CommStock Reports

11/19/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Craves More Chinese Soybean Demand On the Grains Soybeans weakened overnight and are nearly a quarter below Tuesday’s high, as confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases were lower than hoped, though more should be coming. At current price levels, soybeans will need consistent supportive news to attract fresh buyers. Corn divorced from soybeans on Tuesday but slipped back into a follower’s role overnight. Wheat chopped narrowly around unchanged.President Trump said Tuesday he wants China to “speed up” its U.S. soybean purchases and asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to keep pressure on Beijing to meet its commitments. But he noted, “Our relationship with China has been very good. And as far as buying our farm products, they’re pretty much on schedule.” U.S. soybean export prices remain above those from Brazil, meaning any Chinese purchases will be made by state-owned firms. Keep in mind, the prices below don’t reflect the extra 10% tariff U.S. soybeans incur versus Brazilian shipments. Ukraine Takes Brakes Off Wheat Exports Ukraine will not restrict wheat exports in 2025-26 due to a bigger crop and lower export rates at the beginning of the current season, the country’s deputy economy minister told Reuters.Ukraine’s government expects to export 17 MMT of wheat in 2025-26, up from 15.7 MMT last year. But through the first four and a half months of the new-crop marketing year, wheat exports stand at 6.8 MMT versus 8.6 MMT for the same period last year. Exports must rise to 10.2 MMT from mid-November through ...

Note to Subscribers: I am out of the office this week and have left a 3-part series entitled "Food Security Put at Risk in the Fight for Health Care" to air this Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. I hope that a resolution to the impasse funding the government reached will restore SNAP funding authorization and that concerns over ACA subsidies are favorably dealt with. Food Security Put at Risk in the Fight for Health Care Part 2 of 3 Those with health care insurance are getting hit with a double-whammy. Not only are health care insurance premiums rising faster than the rate of inflation but the percentage of the premiums paid by consumers for work-based insurance are rising too. My wife and I are on Medicare and they dropped the drug election plan that we had because it must have been too good for us. We will be forced to replace it with one that costs more out of pocket…$50 month with a higher deductible to get the drug coverage than we were previously getting. United Healthcare dropped 8 of 10 of its Medicare advantage plans while Wellmark dropped 3 of 4 plans that had drug coverage. They didn't drop the ones that benefited recipients, they dropped the ones costing them more. These companies also reduced their geographic coverage, dropping 22 Iowa counties altogether. The 10% cost hike for Medicare part B is reportedly going to soak up a third of the latest Social Security cost-of-living increase. Social Security giveth while Medicare taketh. Drug coverage ...

11/18/2025 Follow the Leader: Soybeans Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to Technical Difficulties. On the Grains Soybean futures initially pulled back overnight from Monday’s impressive gains, but are poking above unchanged and testing the waters above Monday’s highs early this morning. Demand and fund buying triggered Monday’s strong gains. While some argue about whether the price rally is fundamentally justified, the fact of the matter is this rally will go as high as speculative money flow allows. In typical fashion, corn and wheat followed to the upside. Wheat has shown partial leadership with recent support from geopolitical uprisings in the Black Sea region. Corn remains fully a follower. China’s state-owned COFCO purchased upwards of 20 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for December and January delivery on Monday, with shipments booked out of the Gulf and PNW, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the situation. Of note, Bloomberg reported the total as “nearly a million tons,” though 20 standard cargoes would be ~1.3 MMT; 51 million bushels. There was also unconfirmed talk China booked U.S. soybeans for summer 2026 delivery. With USDA fully functional again, we will get confirmation of most if not all of that business via daily sales announcements over the next couple of days. There was other big demand news on Monday that contributed to the huge upside price move. NOPA reported October soybean crush at 227.6 million bu., which was 21 million bu. above the previous record in December 2024. Two new plants contributed to the massive total but domestic ...

