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05/23/2024 Sentiment Shifting from Planting Delay Fears to “Rain Makes Grain”?

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains: Grains are mixed so far in overnight trade, with corn and beans steady-to-firm and wheat a little weaker as of 6am. Widespread heavy rains are now sweeping much of the Plains and parts of the Midwest that will again delay planting in many areas. However, after last week’s planting progress was surprisingly robust despite what was thought to be a generally “wet week” the week before, we’re entering the stage where the old mantra that “rain makes grain” is heard just as often in trade chatter.   Wheat harvest has already begun in Texas and a crop tour just completed by the Illinois Wheat Association made mockery of USDA’s recent suggestion that SRW yields might dip from last year’s record 87 to 83 bpa this year. The tour average came in at a whopping 104 bpa. This content is for members only.Log In Register
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05/22/2024 Grains Back on the Rebound as Rains Bog Planting and Demand Outlook Improves

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grain prices are rebounding from yesterday's losses in overnight trade with wheat once again leading with double-digit gains as of 6 am. While Russia's Ag Ministry talks gamely of record exports, yet another private Russian firm (IKAR) says drought and freeze damage portend a crop of 83.5l MMT, down 8 million from last year and 4.5 million below USDA's initial estimate of 88. Ukraine's crop was hurt as well and export prices are rising for both countries. As for corn and beans, severe storms (including several bad tornadoes in Iowa) have halted planting from eastern NE and SD across Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin again. Further we're seeing corn sales to top-customer Mexico remaining strong as drought conditions still plague that country into a 3rd straight year. There were large flash corn sales reported to both Mexico and Spain yesterday and '23 crop sales to Mexico as of May 9 are already at 778 million bu., up 43% from the year before. The demand side for beans may be firming up, too. The crush margin for central Illinois is back up to $2.73 per bu. as of yesterday. We're also learning the ferocious flooding in southern Brazil that has…
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05/21/2024 Grains Sag Overnight on Startling Planting Progress

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are weaker in overnight trade, mostly on surprise at how much planting progress was made in corn and beans was made last week. Wheat ratings slipped a bit, but that's offset by insistence from Russia's Ag Ministry that despite declining crop prospects that powered yesterday's surge, they still expect record exports in the coming year. After the close, we got the planting progress report and corn came in at 70%, 2 points better than expected and only a point shy of average for this point in the season instead of falling further behind. It shows 40% emerged, six points below last year but actually a point better than average. Among major producing states, Iowa and Illinois are the only ones still noticeably behind. At 78%, Iowa is normally 86% finished by now. At 67%, Illinois lags its normal pace by 4 points. Soybean planting came in at 52% complete, three points better than expected also 3 points ahead of average. It shows 26% have already emerged, 5 points behind last year but 5 points ahead of average. The only states noticeably lagging the normal pace are these: Iowa at 61% is normally 67%, Michigan at 42%…
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05/20/2024 Grains Start the Week Stronger With Wheat the Surprising Leader

By The Commstock Report
NEW WHEAT RECCO DAY 3: On prior advice all should be sold out of old crop and 15% hedged on new crop. On Thursday, we advised hedging another 20% to take you to 35% hedged. We advised using the September contracts at your appropriate exchanges as these are at premiums to the July contracts and won't require any need to roll if July delivery approaches and we want to stay hedged. On the Grains Grain markets are higher in overnight trade with all three classes of wheat leading with double digit gains as of 6am. The sharp rebound for wheat is a bit surprising given last week's higher-than-expected Kansas Wheat Tour results and near torrential rains over most of the state through the weekend. It could stem from growing uncertainty over wheat prospects for Russia. USDA's first estimate had them at 88 MMT, down from 91.5 last year. With recent freezes and drought problems, our Ukrainian Grain Broker contact Viktor Korobko already had them at 85 MMT and in his weekend report lowered it further to possibly below 80 million. As for Ukraine, USDA put their '24 wheat output at 21 MMT, down from 23 last year. Korobko says it's likely…
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05/17/2024 Two Crops Make One This year

