CommStock Reports

Happy Mother's Day. A mostly steady open is expected for the grains as more active planting progress over the weekend is weighed against technical bullishness following from a strong close on Friday. In the Headlines Corn futures finished higher for a third week in a row with the July contract up 9 1/2 cents over the last five sessions. July beans managed to hold onto gains of 4 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat futures rallied 41 cents last week and KC July was up 23. June live cattle finished last week lower by 52 cents while May feeders dropped $4.50. June lean hogs were down 57 cents. The largest solar storm in more than 20 years occurred over the weekend. The geomagnetic flaring provided a widespread display of the Northern Lights while it also disrupted satellites, some of which farmers were trying to rely on for GPS guidance while planting. The government's Space Weather Prediction Center noted that "the source has mostly been a large, complex sunspot cluster that is 17 times the diameter of the Earth." The initial new-crop estimates were reported on Friday and now the market will reflect changes in opinions about acreage, yields, and demand. The planted acreage debate draws in the influence of weather relative to the March survey findings that predicted 90 million acres of corn and 86.5 million acres of soybeans. Traders will assess where we are at on yield potential relative to the "weather-adjusted trend" estimates of 181 bushels per acre ...

The crop report released today was widely anticipated for its inclusion of initial U.S. new-crop estimates as well as for its updated look at the South American production numbers. The outcome was decidedly more bullish for corn and wheat than it was for soybeans. For corn, the 2025 U.S. ending stocks estimate came in well below the average trade guess while the production estimates for Brazil also fell further than most had anticipated. It was the opposite for soybeans, with U.S. carryout rising by more than expected while numbers for South America were not lowered by as much as was thought to be necessary.   There were not many major surprises to come out of the U.S. supply and demand estimates. Sticking with convention, the USDA started by plugging in the trend yield estimates already published in February along with the acreage estimates from the March Prospective Plantings survey. Relative to the February Outlook Forum Estimates, the USDA turned a bit more optimistic about both corn exports and ethanol usage. What helped pad the soybean ending stocks for next year was that the government analysts were down 50 million bushels of soybean exports compared to what they previously predicted, which more than offset a soybean crush estimate that was 25 million bushels better than it was in February.   It should not have come as a surprise that the USDA stayed stubborn on moving the Brazilian production estimates lower. The Brazilian bean crop was left unchanged for last year and cut by only 1 ...

On the Grains Grains are all higher in overnight trade with wheat leading the gains. That freeze on already drought stressed wheat in Russia has caused three of its key wheat districts to declare a "state of emergency" and that's led to more short covering by funds. In supportive news for corn, the Rosario Grain exchange just reduced its estimate for Argentina's crop another 2 million tonnes, to 47.5 million versus USDA's April WASDE at 55 MMT. The trade may also already be responding to yesterday's confirmation from NOAA that we'll likely see an earlier shift to La Nina conditions known for bringing hotter and drier summers to the central part of the country.

2024 started out the year with high expectations for interest rate cuts with some forecasting as many as 7 rate cuts this calendar year. There was absolutely no precedent for such a thing and they were goofy if thinking that the inflation dragon had been slain. More likely is 1 or 2 rate cuts…only 1 pre-election. The Fed tightening did trim the rate of inflation significantly but it remains near 3.5% and appears to linger stubbornly above the Fed target of 2%. While the Fed has engaged in deflationary monetary policy, fiscal policy the world over remains inflationary to counter it. Western economies are ramping up spending to build arsenals that they once thought was unnecessary before Putin's aggression. Supply chains are not going back to pre-covid structures as the US in particular re-shores a significant portion of its manufacturing capacity that it previously off-shored during globalization. The Biden administration has also engaged in infrastructure spending that feeds new demand for raw materials and labor into the economy. With all of this happening, getting back down to 2% inflation anytime soon is unlikely without a significant slowdown/hard landing. Fed patience will be required. As both consumers and businesses are likely to "pull back" into the election season they are likely to get the slowdown in the economy anticipated for cover to lower rates.   The election outcome will likely have a significant impact on inflation. If Trump wins… his tariff, immigration and tax policies are all inflationary. Placing tariffs on all US ...