Note to Subscribers: I am out of the office this week and have left a 3-part series entitled “Food Security Put at Risk in the Fight for Health Care” to air this Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. I hope that a resolution to the impasse funding the government reached will restore SNAP funding authorization and that concerns over ACA subsidies are favorably dealt with.   ******************** Part 1 of 3 Preamble: SNAP and Affordable Care Act health insurance are both under the gun. The two social programs have fed a lot of people and provided access to our healthcare system for millions of families. They contribute along with Medicare, Medicaid and social security to our social safety net. This gets lumped together and described by ideologues as socialism but all most folks are thinking about is the basic need to assuage hunger and pursue health. It is personal rather than political to them. Most have become conditioned to see the divide in this country as being political, left versus right. The true divide however is economic, up versus down. This growing divergence between the top 10% and everyone else is accelerating. It used to be described as “how the other half lives”. Now, Moody’s Analytics says that the top 10% account for 49.2% of consumer spending. Factory workers are opting to get paid daily instead of weekly, draining paychecks as quickly as earned. McDonalds is benefiting because consumers are migrating to thriftier fast food, airlines make their profit from those sitting in the seats in the front end of ...

11/17/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Bounce, But Still Awaiting Chinese Soybean Buys On the Grains Soybeans led an overnight price recovery from last Friday’s losses. After gapping lower, January soybeans rebounded and are more than 20 cents off their overnight lows early this morning. Corn and wheat followed similar paths with milder price movements overnight.Traders won’t get another corn and soybean crop forecast until the final estimate in January. With USDA’s November crop reports out of the way, market focus will shift back to demand, especially from China, and South America’s growing season. U.S. soybeans for spot delivery out of the Gulf remain priced above Brazilian cargoes, especially when considering the extra 10% tariff American shipments face. President Trump said he talked with Chinese leaders about buying U.S. soybeans, noting: Beijing will buy a lot of' soybean and other U.S. goods before spring. Brazilian Rains Remain Irregular, Though Weather Mostly Favorable Forecasts call for scattered showers across southern and central Brazil early this week, with a drier pattern likely to develop in the south around midweek. Conditions are considered mostly favorable, though some east-central and northeastern areas remain too dry. Temperatures are expected to run normal to above normal across key production areas. AgRural estimated soybean planting reached 71% as of Nov. 13, behind last year’s 80% clip on that date. First-crop corn planting stood at 85%, with efforts delayed in Goiás due to irregular moisture and producers' focus on soybeans. On the Cattle:  Market reaction to President Trump’s executive order removing beef from ...

Grains called to edge weaker at the open with early week action set to show the extent of technical damage inflicted by the Friday crop report. Attention otherwise shifts right back to whether any Chinese export business materializes. The mood will also be influenced by financial markets either stabilizing or spiraling further into risk-off mode. In the Headlines December corn futures finished 12 cents off their high but still held a gain of 3 cents for the week. January soybeans gave back 22 cents on Friday but were left higher by 7 1/2 cents last week. Wheat futures were down slightly over the last five sessions. December live cattle dropped about $2 for the week and January feeders gained $1. November feeders jumped over $12 as they approached expiration on Thursday this week. December hogs were down 90 cents last week. Gold futures lost $100+ to close the week as interest rates were back in the spotlight. Expectations shifted in response to hawkish comments by various central bank officials, including one suggesting that lowering interest rates will not fix unemployment caused by "structural change in technology and immigration policy." Odds implied by interest rate futures dropped from 67 to 44 percent likely that the Fed funds rate will be reduced again in December. The next Federal Reserve Bank meeting is still not until over three weeks from now on December 10th. One additional piece of Fed news from late last week was that the Atlanta bank President Raphael Bostic announced his plan to ...

Today was the day of catch up for the USDA crop report, featuring the first corn and soybean yield updates since September 12th. First glance was given to corn yield and it was like picking up right where we left off, with USDA sticking way above the trade at 186 bushels per acre, down from 186.7 previously but more than 2 bushels over the average guess. Soybean yield was lowered just 1/2 bushel, but that was 1/10th more than the average pre-report estimate. The WASDE report also revised global stocks and usage estimates, which included USDA filling in the changes produced by the September 30 Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports. The WASDE headlines were that corn ending stocks of 2.154 billion bushels were not as far ahead of the average trade guess considering the yield outcome and soybean carryout of 290 million bushels went lower instead of higher as the consensus had called for. USDA cut the new-crop soybean export target by 50 million bushels citing the softer sales performance to date, but the analysts wrote that "U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year..." Chinese import estimates were kept unchanged for soybeans and lowered 20 percent for corn. World ending stocks were lower than guessed, but wheat quite a bit higher.   Back to the yields briefly, there were some state by state adjustments that stood out, starting with the I-states. The prevailing wisdom was that Iowa had a record corn yield, ...

