Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Finally, Friday. What a week it’s been for row crop futures, as it has been a mentally exhausting market to trade. Now, we can look forward to a break this weekend. President Trump continues to hold firm on his EU tariff talks, which most ag markets didn’t appreciate. Only time will tell what develops over the weekend. Fundamentally, corn still has an underlying story for the old crop, with export sales and shipments well ahead of last year’s pace. This week, the USDA reported sales of 38.1 MBU, while slightly off the previous two weeks’ pace, it still leaves us 25% ahead of the 23/24 crop. I get the USDA slow-playing it with all the tariff news, yet I just don’t see how we don’t adjust that number higher. CONAB came out with an increase in Brazilian corn, raising yields from 122 to 122.8 MMT, which is still 3.2 MMT behind the USDA’s estimates. The point here is that they can have some great weather and still not exceed what the USDA has on the balance sheet.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! I asked AI; “How much can a turtle see with its head pulled into its shell?” I do not know what pronoun to use when referring to AI but I got this answer;“When a turtle retracts its head into its shell, its field of vision is significantly reduced, but not completely obstructed, as the eyes are still able to move and compensate for the obstructed view. Here's a more detailed explanation: Reduced Peripheral Vision: Pulling the head into the shell blocks the turtle's peripheral vision, which is typical of many lower vertebrates. Eye Muscle Adaptation: Some turtles have developed a way to compensate for this obstructed view by using their eye muscles differently, allowing them to view the world both laterally and forward. Superior Oblique Muscle: A nerve that moves one of the pond turtle's eye muscles, the superior oblique muscle, is active when the turtle moves its head from side to side, suggesting a role in compensating for the obstructed view.” I took that to mean that we can see quite a little without our necks being stuck out. Here is more of my turtle view: DOGE is a necessary evil that will produce pain.…

On the Grains Grains bulls are starving for helpful news after the mild rebound attempt. Tariffs are here to stay as a day-by-day, hour-by-hour influence, whether they are announced or withdrawn or delayed or extended or exempted or whatever else is changing for tariffs against different products and different countries. Tariffs are linked to the sharp break in the stock market that has signaled concern about the economy and recession. Goldman Sachs reportedly downgraded their U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.4 to 1.7 percent on the assumption of an average tariff rate increase of 10 percent across the board. The major stock indexes are in the headlines for quickly falling into ‘correction’ territory by the definition of being down more than 10 percent from their highs. A flip into ‘bear market’ status is considered to follow a 20 percent drop. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grain Good morning. Even the DOW and crude oil are finding some footing, but it isn’t helping row crops this morning. Yesterday’s report turned into a big nothing sandwich, which is what I figured, yet it still managed to disappoint. USDA chose to kick the can down the road, as they often do, until a later report, I guess they are nervous about tariffs too. The only small changes were the reduction imports by 2 MMT of corn to China, 2 MMT reduction in Brazil exports, and 1 MMT in South American production. This left us with world-ending stocks at 288.9 MMT, the lowest in 10 years, proving it’s all about the weather from here on out. The Safrinha crop is reported at 92% planted, up 12% from last week.         This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Welcome to the first of the two significant reports for March. While the trade isn’t looking for drastic changes, there is always a certain amount of anxiety ahead of these reports. The overnight markets have fared well, and DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P are all rebounding- possibly overdoing it yesterday. Today’s report will consider current trade policies as part of the global forecast, more on that later. For the month of February, Brazil exported 6.43 MMT of soybeans vs last year’s 6.61 MMT, corn totals came in at 1.43 MMT vs. last year’s 1.71 MMT. The reduced corn number is not much of a surprise as stocks to use are extremely tight in Brazil now on corn, and the US is the only game in town, as noted by a flash sale yesterday of 126,000 MT of corn to Japan. Premiums have risen sharply for South American and Ukrainian corn. Several analysts have Brazil in need of importing corn to bridge the gap until the safrinha corn crop is available in late June. With the Mato Grosso, basically, planted, it’s all about the rain. While we don’t expect much for adjustments in today’s report, that could be the…

On the Grains Ethanol received some difficult news at the end of last week. First, the Governor of South Dakota, Larry Rhoden, signed the bill banning eminent domain use for the carbon pipeline. I sit on both sides of the fence on this one, as a corn farmer and a landowner. I strongly support the idea that the public would benefit from a pipeline. I also do not tell somebody else how to manage their land. The sins of past pipeline projects are coming back to haunt this project. I am not implying that Summit Carbon was guilty of these sins, as most of them were in the late 1990s and early 2000s, where they said they would go 4 feet deep in Northeast Iowa, and a fair chunk ended up being 18-24 inches, ruining tile along the way. Ethanol has made multimillionaires out of just about anybody who owned ground and single-handedly saved countless rural towns by providing high-paying jobs, let alone the property taxes to local schools. As a resident of Minnesota getting Twin Cities ideals crammed down my throat, I can appreciate the autonomy of South Dakota yet feel like we may be hitching our horse to…

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Can Corn Reach Any Higher? You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Can Corn Reach Any Higher? You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good morning. What we know and what we don’t know. Yesterday’s news of President Trump coming to terms with Mexico and kicking the tariff can down the road instantly rebounded the market for corn, soybeans, and hogs higher. I believe this is the theme of this administration and expect it to remain this way for some time. The question is, how do we market in this current environment? Next week, the WASDE and the Prospected Plantings report at the end of the month will set the tone for summer, as always. One could make the case for slight adjustments on the corn balance sheet with exports running 26% above last year, but this will likely be pushed down the line, especially given the current tariff-on and tariff-off talks.The weather will move into focus. It’s dry, but that can be…

On the Grains I am back in the saddle this morning after a fantastic trip to Commodity Classic. Thank you to all who stopped by the booth to say hello. This was my third Commodity Classic, and each year brings a different tone from producers. This year’s was surprising, most farmers said they would not change acres and chase the market. So, did we buy 94 million acres like the USDA forum said? Did they not want to acknowledge that they were chasing corn, or were they on the fence yet? I would guess a mixture of both. While the $4.70 crop insurance price looks head and shoulders better than the $10.54 soybean guarantee, the margin at $4.70 isn’t wildly higher than last year. There will be trader positioning heading into the end of the month planting intentions. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains On Tuesday, the middle of the country had blizzard warnings, winter storm warnings, and high wind warnings, while the South had tornado, thunderstorm, flood, and red flag warnings in place. There were many areas where the moisture was more than welcomed, but dark skies added to the ominous feelings stirred up by the market selloff. The situation was looking panicky as the Dow Jones was down around 800 points mid-morning. It was no doubt helpful that stocks trimmed their losses considerably starting at around 10:30 am, which allowed May corn futures to finish 9 cents off their low and soybeans 8 cents better than their low. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Out of Time Part 3 of many A Fox News princess claimed that president Trump was playing 4-dimentional chess while others were playing checkers. I do not know that I would take it that far but I get her point. There is the main thrust of the administration headed by Elon Musk and DOGE that is forging ahead attempting to get in front of what is a budget crisis. And then there are many subsidiary battles going on advancing his larger agenda. It is hard to tell sometimes which is the main attack and which is the diversion in the others. Much of it is intertwined. For example, Trumps trade, immigration and tax policies all run either parallel or are integrated into the budget emergency.   The US has a near $2 trillion shortfall between revenue and spending. Some of that was the result of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Technically he is responsible for a share of the fiscal mess. I don’t think that anyone wants to let the tax cuts in place sunset as they are scheduled to do. I think doing so would mean immediate recession. They are now baked in. “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated…