Joshua Van Ryswyk

04/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Concerns Expand to Freeze Watch On the Grains Wheat markets actively built on this week’s strong gains overnight, led by HRW contracts that are supported by crop concerns in the Plains – the latest being a freeze watch for key HRW areas Friday night/Saturday morning. The near-term technical challenge will be clearing the March high, which is less than a dime above the overnight high in July HRW. Soybeans traded lower overnight, while corn was caught in the middle and pivoted around unchanged. Grains have somewhat divorced from outside influences and are more fundamentally focused, with wheat needing to lead any move higher. Crude oil futures are around $1 higher this morning, despite reports the U.S. and Iran may seek a two-week extension of the original ceasefire that is set to expire next Tuesday – if not a more permanent truce. Front-month WTI crude oil is trading near the bottom of the month-long broad, choppy range and appears to have found a comfort zone just above $90 as traders await more details on a potential ceasefire. Bullish Biofuels Use Implications in NOPA Crush Data The National Oilseed Processors Association…

04/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Fear, Farmer Input Prices Diverging On the Grains Buyer interest built in corn and soybeans overnight, with both markets trading higher this morning. Winter wheat market initially extended this week’s gains overnight but are now under light pressure. Choppy trade is likely to continue short-term as traders decide whether to put more focus on geopolitics, weather or long-term fundamentals. Currently, all are having some influence, causing the back-and-forth price action. Front-month crude oil futures spiked down to their lowest level in three weeks overnight amid hints from President Trump that the war with Iran may be winding down. Trump said the war is "close to over" and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. However, crude oil futures rebounded more than $6 off their overnight lows as traders wait to see if Trump’s words are anything more than rhetorical. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the market’s fear gauge – has declined notably, signaling traders’ concerns with the war have eased. Input prices for farmers, especially fertilizer, remain troubling – see “Other Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below. Record Watch: NOPA March Soybean Crush The National…

04/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Risk Sentiment Continues to Flip-Flop On the Grains Grain and soy futures mildly firmed overnight, with the exceptions of soy oil (lower) and spring wheat (narrowly mixed). The general strength came in the face of weakness in crude oil, as there are hopes of additional peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Risk sentiment continues to flip-flop with new headlines coming out of the Middle East conflict.President Trump said that the “right people” in Iran still want a U.S.-Iran deal after talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that full efforts were being made to resolve the outstanding issues between the U.S. and Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart that although Iran was unable to reach an agreement with the U.S. over the weekend, negotiations had progressed on many issues. Importantly, China said it’s ready to play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the Middle East.Poor Winter Wheat Conditions Get Worse Winter wheat conditions declined one percentage point from the previous week to 34% good/excellent. That’s still six points below the five-year average, which also declined one…

04/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Whipsaw Continues as War Premiums Rebuilding On the Grains Wheat posted strong gains overnight, as traders started to rebuild some of the war premium they have recently removed. Soy oil rallied on support from strong overnight gains in the crude oil market. Corn also traded higher, while soybeans traded narrowly on both sides of unchanged. Global stock markets and bonds fell, along with metals. Basically, markets reversed their trends since the fragile ceasefire was reached less than a week ago. Weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down, putting the ceasefire between the two countries in jeopardy. The U.S. will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. ET, including the Strait of Hormuz and the waters of the Gulf of Oman. The blockade won’t impede vessels going to and from non-Iranian ports. Iran threatened ports in the Persian Gulf. War tensions have built. Plains Rains to Remain Hit-And-Miss Last week’s rains across the Plains were heavy in some areas, though dry western locations were largely missed. More of the same is likely this week. USDA’s winter wheat crop conditions this…

04/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video War Premium Gone from Grains Despite Geopolitical Mess On the Grains Corn and winter wheat futures are mildly favoring the downside this morning after two-sided trade throughout the overnight session. Soybeans are trading just above unchanged, along with spring wheat. Soymeal is firmer and soyoil is weaker as traders unwind long soyoil/short meal spreads. For the week, corn and wheat markets are sharply lower, while soybeans are near unchanged in a continuation of the nearly month-long consolidation pattern. Crude oil is firmer as traders wait to see if the planned meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan this weekend will take place – and more importantly – if talks produce a lasting ceasefire. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a potential major sticking point. Iran has reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, forcing ships to go through their so-called “toll both.” So… while the strait is technically “open,” it may be open only to those Iran is willing to let through or those willing to pay a tariff to proceed – reportedly $1 per barrel or up to $2 million per ship. Effectively… the strait remains closed.…