By The Commstock Report
NEW WHEAT RECCO DAY 2: On prior advice all should be sold out of old crop and 15% hedged on new crop. Yesterday we advised hedging another 20% to take you to 35% hedged. We advised using the September contracts at your appropriate exchanges as these are at premiums to the July contracts and won't require any need to roll if July delivery approaches and we want to stay hedged. On the Grains When spring began early starting in February this year and fieldwork progressed in March, one would have thought that we would not be fighting to get crops in as we are yet in mid-May. We have gone from drought last fall to waterlogged this spring. We have gotten half of our crop here planted in April and are still waiting on the opportunity to plant the second half. We hear of isolated instances where farmers have planted nothing yet. Random planting progress is being made wherever conditions allow. Assuming that we get the second half of our crops planted soon, we will essentially have two very different crops given the time lapse between them. Pollination will get spread out during the summer. We have not had good drying…
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05/16/2024 Day 2 Results of Kansas Wheat Tour Dominate Overnight News

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Beans are soft but corn and wheat are firm in overnight trade. Wheat is bouncing back some after yesterday’s negative technical action. The weather outlook hasn’t changed a lot for planting progress. There’s a break at hand putting planters back into the fields in most of the Corn Belt but rains return Sunday that are likely to put the eastern Corn Belt even further behind when we see the next progress report after Monday’s close. Weekly ethanol production was above expectations and a 5 week high, keeping us on track to meet or beat USDA’s current corn for ethanol forecast.   The much lower than expected April crush data weighed on the soybean complex yesterday, ending a 7 month string of taking out prior records. While it cooled ideas that USDA’s current crush forecast might be too low, there’s enough lead built up that it’s not seriously threatened.   This content is for members only.Log In Register
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05/15/2024 Markets Firm Overnight As Tuesday Setback News Fully Dialed In

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Markets are firm in overnight trade and that includes wheat despite much-improved yields on Day 1 of the Kansas wheat tour discussed below. Even beans are bouncing back despite pressure yesterday from two factors: 1) No higher levies on used cooking oil (UCO) from China to claim biofuels credit despite charges they’re spiking it with vegetable oils and 2) a surprise increase in CONAB’s Brazilian soy crop due to a surprise boost in their acreage estimate. This content is for members only.Log In Register
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05/14/24 Books Needed in order to be Well-Read

By The Commstock Report
Last year I shared some recommended reading with subscribers. The response was positive. One subscriber told me that he did not like to read books but took the advice to buy "With the Old Breed" and said that his wife read it to him. Sounds like a candidate for the audio version. He agreed that it was the most accurate word-smithed description of combat that he had ever been exposed to and thanked me for the heads up. If you like this kind of book, I would suggest "Ghosts of Honolulu" by Mark Harmon. Yeah, that Mark Harmon. The subject is a true story about a Japanese Spy, Japanese American spy hunter and an untold story of Pearl Harbor. I think myself to be a pretty good student of history but what you learn is that history is too immense to know much of it. This has added an interesting saga.   First off, I read non-fiction. Have you ever been reading a book and the author seems to be getting it right…but then the subject matter changes to something that you specifically know about, may even be an expert on, and the author doesn't know what he is talking…
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05/14/2024 Planting Progress Slows Further As Weather Risks Grow

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grain prices are mixed in overnight trade. Russian wheat suffered another round of freezing temperatures over the weekend and quality issues are a growing worry in Europe. But today’s early trade will mostly be factoring in the planting progress reports and latest condition ratings for wheat. The KS wheat tour gets underway today and reports from that will be closely watched all week.   After the close, we got the planting progress report and corn came in at 49%. That was about what was expected but now 5 points behind normal and 11 points slower than last year that was at 60% by now. The eastern states are most responsible for the slippage from normal. Missouri leads the Corn Belt at 72% while Indiana leads the laggard states at only 20% planted. This content is for members only.Log In Register
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05/13/2024 Planting Weather Looks Iffy and Likely to Fall Further Behind

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are weaker in overnight trade thus far, giving back some of Friday’s strong gains but still looking positive from a chart perspective. Trader reaction to Friday’s WASDE netted solid gains for corn and wheat but only modest gains for beans on the coattails. That stems mostly from USDA once again coming in with only a “token” reduction of 1 million tonnes for Brazil’s soybean crop to 154 MMT against an average trade estimate of 152.5 and private estimates down there still closer to 147. Tomorrow we’ll get the latest CONAB report (their USDA equivalent) and, if anything, that’s expected to be even lower due to disastrous flooding in southern Brazil.   This content is for members only.Log In Register
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