11/14/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video USDA Crop Reports Return; Trump Targets Beef Prices On the Grains January soybeans pivoted around Thursday’s highs overnight, failing to find sustained buying at $11.50 but also not seeing any active selling – holding at the highest levels since June 2024. December corn held near unchanged overnight after yesterday’s move to the highest price since July 3. Wheat futures were mildly supported by news of a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub for grains and oil. An oil terminal was damaged, while there were no reports of structural impacts to grain terminals in the port. Russia retaliated with strikes on Kyiv. USDA’s November Crop Production and WASDE Reports will be released at 11 a.m. CT – the first updates since September due to the government shutdown. There’s a lot of uncertainty around what USDA will estimate for corn and soybean production and yields after missing last month’s report, though yields and crop size are expected to decline from September. Over the past 10 years, the biggest corn yield decline in October was 0.8 bu. in 2023, with the largest decline in November being 2.6 bu. in 2020. Combining those two extremes would land the yield at 183.3 bu. per acre. The 10-year average is no change in October and a 0.3 bu. rise in November. That would put the yield at 187.0 bu. per acre. The midpoint of that range is 185.2 bu. per acre, which seems logical ...

While EVs have grown their market significantly worldwide and the trend continues overseas, EVs have been a bust for automakers here in the US. Despite all of the government incentives offered to entice consumers into EVs, building interest in owning an EV was like "pushing a wet noodle on sand paper". Rural America loves pickups but not EV pickups. Ford has reportedly stacked up $13 bln in EV losses attempting to enter the US EV domestic market since 2023. They were going to build a massive state of the art EV plant near Memphis that is now being transitioned to make other components or vehicles. They had paused production of F-150 EV pickups and are reportedly considering dropping plans to make F-150 EVs altogether. The F-150 has long been the no.1 selling pickup in the US so if they do not see the market for it, it likely doesn't exist.   Losing the $7500 tax credit is very hurtful to sales prospects. Tesla and others sold a lot of vehicles ahead of the expiring tax credit but the true market will soon be determined by post-credit sales. GM makes 3 EV pickups and reportedly sold a whopping total of 1800 of them last month. Development costs are so large they cannot come close to selling enough of them to be profitable. EV batteries require rare earth minerals to make and we know who controls their supply. EV pickups are a built-in drag on US auto-companies' financial performance. US companies say they are ...

11/13/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Flashing Breakout Signs On the Grains Soybeans broke out above the top of the short-term consolidation area on the daily charts overnight, reaching the highest levels since mid-June. Corn futures are on the cusp of a similar breakout, though they favored the downside overnight. Wheat futures traded lower overnight. Funds are buying soybeans despite a lack of Chinese export demand activity. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper for late fall/winter delivery when accounting for the 10% tariff difference, limiting Chinese firm’s willingness to buy U.S. supplies, despite the trade deal. Money flow is important, but the soybean market will need some bullish news soon to maintain upside momentum. Open For Business Again President Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse. He ordered furloughed employees to return to work today. However, it will take days or weeks for operations to return to “normal.” Some government data that was shelved during the shutdown will be released as timely as possible… some will never be released. Based on past shutdowns, USDA is expected to release export sales data for the six-week period, though it will likely come in big chunks – potentially in one lump sum. The White House said the October jobs report and consumer inflation data is unlikely to be released. USDA Reports Return Friday USDA will issue its November Crop Production and WASDE Reports on Friday at 11 a.m. CT, after having to skip them in October due ...

