Joshua Van Ryswyk

SPECIAL HARVEST TIME REQUEST: Thanks to a host of you who have already emailed us yield results with some helpful photos that show what you’re describing. We’re collecting early yield data in a more systematic and meaningful way than random hearsay. We’re asking you to email us early yield results for corn and/or beans to report@commstock.com with the following data points: Your actual yield Your APH yield Whether your yield “met”, “fell short” or “beat” your expectations Your county and state As we tabulate results from this voluntary client survey, we’ll get a better “feel” for what to expect in USDA’s October WASDE. The more of you who participate, the more valuable our survey results may prove! Thank you in advance for participating! (Some telling photographs would also be most welcome! (YOU”LL SEE A SAMPLE IN “OTHER AG HEADLINES AND HOTLINES” BELOW.) SOYBEAN MEAL COVERAGE RECCO DAY 2: Use recent break to hedge 50% of 1st qtr. SBM needs in March ’24 futures. On the Grains: Grains are firm in overnight trade as we go to press. Yesterday’s action was brutal when it started off with very disappointing export sales. At only 567,000 tonnes, corn sales barely made the low end of expectations that ranged from 550K to…

SPECIAL HARVEST TIME REQUEST: We’d like to collect early yield data in a more systematic and meaningful way than random hearsay. We’re asking you to email us early yield results for corn and/or beans to report@commstock.com with the following data points: Your actual yield Your APH yield Whether your yield “met”, “fell short” or “beat” your expectations Your county and state As we tabulate results from this voluntary client survey, we’ll get a better “feel” for what to expect in USDA’s October WASDE. The more of you who participate, the more valuable our survey results may prove! Thank you in advance for participating! (Some telling photographs would also be most welcome!) SOYBEAN MEAL COVERAGE RECCO DAY 1: Due to possible bottoming action, hedge 50% of 1st qtr. SBM needs in March ’24 futures. On the Grains: Grains are weak in overnight trade with soybeans down hardest. Monthly trade data for August showing China’s purchases from Brazil were up 45% while August U.S. sales to China were down by 58% was the “headline” driver, even though U.S. sales to China year-to-date are actually up by 14%. We get a new batch of weekly export sales at 7:30 that could set the tone for morning trade. The range of expectations…

On the Grains: Corn and soybeans are steady in overnight trade while wheat is firm again after yesterday’s higher close. We’re keeping an eye on basis as harvest picks up momentum and yesterday the national average corn basis slipped but a penny and the soybean basis unchanged. I talked about ethanol margins being the highest since Dec. of ’21 on Monday and crush margins for beans are solid as well with the value of a bushel of beans in meal and oil at 16.39 yesterday. The Fed meets today and everybody expects them to hold rates steady, but carefully warning the fight against inflation isn’t over and refusing to rule out further hikes if it heats up. That’s obligatory caution talk. There are two more Fed meetings this year but a growing consensus expects no further hikes until they begin cutting rates by mid-2024. The crude oil market action feeds into slowing inflation. There’s been a steep rally but it ran out of gas (pun intended) yesterday when it collided with weekly chart resistance at last fall’s highs. It’s also overbought and due for a correction down to the uptrend line, which should hold. Overnight strength in wheat after yesterday’s…

On the Grains: Overnight markets are soft again as harvest picks up steam and basis softens. Yesterday the national average basis for corn and soybeans declined by 3 and 4 cents, respectively. After yesterday’s close the weekly crop condition ratings from NASS didn’t decline any more than expected Premiums for spot delivery over post-Oct. 1 “new crop” delivery are rapidly disappearing. World leaders are gathering in New York this week, the UN’s biggest conclave of the year to discuss issues ranging from collective efforts to thwart climate change to the war in Ukraine. That topic has Ag market implications. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy will address the gathering in person this year rather than remotely, as last year. President Putin of Russia and Xi of China will be conspicuous by their absence. Biden is set to speak this morning with the only guidance on what he’ll say from White House National Security advisor Jake Sullivan summed up as “using American leadership to solve the world’s problems” without further comment on which problems will be included. Of note, Sullivan also said that “on the sidelines” of the General Assembly, Biden will join the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in the…

FALL FERTILIZER RECCO DAY 3: The months of down-trending fertilizer prices appear to have bottomed out. Per last Thursday’s Weekly Retail Fertilizer Update price fall fertilizer needs now if you haven’t already. On the Grains: Corn and soybeans are steady in overnight trade despite early harvest picking up pace through the weekend. Wheat is weaker. Part of the weakness we saw in corn and beans Friday was likely what’s termed “pre-hedging pressure” as cash merchandisers take short positions against what they anticipate purchasing from farmers through the weekend and can’t risk doing so unhedged. Steady overnight prices thus far shows they adequately anticipated what they bought. The light overnight pressure also shows bears weren’t much emboldened by Friday’s COT report showing funds added heavily to their net short position in corn. They sold nearly 41,000 more contracts through last Tuesday, taking their net short total to just shy of 135,000. Similarly, funds lightened up their net long position in soybeans by nearly 9,000 contracts yet remained net long just under 74,000. Expectation of traditional “harvest pressure” can be read into the fund action on both counts. We continue to suspect this harvest pressure may prove lighter than anticipated for two reasons….

