3/4. The contract low from August is $3.85, but first would be a filling of the September expiration gap that is left down to $3.94. A big upside objective for the bulls is $4.17, the 20-day moving average on both the continuous chart and the straight December. November soybean futures still have their contract low…
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10/13/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Grains may face light pressure in follow up of a poor finish on Friday. Soybeans could help spark a turnaround if China's market starts the week strong to help November futures hold support at $10. Banks will be closed and there will be no mail service on Monday for Columbus Day. Government bonds will not trade on Monday, but all other markets are open for a normal session. In the Headlines December corn futures lost 9 cents last week. November beans dropped 32 1/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures climbed 9 1/4 cents and Dec KC wheat futures gained 6 1/2. October live cattle were up $1.60 while Oct feeders finished the week up 12 cents. October lean hogs held positive by a nickel while the December was up $1.50. The U.S. and its allied military leaders were meeting in Germany this weekend along with a visit by President Biden to the Ramstein Air Base. This summit was organized to discuss the war needs of Ukraine. Notably open for a decision is whether Ukraine should be supplied with long-range missiles. Ukraine has recently upped its attacks within Russia's borders, but largely with the use of drones. There was a critical…
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10/06/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Grains likely face some pressure at the start of the week as hedgers catch up after a busy harvest weekend. This week shapes up to be possibly the biggest harvest week of the year. An eventual turnaround back higher would fit with the speculative sentiment having shifted more bullish for agricultural futures and most other commodities. In the Headlines December corn futures were up 6 3/4 cents last week. November beans dropped 28 cents. December Chicago wheat futures climbed 9 3/4 cents and Dec KC wheat futures gained 21 1/4. October live cattle were up $2.55 while Oct feeders finished the week better by $3.25. October lean hogs were up $1.97 and the December contract earned $2.77. The Friday Commitments of Traders report (see below) showed funds with the smallest net-short positions of the year in corn and wheat, with the soybean net-short very close to the year's low. The spec soybean oil holding turned net-long. Just as much attention is being paid to the producer/merchant traders that involve elevators hedging grain purchases from farmers. The commercial corn position was most recently net-short by about -157,000 contracts compared to the year before at -34,000 contracts. The bigger commercial corn net-short…
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