They say you never forget your first time! I would agree. Of course, I am speaking about tariffs. I just paid my first one. I sent US$42,000 to the US Customs and Border Protection to pay for green coffee we recently shipped from our farm in Brazil to the US. The Trump Administration argued in front of the Supreme Court last week that it was a matter of national security that they receive my $42,000. In released audio, the court judges appeared to be skeptical. The legitimacy of President Trump bypassing Congress to enact tariffs at will, has been challenged at the highest level, with the Supreme Court decision having a major impact that could result in either an abrupt end to tariffs, or creating new legal precedent, giving the President even more executive authority to enact taxes on anyone or anything without any checks and balances.   By this point, we would hope that most readers have come to understand that tariffs are in essence, a tax on American consumers. Some have argued that the tariffs don't appear to be as inflationary as originally thought. I remember seeing back in September, people arguing that there had not been any increase in lumber costs despite the tariffs placed on Canadian lumber. That was because the tariffs had not even started yet. We are still in the early stages of our self-imposed tariff utopia.   Much like coffee, aluminum has just reached all-time highs. Spoiler alert: We consume a lot of aluminum. The number one ...

11/12/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Acknowledges Brazil Ag Deal; Still No U.S. Confirmation New Reco Day 3: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. The sell order was hit on Monday at $11.32. On the Grains Soybean futures firmed overnight, while the wheat markets weakened and corn was caught in the middle, pivoting around unchanged. Chinese state-owned food giant COFCO announced signing of agreements totaling more than $10 billion with the ABCD trading firms — ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus — to purchase soybeans, soybean oil and palm oil from Brazil. The contracts, inked during the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, cover nearly 20 MMT of commodities and underscore a deepening trade partnership between Beijing and Brasília. China still hasn’t publicly confirmed the recent agreement with the U.S., which the White House said included Beijing’s commitment to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year and 25 MMT of supplies in each of the following three years. After reports of a handful of U.S. soybean cargoes sold to COFCO ahead of and after the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, it’s been eerily quiet on the trade front. Spot U.S. soybean exports shipped from the Gulf are about the same as Brazilian prices, excluding tariffs. The additional 10% tariff U.S. soybean shipments to China incur make supplies currently uncompetitive for Chinese commercial firms. Also, PNW soybean basis has fallen more than 20% for November and ...

Interest rates are coming down, or are they? The Fed has now reduced its benchmark interest rate that banks are charged by ½% so far this year but the rate used by the mortgage industry to set their rates is the 10-Year Treasury note which bounced following the latest Fed rate cut.   30-Year Fixed: The average rate has fallen to around 6.11% as of November 1, 2025, down from earlier highs in 2025. A year ago, it was 6.72%. So that is better than it was, but I went back to check what my mortgage rate is and at 2.55%, it should be near the historical low. CD rates are higher than my mortgage rate and it is less than the rate of inflation so one cannot afford to pay that off early. That is why many homeowners are locked into the homes they have. Even divorcees share homes not wanting to give up their cheap mortgages. Rising home insurance costs, required for mortgages, are also spoiling the soup. The government shutdown temporarily disrupted the mortgage process as well. Realtors say the housing market has gotten tough…harder for buyers to get mortgages making it harder for them to get deals to close. Realtors would agree with Fed Chairman Powell that the housing market is tightening. There is more demand than there is the ability to master affordability. There is some significant regional disparity in home sales. FL may be the worst where 17.8% of closings fell through in September. Here in the ...

11/11/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key To U.S./China Trade Deal: VEU, Not Soybeans New Reco Day 2: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. The sell order was hit on Monday at $11.32. On the Grains Soybeans modestly pulled back overnight after rising to near the top of last week’s broad trading range on Monday. Corn and wheat pivoted around unchanged in a quiet overnight session. China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms, keeping some of its export controls in place. The “validated end-user” system (VEU), would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to follow through on a pledge to President Trump to facilitate the export of such materials while ensuring that they don’t end up with U.S. military suppliers, people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal. The VEU mechanism that Beijing is considering is modeled on U.S. laws and procedures. The U.S. VEU system has been in place since 2007. Under that system, certain Chinese companies are cleared to buy sensitive goods via a general authorization, essentially a simplified export-approval mechanism, instead of needing individual licenses for each purchase. This makes it easier to import controlled goods such as chemicals or chip-making equipment but requires companies to put up with U.S. government inspections of their facilities, among other steps, to verify compliance with ...