On the Grains Grains are higher in overnight trading with wheat up double digits after two days of losses. Weather forecasts are becoming scrambled as to impact on planting pace through the weekend and into next week. Some parts of the Midwest are expected to dry out enough for planting to resume, while intermittent showers will return to others just about the time planters might have resumed. Most importantly, this week and next week are the two where planting typically makes its biggest gains and Monday's planting progress report is likely to show corn planting has fallen even further behind normal, which should prove supportive.

Farmers have been anxiously awaiting some sort of market rally of substance since last harvest, only to be disappointed time and time again.  It is typical for those who are optimistic to want to point to the next seasonal, but so far none seem to be working.  Harvest lows, January contract expiration, March acreage reports have done nothing to persuade managed money from exiting their short positions.    We may have to temper our expectations this season as to what a rally is, but we continue to remain stubbornly optimistic waiting for any type of rally that would produce a profit.  My local bid is currently offering $4.50 cash corn for new crop.  Even with a decent yield, I am breaking even.  While I might not have the lowest cost of production, I doubt it is that different for most others.  Some may even be in a worse situation.   I have a hard time wanting to lock in a break-even price.  But I also have to keep in mind that the market does not care what my break-even price is.  We have identified profitable targets to begin making new crop corn sales but we need the corn market to break out of its sideways lull.  It has been trading in a twenty cent range for over 2 months now.  Spring or summer rallies are not the most reliable but they have been known to provide enough of a boost that if they were to happen again, we need to be ready to ...

On the Grains Grains were narrowly mixed but leaning weak as of 6 am in overnight trade. The trade is absorbing trade estimates now out for all the key metrics in Friday's May WASDE report. It will feature both tweaks to the 2023-24 balance sheets and the first "official" USDA projections for the 2024-25 season. So far, all the trade has had to go on were the preliminary "guesstimates" from the USDA Outlook Forum in February, before USDA even had the March Prospective Plantings to go on. Looking at the wide ranges of estimates, there are extremes either bulls or bears can focus on that set up potential for significant market reaction if USDA numbers come out near either end of those ranges!

It ain't over 'til it's over.  The market had already begun moving on from Brazil's soybean harvest as it was nearly 95% complete.  Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest state for soybean production, was the last major area to wrap up harvest.  RGDS was about to have one of their best seasons in a long time.  With roughly 25% of the state remaining to be harvested, massive rains have begun causing apocalyptic type damage to cities and farms, with a reported death toll at 80 people and rising.  We see images of what appears to be lakes where an unharvested soybean field sat ready to be cut just days earlier.  Grain storage facilities are also submerged underwater.  As many as ten meatpacking plants have suspended operations.  RGDS historically averages as much as 6 inches in the April/early May time frame.  So far, they have received over 20 inches in that same amount of time with as much as 10 inches or more expected in some areas into next week.  It is reportedly the worst flooding in 85 years!   Yield damage is prevalent across the entire state but weighing slightly more to the western side where it shares a border with Argentina.  It is important to remember that RGDS experienced extreme drought the last 3 seasons due to La Nińa.  RGDS was finally going to make a comeback with an expected production of 21.8 MMT.  There is as much as 6.0 MMT sitting in the field yet waiting for conditions to ...

On the Grains Overnight grains are soft after yesterday's strong gains as traders take stock of the drivers behind it. Top on the list was a wave of fund short covering as ongoing flood problems in southern Brazil shrink crop estimates even further and wet weather slows planting here. It's the strongest signal yet that funds may finally be abandoning a long-standing bearish bias and it could feed on itself if positive chart action unfolds further.   Yesterday started out with so-so weekly export inspections. Corn loadings were in the upper end of the expected range, wheat loadings mid-range and soybeans near the low end. However, it didn't matter when new short covering by funds kicked in for all the grains, beans, oil and meal. SBM was smoking hot on word that those southern Brazilian floods have not only stalled harvest but also idled some major crushing plants indefinitely. Wheat is getting support from ongoing issues threatening quality in EU wheat and production in both Russia and eastern Ukraine. With Australia's 2023/24 crop and export prospects down sharply as well, fundamentals are slowly improving.

