Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Perhaps all the screaming and kicking on the race to 185/190 national yield was 85/premature, as several areas are now reporting Tassel Whip. What is unknown is the root cause, whether it is hybrid-specific or caused by stress, I am unsure. What we do know is that poor pollination can lead to significant yield losses and is currently affecting corn in several states. With extremely hot temperatures coming next week in a bunch of the corn belt, that 190 bpa is likely out the window (never was in my window). Yield losses are estimated to be 15-40%, and so far, it appears that the losses are most pronounced in corn planted between April 14 and 17, which has already experienced heat stress. Now, we throw on some good ol Tar Spot, which is on the move again. Lucky for me, my county is shaded and already confirmed in the southern part of the county. While I love growing corn, it seems like there are more and more issues each year.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Ethanol production came in at 1.087 MBPD, nearly flat vs last week, down 1.7% year-over-year vs the same week last year. The 4-week average continues to be up 1.5% but still well below the 4.5-5% increase needed to meet the USDA’s 5.5 billion bushel target. The implied needed pace of 1.133 million barrels per day (mbpd) through the end of August will likely fall short, potentially putting 25-30 million bushels back into the carryover. Current ethanol stocks decreased by 320,000 barrels to 23.635 million barrels, a slight decrease over expectations. Although stocks are 2.1% above last year’s levels, they remain historically tight. Not helping ethanol production is the drop in gasoline demand, reported at 8.489 million barrels per day (a 6-week low). The year-over-year comparison is down 3.3%, with the 4-week average down 1.6% from last year. Ethanol exports fell to a 7-week low of just 94,000 barrels per day, yet the 4-week average remains modestly above the previous year’s level (114,000 bpd vs. 107,000 bpd). Bottom line, expect the USDA to decrease usage by 20-30 million bushels in either August or September. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains NOPA crush numbers, while positive, failed to inspire the soybean yesterday, despite being reported up 6.1% from last year at 2.042 billion bushels. June numbers were reported at 185.7 MBU, slightly above trade estimates of 185.2 MBU. The balance of the year, which is often what traders watch, stands at 378 million bushels, representing a 4.8% increase needed compared to the same period last year. If July-August matches the April-June increase of 7.3% increase we should be on pace for a 2.44 billion crush, which is 20 million bushels over USDA’s projections. No notable production slowdowns are expected. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! This is the letter that was sent to Japan informing them that they will pay a 25% tariff as a cover fee on exports to the US. South Korea got one virtually identical. Both have until August 9th to surrender to terms under negotiation, or this tariff becomes the new trade deal for them to do business here. It would be interesting to know what they have to choke down to get a reduced tariff. It would be things like paying us more for their national defense. Dear Mr. Prime Minister, It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Japan, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward with you, but only with more balanced, and fair, TRADE. Therefore, we invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World, by far. We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Japan and have concluded that we…

On the Grains Growing up on the Mississippi River, after buying my first boat (thanks to being long the oats market that year, I believe it was 2011), I learned quickly to stay in the channel if you don’t know where the wing dams are. Much like marketing, until the unknown is known, it’s best to stay within the channels. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains When looking at the grain markets, the windshield can get you in big trouble. I have probably put 2,000 miles on over the last 10 days and will admit that the corn in SE MN and NE Iowa looks as good as it ever has. I used to work with an agronomist who always had a theory that you should never listen to an agronomist who didn’t have a shovel in his truck or mud on his boots. These days, it’s easy to drive by and say it looks great, yet I have neither a shovel nor mud in my truck from travels. Which is not to say that I didn’t walk a bit in my fields, they look pretty good, yet the stand was a little less than I’d hoped for when we planted in such ideal conditions. The new age windshield is now AI-generated maps that show how great the crop is, and I would assume that as the years go on, they will become more accurate. Yet, there is no mud on the satellites. That is the very issue that presented itself last year during harvest, as the crop continued to shrink till the…

On the Grains CONAB raised its crop production estimates to 132 MMT, up from the previous report of 128.3 MMT, driven by stronger Safrinha yields. USDA currently has Brazil at 130 while private forecasters have issued numbers as high as 134-140. On soybeans, CONAB maintained its soybean estimate of 169.5 MTM, a 14.7% increase over last year’s crop. The USDA is still at 169 MMT, only 9.4% higher than the previous year’s USDA Brazil yield of 154.5 MMT. We have received numerous phone calls, particularly last year, regarding the anticipated collaboration between the USDA and CONAB on total production. They have kicked it down the line to this year to match CONAB, so in essence, the USDA is saying the crop is smaller this year than what CONAB is saying, as those stocks from last year need to be accounted for. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains While CONAB will undoubtedly release its updates today, which will be closely watched by the market, the biggest story is the Mexican border being closed again due to the New World screwworm advancing north as far as Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, which is 160 miles north of where the sterile flies have been released. The most important part of this is to keep them out of the US. Look for cattle futures to react sharply on the open. I know this is not the cattle section, but it is the biggest Ag story of the day and will affect feed demand. 24/25 feed demand has been the anchor to the positive export news that we have had all year. The USDA will release the WASDE report tomorrow. Typically, in a year when ending stocks are this tight, at 1.365 billion bushels, we would have seen some summer rally. However, the funds have managed to keep a lid on this market, offering only limited sales of old crop corn at $5.00 (which was months ago). So, what is the cause? First, we cast a negative light on this corn market with the announcement of tariffs last March. All…

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Corn Continues Lower You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains It feels like anybody on the long side of this market is just waiting for ICE to come and deport you. CBOT took out the December low that we forged last week, now eyeing up the gap on the continuation chart at $3.94. All that comes to mind is, “Go ahead, make my day.” We have discussed the topic of exports, usage, and crop conditions in depth. Yet, we still have the July/Sep corn spread trading at a 15-cent inverse, indicating that there is still demand on the IWDS. Flash sales of 144,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines were reported yesterday, with 97,000 MT allocated for 24/25 and 47,000 MT for 25/26. This was followed by the sale of 112,776 MT of corn for 25/26 to Mexico. Now, returning to the old crop corn, we have been shipping a substantial amount of corn. However, with IMEA in Mato Grosso raising its yield forecast by 3.6 MMT to 54 MMT (47 MMT last year) and the southern harvest less…

On the Grains When we consider structural support, it relies on the I-beam that carries the load, much like the corn market dominated by the I-states that produce most of the crop ~38% of total production. Last night’s crop conditions report showed Iowa and Indiana up 1%, while Illinois was down 3%. The CBOT was quick to shed the premiums it added last week, as traders have grown tired of the same two stories: export demand and lack of trade deals. Crop conditions released yesterday at 3 pm had corn at 74% G/E, the highest in 7 years. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here