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Harvest is now upon us and, with the way weather looks, it could be a year where the crop is put away much more quickly than normal. A mostly clear two-week outlook comes as an extension of the dry weather that has rushed crop maturity along. Corn maturity at 34 percent last week was 10 points ahead of last year. At this same point in 2012, corn was called 58 percent mature. Looking back at harvest progress in past years brings up a few points of comparison that may say something about what to expect next. 2012 was the fastest year on record that the corn harvest reached more than two-thirds complete. In most years, 65 percent or more of the harvest has been completed sometime in between the last week of October and the first week of November. In 2012, 69 percent of the harvest had been finished by the first week in October. While this year’s drought damage was not as widespread as it was in 2012, dry weather and the rush to maturity will no doubt have had a negative impact on yield outcomes. The silver…

FALL FERTILIZER RECCO DAY 2: The months of downtrending fertilizer prices appear to have bottomed out. Per Thursday’s Weekly Retail Fertilizer Update we’re recommending you price fall fertilizer needs now if you haven’t already. SOYBEAN RECCO UPDATE DAY 3: The bearish reaction to Tuesday’s WASDE was overdone and expect further declines in yield and ending stocks. That’s why we advised lifting hedges the next day. On the Grains: Grains are steady to mixed in low volume overnight trade as we go to press. There’s almost a sense of “stalemate” between elements of trading who see impending seasonal harvest pressure favoring patience with short positions and those in our camp who expect early yield results to prove short of expectations and short bought commercials welcoming and readily absorbing new crop deliveries. I’m monitoring cash basis as a good gauge of which view prevails and so far, it’s inconclusive. On a national average, cash basis slipped but a penny in corn, wheat and soybeans yesterday. The strong energy market is supportive to demand for both biodiesel and ethanol. Crude oil has moved above $90/barrel for the first time since last November. A growing consensus sees strength persisting as intentional supply reductions from OPEC+ are…

I have shared Geopoliticist Peter’s Zeihan’s concerns over the coming end of China and thought that I would share George Friedman’s similar take on the threat.  34 of 50 top Chinese real estate developers have defaulted on debt. Foreign investors are pulling out of Chinese stocks and Chinese capital investment in general. Beijing is no longer rolling over maturing US Treasuries needing the cash back home. Here goes from a transcript: One of the greatest underlying myths of the past years is that of the Chinese economic miracle and it was a miracle, is eternal.  I see China is weakening, becoming less of a force and the People’s Liberation Army as an internal security force.  It’s not going to attack anyone.  This China is not part of China. These factories don’t sell in China.  You can’t sell those products to people who are at a subsistence level agriculture life.  These are extensions of the west.  These factories are part of the American economy, the Australian economy, the European economy, but mostly the American economy.  If the American economy stops buying because we have a recession or we increase our savings rate. Then what happens is that the rate of growth…

FALL FERTILIZER RECCO DAY 1: The months of down trending fertilizer prices appear to have bottomed out. See the Weekly Retail Fertilizer Update at the end of today’s report and see why we’re recommending you price fall fertilizer needs now if you haven’t already. SOYBEAN RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: Past advice still has you 25% hedged in November futures. We think the bearish reaction to Tuesday’s WASDE was overdone and expect further declines in yield and ending stocks. Lift those hedges now and prepare to store beans. On the Grains: Corn and beans are steady to mixed and wheat a little on the soft side in low volume overnight trade. We start with weekly export sales at 7:30. They could set the tone for early trade. Here are the ranges of expectations: Corn – 500,000 to 1.1 million tonnes, soybeans – 600,000 to 1.450 million tonnes, and wheat – 250-600K tonnes. WASDE numbers are now “dialed in” and attention shifts to anecdotal reports of harvest results as they start to come in and a close watch on cash basis to gauge seasonal “harvest pressure.” I think it could be lighter than expected. Commercials are short-bought and likely to be ready takers…

On the Grains:
Selling subsided overnight after yesterday’s unexpectedly bearish reaction to WASDE numbers. Corn and beans are steady to firm and wheat is up again as this goes to press. Corn and soybean yields were lowered pretty much to the average trade estimate, but the drop in corn yield was more than offset by the 800,000 acre boost to planted acreage that actually boosted ending stocks slightly and left their average farm price unchanged at 4.90. What hurt more was the boost to global corn ending stocks. The trade was expecting them to decline about 1.4 million tonnes and instead were boosted by nearly 3 million to 314 million, which exceeded even the highest of pre-report trade guesses.
 
The break in soybeans yesterday was even harder to figure. USDA dropped the average yield to the average trade estimate so no surprise there. They raised acreage by 100,000 acres and cut both domestic crush and exports some, but still the net result was a 40 million bu. drop in ending stocks just 7 million bu. shy of the average trade estimate for a 47-million bu. reduction. They raised the average farm price forecast from last month by 20 cents per bu. – to $12.90. And unlike the negative surprise by raising global corn stocks, they still cut the global ending stocks for soybeans, just not as much as the trade was expecting by a fraction of a percentage point.