Given the record short winter and unprecedented amount of crop preparation that had been done this spring, I was expecting that this year may have been the first when both my corn and soybeans entirely got planted here in April. About half of the family's corn got in and no soybeans. 39% of the corn and 25% of soybeans were planted in April in Iowa. April was cold and wet with only a few days where planters could run. Northern tier states…the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan were all single digits for planting progress in April. The problem is that not much may be going to get planted in the first half of May either and the conditions of what gets planted may be poor as they are mudded in. We are now wet. Our soil profile is full and rain is left standing to drain by tiles, creeks and rivers. The drought has been drowned here in NW IA. Probably shouldn't complain about standing water here when they got up to two feet in TX, OK and AR which caused real flooding. Again…Dr. Elwynn Taylor says that Iowa moisture in May is determined by precip conditions in AR. Air coming north from the Gulf picks up more moisture when they are wet down there. After the current system spins through the corn-belt early this week, there should be a better possibility of another planting window opening at least for portions of the corn-belt.   The first two weeks of May are ...

On the Grains Grains are weak in overnight trade wheat down double digits on some welcome rain in the parched western half of southern Plains states. There is little doubt this afternoon's crop progress report will show the lead in planting progress for corn and beans with "normal" is gone if not a little behind. But models are conflicted with one suggesting a drier pattern developing by midweek and into the following week that will allow planting to pick up again while another sees the wet pattern less widespread but still problematic from Iowa eastward well into mid-month.   What hasn't changed over the weekend is the increasingly grim flooding in southern Brazil that's caught half their crop (and `10% of Brazil's total crop) unharvested and much of it in standing water. We've got the May WASDE due Friday. USDA's Brazilian crop estimates for both corn and beans have already been regarded as far too high for months and now another 2-5 million tonnes may be lost altogether according to Brazilian sources.  

Planting delays are likely to be extended early in the week before a forecast that looks more conducive to progress, which could help lean on grain prices at the open. In the Headlines July corn futures rallied 10 1/4 cents last week while July soybeans jumped 37 3/4. The most active Chicago wheat contract managed to hold a gain of 1/4-cent but July KC wheat gave back 4 cents. June live cattle finished lower by $1.90 but settled within the top half of the week's range. May feeders were down $5.40. May hogs fell $1.85. The crude oil market continues to be closely watched for its influence on the broader commodities space. WTI crude futures dropped $5.75 last week to help weigh on soybean oil prices. U.S. production remains high and there had been a slight easing of tensions related to conflict in the Middle East. Domestic gasoline demand should start to ramp up considerably as Memorial Day approaches to kick off summer vacation season. Israel's war on terrorism could be poised to escalate this week as it looks like Gaza ceasefire talks in Egypt are not going to wrap up with any agreement this weekend. Weather in South America was a more supportive influence late last week as severe flooding in southern Brazil continued while the advancing harvest in Argentina showed the damaging impact of a corn stunt disease that was spread around by leafhopper insects. The flooding in Brazil occurred where there were still soybeans left to be harvested, so there are ...

For corn, RJO technician Dave Toth identifies the current price strength as being still only a "bear market correction" that would mark out a C-Wave on the Elliott count, but he says the alternative is for this rally to be a "dramatic 3rd-Wave of a major reversal higher." The possibility of broader trend change needs to see July corn futures sustain a move above $4.75, which would complete a 50-percent retracement of the slide from the October high. July soybeans have to first clear their March high at $12.40 before they can reach the 50-percent retracement level at $12.81.   On the way higher, old-crop corn and soybean futures could possibly face pushback from heavier farmer selling. At $4.75, many farmers across the country are getting close to or above $4.50 cash values while a rally toward the $12.81 futures target would likely bring the average cash soybean bid near $12. It is also notable that a rally for July corn to $4.75 should be expected to poke the new-crop December contract into the $4.90's. More farmers are expected to make their first sales or hedges for the new-crop if the December contract gets close to $5, which is not only an important psychological level, but also a key technical point because of its location just under the down gap from the first day of the year that extends up to $5.03.   If the corn and soybean futures fail to stall out at their nearest major technical targets and if the board rallies ...

