Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Good Friday morning subscribers. By the time this hits your inbox I will be past TSA security, on my way to boarding, and enjoying a coffee or cocktail, the jury is still out on that one. Speaking of flights, I realized that I need to do better. When going to the gas pump I look at the price, almost always pick E-88. Why do I do that, because it’s cheaper and gets me to where I’m heading. Not to mention, I am a (small) grain farmer, commodity broker, and enjoy hunting in the outdoors (clean air) – all thing that ethanol helps with.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Well, the Fed did it yesterday, a 50 basis point cut was announced and sent the precious metals on a sharp trajectory lower, although recovering nicely in the overnight. The announcement at 1 pm didn’t allow much reaction time for the livestock or the grains but we did have the overnight session on grains which was wildly uneventful. While this rate cut was to due to inflation cooling off, the numbers many say it’s cooling off, I look at my own budget and struggle to see just what’s cooling off, but the experts tell me it is, so it must be true. The way it looks now interest might be the only line item in my farm projections for next year that is cheaper, possibly fuel but time will tell on that. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Here we go, finally the Fed decision day. I can’t say that I’m sad that the day is finally here, lighten up on some interest and we don’t have to talk about it anymore. Overnight the equity markets were very quiet, with the S&P slightly higher up +6.75 at 5645.75. If you are wondering how nervous the market is just take a look at the daily chart from yesterday, gaps all over the place on the S&P chart.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Welcome to another week of exciting futures action brought to you by the CBOT. Here we go, soybean harvest has kicked off in Northeast Iowa as a client of mine called Friday doing his first field of beans. Those beans on lighter ground planted April 18th were running 55 bpa, he was pleased with the yields considering the lack of rain in July and August. That farm has done as high as 70 bpa in good years and very well could have been 70 bpa this year with any amount of rain in August. While I think it’s too early to call a trend, I think about the NFL and undisputed and conclusive evidence, to overturn a call, that’s what it feels like when I think about the USDA numbers going forward. It’s just going to be so spotty that any quantifiable change will be left for the January report or even later in the stocks numbers well into 2025. 2019 continues to come to mind when we played kick the can all the way to the stocks report in August of 2020 when all the 2019 crop was gone, half the 2020 production priced, and USDA adjusted…

Price action following the September crop report showed bearish speculators using the initial corn yield reaction to cover short positions rather than rebuild them. Buying enthusiasm will test the staying power of old longs in the futures market and the resistance from old-crop grain still moving into the cash market ahead of the even bigger wave of new-crop selling interest on the way. This is not the first time we have produced big crops nationally despite facing numerous weather challenges regionally, nor is it the first time that bearish USDA leanings have conspired with the trading funds to lean on the grain futures market. It must be said that every year is different, but there are several things going on right now that we have already experienced to some degree before. The characteristics of the present are currently stacking up with notable similarities to 2020, which was the last election year with President Trump running and when similar issues included Chinese tariffs, immigration and border security problems, challenges for U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade relations, and ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The last year that interest rates started moving lower was also 2020, when grain prices made their most recent major lows…

On the Grains While we summarized the USDA crop report last night, grains are trading higher this morning following wheat and crude oil. Metals are sharply higher on a softer U.S. Dollar with a risk-on attitude before next weeks fed meeting. Most likely we will see that 25 basis-point rate cut but there is still an outside chance that we see the 50 basis-point cut. Several economist are projecting gold at $3,000 oz. and silver at $37 next year if the feds continue to stay on pace for the 200 basis point rate cut by next May. Any reprieve will be welcomed on the operating notes, especially for cattle producers. The producer price index (PPI) rose .2% in August vs .1% estimates. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

USDA methodology changes with subsequent USDA production reports from beginning early in the season with producer surveys to where they put some boots on the ground up until they have plots harvested to have real data. There will be harvest data in the October report with most plots harvested by the November report. USDA left their corn/soybean harvested acreage estimates unchanged this month. They will likely tweak acreage in the October report. Pockets of drought and flooded potholes dispersed around the extremes of the corn-belt should result in a reduction in harvested acres in each of corn and soybeans.   The focus of the September report was on projected yields. USDA added .5 bpa to last month’s 183.1 bpa. That gets us to a 183.6 bpa record yield. That was the top end of trade estimates.  That increases their corn production estimate by 39 mln bushel to 15.186 bln. That increase in supply however was offset by a 55 mln bushel reduction in carry in stocks to the balance sheet. They revised 2023-24 ethanol use and exports higher. They left all of their 2024-25 demand projections unchanged so slightly higher 2024 production was erased by larger demand last year. The…

On the Grains Good morning and welcome to the show. Several key reports out today starting with the Export Sales report and PPI both released at 7:30 a.m. Shortly after that we have the much anticipated September USDA report. Yield trade range is from 180.5 to 184 bpa, if the report comes in outside of those numbers, expect some movement. Adjustments to the 23/24 exports and an increase in the ethanol grind are all reducing stocks from last year. Moving on to 24/25, export sales are running 8% better than a year ago, EIA report from yesterday had ethanol production rising to 1.081 million barrels per day as ethanol production continues to run almost 4% better than last year. Also, keep an eye on what they print for Ukraine production as its likely they drop that by 2MMT, down to 25 MMT, and possibly adjust the Argentine’s production numbers. The Rosario Exchanges has the crop at 46.5MMT that is a whopping 4.5MMT lower than the USDA. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains: Row crops are finally finding some footing on the overnight markets trading 2-3 better on corn and 9 higher on beans, helped along by energies after yesterday’s disastrous crude oil trade. Concern for hurricane Francine as it makes it way to landfall and the overall U.S. lower oil stocks have stabilized that this morning. Today’s EIA report will also give us a current picture of what inventories look like. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Fall Feeder Cattle, with the market within $3 of recent lows look to cover immediate purchasing needs at current prices.   As of the time of writing this, 3:30 am, Corn has backed up 1-2 and soybeans are off 11 ½, as to where we’re on the markets when this hits the inboxes is anybody’s guess as both corn and soybeans are sitting right at the overnight lows (I’m not going back to rewrite the report later in the morning so a timestamp saves the hate mail if it changes). It will be vital to hold last week’s low at 1001 ¾ and 403 ¼. Coincidentally, the 23 exponential day moving average also rest there on corn and slightly higher on beans. That moving average can be were algorithmic trading gets fired up (1004 and 403 are the numbers to watch).  Personally, I’m questioning my conviction on whether they hold.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here