Joe Camp

Grains were called lower in continuation of the selloff from late last week. Possible strength for crude oil tied to the Middle East could see buyers return in commodities. In the Headlines Grain futures tumbled on Thursday's session after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said soybeans were "all take care of," seemingly indicating that there would be no additional treatment of the subject during President Trump's visit to China. Further disappointment was realized on Friday as there came no new agricultural purchase agreements announced from the meeting with Xi Jinping. Traders now wait for China to resume purchasing U.S. soybeans in fulfillment of the previous promise made to buy 25 million metric tons in each of the next three seasons. Israeli strikes continued against Hezbollah in Lebanon while Iran also reportedly launched a drone attack on an Abu Dhabi nuclear plant. Along with a post from President Trump about it being the "calm before the storm," there were more indications that the U.S. and Israel were preparing for another major military offensive against Iran. Plans were likely to focus on targeting Iranian nuclear assets rather than securing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The annual Wheat Quality Council tour finished…

Grains were called to open firmer following a strong finish on Friday, but commodities could later take on pressure from lower crude oil if further de-risking occurs in connection to developments with Iran. In the Headlines The public was awaiting details on Iran's response to a U.S. peace plan offer. President Trump had yet to comment on the result. Meanwhile, Iranian drones had been activated again, including in an attack against a ship near Qatar. Sunday afternoon news about U.S.-Iran war negotiations would guide the market open and form the basis of expectations about President Trump's trip to China planned for Thursday and Friday. The possibility of another meeting postponement hinged on Iran accepting a deal or not. The summit otherwise has a range of outcomes for addressing Chinese agricultural purchases, including the particular question of how soybeans are addressed. Traders will watch for reports of soybean trade activity in the lead up to the meeting. Asked on Sunday about government interventions that could possibly include suspending the federal gasoline tax, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he was "open to all ideas" for managing high prices at the pump. The Department of Energy has been writing swap contracts to sell…

Grains were called toward a softer open while the news was quiet for crude oil, which was what traders would watch for change before Sunday night. In the Headlines Headlines were mixed as war news was relatively limited to this point in the weekend. President Trump on Saturday said he was "reviewing a plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can't imagine it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done..." A lower start for crude oil would snap a streak of nine straight Sundays of opening higher since the initial strikes against Iran. Moore Research calls out two seasonal trades for buying June crude oil and June RBOB gasoline. Both have entry dates of May 3 and exit dates of May 17. Both were winners in 13 of the last 15 years (large losses were incurred in the off years). There were more eyeballs on the currency market last week after an intervention by the Japanese government rallied the yen, which put weight on the dollar index. The yen was dropping toward its weakest level against the dollar since 1990 before the policymakers spent an estimated…

Grains looked poised for slight strength at the open behind crude oil advancing back toward a test of $100 per barrel, but with all markets still subject to shedding risk premium on the possible next headlines about de-escalation with Iran. In the Headlines Sunday headlines were dominated by the shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where President Trump may have been the target of a gunman who was apprehended. The suspect was a U.S. citizen but his motives were unknown as of yet. The top news before Saturday night was that President Trump cancelled negotiations with Iran. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner were previously set to join Vice President JD Vance on the trip to Pakistan, but Vance dropped out before the others were pulled back. Trump posted about Iran: "Nobody knows who is in charge, including them." The rest of the weekend was being monitored for skirmishes around the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. Navy was working within to clear Iranian sea mines. The count continues for what could be nine straight Sundays of crude oil futures opening higher since the initial strikes against Iran on February 28th. Oil futures held onto…