On the Grains Grains are up again in overnight trade. Concern that a prolonged bout of soggy weather for much of the Midwest will greatly slow planting progress remains the driving force. Yesterday's weekly export sales were at least mid-range vs. expectations for beans but at the low end for corn and wheat and didn't even make the low end for SBM. Yesterday's announcement of a looming rail strike in Canada could halt their grain shipping if prolonged and potentially shift more business to the U.S. (More on other Ag implications below.)   Even though Brazil is down to its last 10% of the crop to harvest, rains have been so severe in the southern tip that 2-5 million tonnes of beans and corn might actually be lost and their crop estimates were already well below USDA's. We've set a target for selling more old-crop and the first 10% of new crop beans based on the July contract. It shows first resistance at 1225. 

When the Biden Administration released its new rules allowing corn ethanol to qualify for SAF credits, I noted how the biofuel industry took what to me felt like a gut-punch with barely a whimper. They said that they saw it as "opening a door" but that is fantasy. The door stayed shut. The new standard did decrease the controversial indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty in the 40B GREET model by over 20 percent which was hoped for. However, that penalty was unjustified in the first place so they really gave us nothing. We will raise about as much corn on the moon that qualifies for SAF given the agronomic restrictions emplaced on what it takes for corn to qualify. It appeared that the biofuel industry reaction was that they were more afraid of offending the Biden Administration then they were at truly characterizing the new rules as what they were…bull-crap. The rules released applied to 40B sustainable fuels tax credits for just this year and the previous year which means they were worthless as announced in arrears. They failed to release the model for the 45Z standard in 2025 which at this point is the pertinent info needed. There is no time to make changes to qualify for this year and we still don't know what they are for next year. Will they wait another year before they tell us 45Z requirements? There will be no US corn used for production of SAF in the US this year. Brazilian ...

On the Grains Grains are firmer in overnight trade with beans leading gains. USDA reported crush in March a little lower than expected but still at an all-time record for any month. It was still enough to hint USDA's current forecast for the year is too low. Rapidly improving basis for beans in Brazil add credence to what private estimates and their own CONAB have insisted for months that their crop is much lower than what USDA has estimated. Weekly ethanol stats from EIA were supportive for corn. Production was higher and stocks lower than trade expectations. YTD data still suggests current corn usage for ethanol projected by USDA is solid and if anything, a little low. Crude oil took a big tumble, when stocks rose by 7.3 million barrels vs. expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline. On the other hand, diesel stocks fell by 732,000 barrels and are 7% below the 5-year average. Even wheat is firmer overnight despite welcome rain forecasts for parched HRW areas because it won't stop raining in key SRW states and could now start hurting condition ratings. The forecasts for continued rainy weather slowing planting progress are an underlying supportive factor, even though once the crop is planted the "rain makes grain" mantra will resume. For now, fund selling in grains seems to have subsided. Already very heavily short, yesterday's absence of fund selling hints they're content to either hold current positions or lighten up if anything. Reaction among farm groups to the changes in the model for ...

Disappointing April Planting Progress Now Stalled   With the very early teasing of spring starting in February this year, I was anticipating the possibility of planting everything in April. I was planning to plant soybeans first. Then the weather happened. My corn went in April 25th but the soybeans will be planted in May. The family got nearly 50% of its corn in, in the short window that opened last month. The open conditions so early this year, allowed prep work which made it possible for a lot of crops to get planted in a very short open window. We had an extraordinary number of prep days this year but too few days that were actually fit to plant. Climate Scientist Eric Snodgrass was looking for things to break open in mid-April but the real spring was reluctant to arrive and is still coming in the forecast. The cool/wet pattern prevails. Looks like most crops will get planted in May. It is still snowing in the west and the frost line dips into the NE Corn Belt failing to fully retreat into Canada as well. The good news is that the area still under drought continues to shrink in the US. Our soil moisture profile has been fully restored. In fact, there are now a few regions where conditions are wet and planting is being delayed. Crops that did get planted early with subsoil moisture conditions that were recharged will be tough to kill later this summer.   Brazil Gearing Up to Take National ...

