Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Two of the greatest sporting events were on TV last night, the Green Bay Packers and the start of the National Finals Rodeo. Unfortunately, the Packers did not pull it off, but all is not lost, it is Friday after all.   Yesterday’s Export weekly sales of corn were 68.2 million bushels (mbu) well above last week’s 41.8 mbu and the previous year’s same week of 50.7 mbu. Total commitment of 1.34 billion bushels are up 33% year-over-year while USDA has this year’s sales projected at 1.4% increase. The balance of year (BOY) needs to average 22.5 mbu/wk which would be down from LY 33.3 mbu. The bottom line is that corn exports are on fire, we won’t know until January 20th if this is front-loading or if we have seen price drive additional demand to the U.S. I foresee the USDA slow playing the balance sheet next week, we will see somewhat of an increase, but I wouldn’t expect a huge jump until more is known. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Welcome to the Thursday edition of the markets that chop around. Yesterday’s news was limited as no flash sales were reported on corn or soybeans. We did have the weekly EIA report out showing ethanol production slightly lower, this is not a concern as that is common for the week after Thanksgiving. Currently, the EIA numbers have ethanol production at 7.9% above the 4-week average and looking forward we only need to average .8% below where our current grind pace is to meet the USDA’s 5.4-billion-bushel grind. I would be surprised if we did not see an upward revision in the grind and exports next week in the December 10th Crop Production report. The overhanging question remains, are these sales just front loading or are we going to keep pace all year? We should have some the average trade guesses out tomorrow for Tuesdays report. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Good morning, after some technical difficulties, we’re up and running since we are on a schedule, I will keep it brief this morning. Yesterday, corn attempted to follow crude higher as the OPEC meeting that is scheduled for later in the week will establish production guidelines for 2025. Most traders expect OPEC to delay production increases as they fear flooding the market and what the newly elected President Trump will do on the domestic front. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Good morning and welcome to our regularly scheduled programming of, “The Grain Markets Chopping Around.” March corn is still trying to pick a direction lacking conviction to move on either side of the 50-day moving average (DMA) and the 38.2% retracement. Last night the Commitment of Traders (COT) had the funds as net sellers of 17,186 contracts putting the total long at 97,442. Some strength in the crude oil and wheat markets is providing support today, we will see if that lasts all day. While we are in a range that is seemingly impossible to break out of, we will at some point, in which direction? time will tell.   While I am behind on my 2025 marketing, as I am reluctant to do much with prices at or below breakeven, I did do a small sale yesterday and sold a call on top of it, the idea is that I can wrangle something close to $4.25 next fall isn’t attractive, but it is something to start with. While corn seems less likely to crash, with all the input dollars on the table it felt like I needed to be responsible and do something. A while ago I wrote about…

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Corn Basis versus CBOT. Since March corn tested its Oct high and corrected the corn basis where we live has since lost 20 cents bushel, now 10 cents over. Commercials pushed bids past harvest until they got their inventory, they needed to cover cash needs to get them into the new year. Farmers tend to shut the bin door post-harvest and not open it again until the next calendar year. That gets them into the next tax year but taxes may not be an issue given short net income. Most like to take the holidays off so commercial grain activity slows during December. On the export side, many foreign buyers, concerned over 2025 trade uncertainty, made US purchases to get transactions on the books to get ahead of threatened tariffs and other risks. That flurry of domestic and export trade has likely been consummated in the cash market as shown in the weakening basis. The dollar shot up during Oct-Nov so that a currency premium to be paid for US grain/soy was created for export purchases. Dollar strength put a lid on the CBOT price recovery from the August…

On the Grains Last night on the TV series Yellowstone, Kayce got his “Counting Coup” on the man who arranged and killed his father, I didn’t know what this meant on a deeper level, so I hit the old Google and found that it was the Plains Indian warrior tradition to show intimidation towards an enemy without killing them. If that doesn’t describe the soybean market of the last 6 months, I don’t know what else does, it has been intimidating and makes me wonder who will attempt to grow beans next year. Sure, beans will be planted next spring but after last year’s disappointing yield and revenue, it will be difficult for me to get excited about them. With the corn/bean ratio at 2.34 and plenty of fieldwork completed this fall, we could be setting ourselves up for a bang-up corn planting intention number. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Hope that you all had a Great Thanksgiving! “They were eating the turkeys where we live”! We received a positive response to our recent special report…”The Wall Cloud”.  It was published over 3 days so we decided to compile it into one report and send it in its entirety today.  Have a pleasant weekend. Part 1 Originally Published 11/18/2024 I can remember standing in the doorway to our home that leads to the basement looking to the west and seeing what was in the preceding picture approaching… A Wall Cloud. There was a different smell in the air and rumble in the distance so that all of your senses were playing into what was happening. The wind went briefly still, literally becoming the calm before the storm. It could make the hair on your neck stand on end. It gave you a sense of raw power and that it was irresistible. You hoped that it would provide needed rain but there was also the possibility that wind and hail would bring it. You knew that things would look different after the storm passed than they did before and there was some angst mixed in the emotion of what could come…

On the Grains Good morning and happy Thanksgiving to you all. I made it from just before Labor Day to Thanksgiving as the morning Commstock report author and thank all of you for following along on the journey. My hope was that I kept you informed and if nothing else entertained along the way. One thing is for sure, no turkey dinners in the combines this year. Heck there wasn’t hardly any Halloween candy in the combines as harvest was pretty much over by the end of October. For the record, as a cattle feeder, it doesn’t hurt my feelings if we don’t have turkey at all because we all know, “Beef is what’s for dinner.” So go ahead and enjoy that beef. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! DJTs rejection of globalization and free trade policy, soon will be replaced by an “America First” trade and foreign policy, is not a threat or a negotiation ploy. It is real and about to be implemented in 2025. The world relationship as we have come to know it, post WWII, is about to undergo a material change. The opportunity that the US has given geopolitical allies to ride on our coattails as equal partners is over. The opportunity for allies to roll forward in the US orbit and be protected by the US policing the world order is over. This relationship was not one-sided as the US received great benefits as well. The US is the center of the world economy and without access to our markets or our security pledge to include trade partners under our umbrella of protection, it is about to undergo changes that will reorder the world trade-wise. It will geopolitically fragment into smaller zones of influence and self-interest. DJT is going to create an America First and foremost entity and will sell the benefits of the American alliance going forward to former and new…

On the Grains Good Tuesday morning, overnight we had the Trump tariff announcements and shockingly they look an awful lot like Trump 1.0 with an additional 10% placed on China Day 1. While China maintains that nobody will win a trade war, it looks like one is coming. It could take the number 2 economy down hard, as some are projecting a 1% slip in China’s GDP. Now on to the markets, what is surprising to me is that we had these announcements yesterday around 6 pm and the grain markets haven’t reacted negatively at all, obviously a bunch of tariffs were already priced in. Speaking of priced-in, flash export sales to Mexico of 364,791 MT for 24/25 and 89,298 MT of corn failed to produce any reaction. We continue to believe that it is frontend loading by Mexico here is a visual chart of where we are at marketing year to date.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here