Joe Camp

Following a weaker close on Friday, grain futures may face slight technical pressure at the open while traders wait for guidance from the oil market. The forecast for Brazil is dry again this week, but there is more rain next week than what was expected when the market finished trading on Friday. First notice day for December grain futures will come on Thursday this week, the last day of the month. In the Headlines There was discord within the OPEC cartel that delayed a meeting originally scheduled for this weekend. Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers were in disagreement over a plan for additional output cuts, particularly because Angola and Nigeria had not been meeting their production targets anyway. Another meeting is scheduled for this Thursday. Doubt about the extension of OPEC production cuts joined news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to weigh on crude oil futures at the end of last week. The latest planting progress numbers from Brazil pegged soybean seedings at 75 percent complete, which was 12 points behind normal. Rio Grande do Sul was the biggest laggard, having only 26 percent of the crop sown. That state is in Southeastern Brazil, where…

Grains face follow-through pressure after a weak finish on Friday. Traders will be watching whether significant rains materialize in Brazil at the start of the week. Buying interest has the potential to develop if large export sales are reported at 8 am central. The market will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday before the grains open on Friday at 8:30 and trade a shortened session until 12:05. In the Headlines Last week’s grain price action was all about weather in Brazil as selling pressure developed based on unexpected rains popping up ahead of a wetter forecast over the next few days. Rains are expected to arrive starting Monday with accumulated totals of up to 2.5 inches. The forecast is back to being dry and warm during the transition of November to December and potentially beyond. The latest estimates on Brazilian planting progress measured soybean seedings still 10 percent behind the average pace, at 68 percent in total. The top growing state of Mato Grosso was pegged at 97 percent complete, but that figure did not account for potential replant needs, which some sources have estimated are at least 20 percent of the crop. Corn and soybean prices were pressured early…

Grains look to open steady to slightly firmer with help from more worry about dry weather in Brazil. Technical bargain buying may also be attempted after futures rebounded off their lows on Friday. Another round of large export sales announcements would likely help spark buying if they show up during the morning market break at 8 am central. In the Headlines Basis values are noted as firm across much of the country, particularly for corn as cash bids strengthen relative to futures prices. Farmers are reluctant sellers after the recent break lower for board prices. Processing demand is robust and offsetting some of the persisting weakness around the river markets. Soybean basis was not strengthening quite as much in most areas as farmers were rewarding the recent futures rally of more than $1 from the October low. Soybean basis will still be thought to have plenty of upside potential now that export demand looks to be picking up. A pair of very large soybean export deals were recorded on Thursday morning last week. The timing of the sales lessened their importance in the market, since they were announced before the crop report was released later that day. Just more than…