On the Grains Markets are mostly weaker in overnight trade. The weather outlook keeps getting wetter for much of the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks, so the planting pace "lead" compared to normal we have at present is likely to rapidly shrink and could even fall behind if the forecasts verify. Yesterday was a blitz of negatives for the grain market rooted in outside markets going into "risk off" mode ahead of this week's Fed meetings that end today. They're expected to stay hawkish on rates in their comments, more than hinting not to expect any cuts in the foreseeable future due to stubborn inflation despite slowing in GDP growth – the very definition of "stagflation" at time that stocks have only recently hit record highs. The DJIA took such a beating yesterday that we had the first lower monthly close after five straight monthly increases. They're down again overnight. The monthly DJIA chart also shows the brief poke above 40,000 was the upper Bollinger band and the Stochastics oscillator in the "overbought" zone since last fall was turning down. It spilled into the grains because the dollar made a new high on prospects for interest to stay higher for longer and precious metals took a hit as well. Even KC wheat took a hit on better chances for rain in the parched western half of the southern Plains where the condition ratings have been in decline. The negativity was compounded in cattle with the announcement USDA would begin spot-checking hamburger for traces ...

As a baby-boomer I am old enough to harbor some animosity toward the Japanese, not only for the Day of Infamy December 7th, 1941 that they inflicted on us but for the way they conducted the war. Japanese soldiers fought to the death which meant a lot more American soldiers had to die to kill them. There is justified ill-will in the region harbored by the Chinese and the Koreans for brutal treatment from the Japanese army. The survival rate of allied prisoners of war held by the Japanese was very low due their inhumanity. By contrast if US POWs reached German Stalags there was a high probability, they lived to talk about it after the war. The war ended and Douglas MacArthur did not repeat the mistake of Versailles ending WW1. He let the Japs up easily, allowing them to keep their Emperor, who was legitimately a war criminal, recover their dignity and due to good behavior, their independence. The Japanese people took it from there, rebuilding their nation and joining the community of nations to become a respected ally from the last cold war into this new one. They are a stable liberal Western democracy and one of America's most reliable friends. It was a hellofa transition.   They have now become one of our strongest military allies and counterbalance to an aggressive China in the western Pacific. While post WWII, they limited their military to defense; they built an effective technologically superior force which was trusted by the US ...

On the Grains Grains and soybeans are steady to weak in overnight trade with soybean meal a notable exception. It's up again and punched through some chart resistance overnight. It was up strongly yesterday on news from Argentina. They ship most of their crop as soybean meal and not only is their harvest far behind normal (25% vs. 48%) their oilseed crushers union has gone on strike. Even though rain moved into many areas Thursday and through the weekend, yesterday's Crop Progress Report showed corn planted 27%, pretty much what the trade expected and still ahead of last year's 23% and the 5-year average of 22%. On a state-by-state basis, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas have the biggest leads over last year and average but Minnesota and Iowa have big leads as well and these 5 states account for a big part of the national lead. As for "laggards", CO, IN, KY, and AL are the only states that are several points behind normal and the rest are all either on track with normal or a few points ahead. Next week, we expect to see the lead shrink back closer to normal with widespread rain through last weekend lingering as it moves east and this week normally a "peak" week for planting progress. Soybean planting came in at 18% complete, a couple points faster than expected. That's up 2 points from last year and 6 points faster than the 5-year average. On a state-by-state basis, every state either side of the Mississippi River from Minnesota ...

My recent article on Tesla/EVs generated such a response from you that I thought it deserved another swing. Geniuses have done amazing things. Aristotle, Issacc Newton, Galileo, Leonardo da Vinci, Archimedes, Michealangelo, Mozart, Beethoven, Benjamin Franklin, Einstein, Steven Hawking, Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs are just a few with the most notoriety that make the list of Geniuses that have advanced the development of the human race with their intellect.  Yes, even Nikola Tesla, the namesake of Elon Musk's attempt to reinvent vehicles with electric propulsion, was a genius which is why Musk picked his, as the name of his company. Musk is considered to be a genius himself but there is IQ and there is EQ. Musk has a lot of the former and maybe hindered by not enough of the later. On the surface his personal life doesn't look like one run like a genius but then again if you look back at all the historical geniuses, they were all a bit eccentric. I think that he let his emotions rule the decision to buy Twitter which has to have been one of the most immediate flushes of cash down the drain that must have his investors wondering what truck hit them. It was so bad they rebranded the company to X. Now when referring to the company they always say "Twitter, now called X" so what did the rebranding do for them? I have never participated on the platform. My bet is that historical geniuses' first question ...