04/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Stabilize but Aren’t Stable Amid Fragile Ceasefire On the Grains Grain and soy futures strengthened overnight, as the wheat market recouped a portion of Wednesday’s sharp losses, corn futures regained what they lost and soybeans extended yesterday’s gains. Soyoil followed the crude oil market higher in a modest correction to Wednesday’s sharp losses. The broader marketplace is proceeding cautiously as traders wait to see if the fragile ceasefire holds and await the upcoming talks between U.S. and Iranian officials. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with limited ship movement as shipowners and insurer groups said more details will be needed to determine if safe transit is possible. Reports of strikes in the Middle East have eased, but Israel’s desire to keep up attacks on Lebanon is a potential stumbling block. Markets have stabilized from Wednesday’s sharp price moves but are not stable… far from it. Volatility will remain elevated until there’s much more certainty on the geopolitical front. WASDE Report Day… If It Matters USDA’s WASDE Report at 11 a.m. CT is expected to feature minor fine-tuning to its balance sheets, with the distinct possibility that USDA punts…

04/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rainy Forecast Trumps Below-Average Wheat Conditions On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of losses during the overnight session, despite a below-average initial winter wheat crop condition rating from USDA on Monday afternoon. Rains forecast over the central U.S. into at least mid-April pressured winter wheat markets to their lowest level in nearly two weeks. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans have worked off their overnight lows as soy oil has firmed along with crude oil. The broader marketplace is keenly watching the U.S./Iran war situation. Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Markets wait to see if there is a last-minute deal, if Trump again extends his deadline or if the U.S. and Israel unfurl another wave of attacks, expected to target Iranian bridges and power plants. HRW Crop Struggling; Rains on The Way USDA’s initial winter wheat crop condition ratings for the spring came in at 35% good/excellent, down 13 percentage points from last fall and six points below the five-year average. Conditions are especially poor in HRW states, while SRW…

04/06/2026 Trump Deadline, Key Crop Reports & Economic Data Coming Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and wheat favoring the downside early this morning while soy markets are slightly firmer. Crude oil futures showed initial price strength overnight but have weakened this morning while still reflecting elevated war premium as President Trump on Sunday issued a threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and blow up “everything over there,” before announcing what appeared to be a new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from geopolitical happenings, grain traders will get USDA’s initial winter wheat crop ratings of the spring this afternoon. Based on state level updates throughout winter, the good/excellent rating will fall from the 48% level reported both last fall and early April 2025. Weekly crop progress/conditions and the start of spring planting will put a greater focus on weather, especially with dryness/drought encompassing much of the U.S. crop area. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 80% of the country faced moisture deficits at the end of March, with varied levels of drought over 44% of…

04/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Fails to Calm Markets On the Grains Markets reversed Wednesday’s price action overnight as President Trump failed ease traders’ unease with the war. His Wednesday night address to the nation offered no clear timeline or breakthroughs on ending the conflict with Iran, only noting U.S. objectives would be completed “very soon,” while saying the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in next two to three weeks. Markets wanted clarity… Trump didn’t provide that. The lack of a clear timeline for ending the war eroded hopes that it might come to a speedy end and the Strait of Hormuz could open soon. Grain markets followed the crude oil market higher overnight, with soy oil leading the way, as traders rebuilt some war premium into prices. Crude oil prices are still well below the March 9 spike highs but are trading at the highest levels since that day. Market unease and volatility are elevated ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, with geopolitics remaining the No. 1 focus. Soy Crush, Corn-For-Ethanol Grind Decline in February but Up From Year-Ago U.S. processors crushed 214.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, down 6.1%…

04/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video No Fooling: Geopolitics Continue to Supersede Fundamentals On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of selling in the grain markets overnight. Wheat and corn more than erased Tuesday’s gains, while soybeans gave back about half of what they gained yesterday. Soy oil also retreated overnight, while soy meal traded higher. Much of traders’ focus remains on geopolitics and crude oil, which is under pressure, with WTI futures dipping below $100 overnight as President Trump said the war with Iran could end within a couple weeks. Trump will address the nation on the war situation at 8 p.m. CT. Markets will pay close attention as Trump is expected to outline his administration’s strategic objectives, including whether the U.S. will pursue a negotiated end to hostilities, maintain military pressure or shift toward a containment posture. Breakdown of USDA’s Reports: Markets Fail to Hold Fundamental Focus Following are results for USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report from Tuesday. Key Highlights: Traders reacted to Prospective Plantings more than Quarterly Grain Stocks, as the misses for March 1 stocks were minor for corn and average for soybeans compared to previous years. Implied…