On the Grains Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade to start the week. It was a very stormy weekend with over 100 tornadoes, frequent hail and widespread rain over much of the Midwest and Delta, that will slow planting considerably. Yet the pace was brisk through the early part of last week so today's planting progress report should still show planting on pace with normal because we were a little ahead of normal the prior week.   Wheat was the clear leader in the grains last week on the unexpectedly sharp drop in wheat condition for HRW that more than offset the best ratings for SRW in decades. We'll likely see further declines in today's report, the rains have missed up to 40% of HRW wheat in western KS, the OK panhandle and W. Texas. Globally, conditions for wheat continue to deteriorate in southern Russia, eastern Ukraine and parts of western and southern Australia.

Corn and soybeans will look for guidance from whether or not wheat futures can extend their gains after finishing higher in seven sessions straight. Most calls are for a slightly softer start in reflection of a better forecast for world weather. The spreads should remain active as positions are cleaned up after May options expired on Friday and before first notice day on Tuesday. In the Headlines July Kansas City wheat futures were the upside leader last week with a gain of 71 1/4 cents over the five sessions. July Chicago wheat finished up 55 1/2 while July corn rose 7 cents. July beans were higher by 11 1/2 cents for the week. April live cattle climbed $3.20 and May feeders were up $6.70. June hogs lost $2.35 last week. Wheat's recent leadership was sparked by another Russian attack on Ukraine's Odessa port before price strength was extended with help from concerns over dry weather in Russia as well as deteriorating crop ratings for Europe and the Southern Plains. Another crop condition ratings cut is expected for U.S. winter wheat on Monday's Progress report. Bullish fundamental inputs triggered an eventual technical breakout as Chicago wheat futures climbed above $6 for the first time since February. The Federal Reserve Bank will hold a meeting this week before issuing guidance on monetary policy Wednesday afternoon. No change is expected for interest rates. The market-implied odds of a rate cut in June are down to only about 10 percent. Maintaining a hawkish stance on interest rates is ...

This week's planting progress numbers did not trigger any alarms for the market, as corn plantings were just ahead of their 5-year average at 12 percent while soybeans at 8 percent were double their normal pace.  Even the recently water-logged Delta states had caught up on row crop and cotton plantings. Patchy spring storms have still made for somewhat of a sporadic start to the new planting season, but the moisture has been welcomed after a dry winter for most. As always, the risk will be that rain continues to fall where plantings eventually become delayed while the driest areas of the country could keep missing out.   Many of the areas where we are getting reports of active planting are the same areas that suffer the most from lingering drought. The large patch of long-term drought spreading from Kansas through eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin encompasses a portion of the country that is relatively much further along on planting corn and soybeans.  Across most of the Eastern Corn Belt and down throughout the Southeast, drought is not as much of a concern as is the wetter forecast for the start of the planting season. A drier two-week outlook should help clear the way for planters to roll, but the overall trend calls for storms to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and persistently push up into the eastern region this summer.   The ramifications of any potential planting delays are considered in a farmdoc daily article by University of Illinois ...

WHEAT RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: On 4/23 we advised SRW and HRS producers to sell remaining '23 wheat but for HRW producers to sell just another 20% (to 85% sold) to squeeze a bit more from KC wheat on this rally. We've gotten that and advise HRW producers to complete '23 sales as well. FUEL NEEDS RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: On 11/16/23, we had advised covering 50% of fuel needs through spring. With ULSD futures at last fall's lows, we advise pricing needs through summer. (If your local retailers aren't offering prices that far out, contact your Commstock broker for ways to do so via hedging in futures.) On the Grains Grains are steady-to-weak in overnight trade. Heading into the weekend traders are focused on planting progress here and harvest progress in South America. Ours will be slowed by extensive wet weather beginning today into early next week while significant progress was likely made through yesterday. Brazil's bean harvest is in the home stretch but will now be slowed by heavy rains in the southern end down through Argentina where harvest for both corn and beans are already well behind normal. Weekly export inspections for corn were terrific. At 1.3 million tonnes they blew away the top end of pre-report estimates ranging from 400k to 900k. They are closing the gap between where they should be by now to meet USDA's current export forecast. Soybean sales, on the other hand, were a paltry 211,000 tonnes and didn't even make the low end of the expectations from 300K to 600K. ...