I have eerily noted that some things that president Trump says seemingly come to fruition because he says them. His bully-pulpit has been adhered to by markets often enough to cause me to pay attention with caution and respect. Buying the stock market when he said to worked out for investors although he will never tell them to sell. Maybe buying more farmland as he advised would work too? Long term it has always worked. When he says that interest rates need to come down 3%, I think he means it. When he says that he wants control of the Fed, he will get it eventually.   Looks like he didn't need the Senate to adopt the "nuclear option of ending the filibuster" as they found 60 votes for a deal to reopen the government (he will need it for other things). After getting 60 votes to bring the bill to the floor they only need a majority for the actual vote on the bill. That should happen and then it goes to the House which has to come back into session. Then, Speaker Johnson will have to crack Trump's whip. I was surprised the Dems caved. I have a flight booked next week from Des Moines to LaGuardia so this vote may have a direct impact on that trip. I have been waiting for my cost share on a conservation project from USDA that was delayed until October but then was caught in the government shutdown. More on the details of ...

11/10/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Risk Appetite Builds Amid Cautious Optimism New Reco Day 1: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. On the Grains Global markets and grain futures showed cautious optimism overnight amid signs of thawing U.S./Chinese tensions and a procedural hurdle to end the record U.S. government shutdown. January soybeans traded near the middle of last week’s broad range during the overnight session. Corn and winter wheat markets rebounded from losses late last week. China rolled back tariffs on U.S. goods today, as part of the deal reached at the end of October between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. China also added 13 fentanyl precursors to a list of controlled exports to the U.S., Mexico and Canada, under commitments of the deal, imposing new export license requirements. The U.S. and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices, in another sign of easing tensions. The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the government shutdown, as seven Democrats and one Independent voted “yes” with Republicans, while Sen. Rand Paul was the lone GOP “no” vote. It is not yet clear if Senate Democrats and Paul will allow the remaining voting process to be expedited or if they will force the multi-day process to play out in full. All 100 senators would need to agree to speed up the rest of the process. The package includes three regular ...

Grains are called to open quietly steady unless the stock index futures are snowballing lower by that point. Last week showed cracks in the recent grain price strength as the broader financial market flipped risk-off. A late Friday recovery for stocks looks more likely to extend into temporary stability that puts the attention of grain traders back onto Chinese buying. We will discuss moving to reward the soybean price rally this week. In the Headlines Reduced flights were the latest product of government shutdown cuts, with shrunken and unpaid air traffic control teams causing the Trump administration to cancel thousands of flights. Scheduled air traffic is set to decline by 10 percent this week and up to 20 percent if the shutdown continues. A new development on shutdown affecting SNAP payments also came on Friday evening with a court order that suspended an earlier ruling requiring the government to pay full benefits. China followed through on removing certain controls against metals and other elements heavily used in the production of smart phones and other technology hardware. Export restrictions were suspended on Friday for lithium and most of the rare earth minerals, and then on Sunday for gallium, germanium, and other hard metals and metalloids. Monday is the scheduled date for the U.S. to lower the fentanyl tariffs and for China to remove and reduce tariffs against U.S. imports, including soybeans. Price limits were again being tested by cattle futures last week as prices tumbled in response to bearish headlines about beef tariff reductions and ...

The soybean rally sputtered on Tuesday and Thursday this week at the same time that the stock market was selling off. Immediate points of alarm for equity investors included the pending impacts of the Supreme Court hearing on the validity of President Trumps tariff authority, which overlaps with soy traders awaiting confirmation of follow-through or lack thereof on Chinese export purchases. All industries are left susceptible to tariff decision ramifications that could include a mess of lawsuits over tariff refunds. Striking down the specific tariff authority being tested diminishes the basis of prior trade deals, but it sets up a likely quick replacement of new tariffs under alternative legal powers, prompting another web of court cases to follow.   Adding to attention on tariffs and the government shutdown, two other storylines were raising interest for threatening to destabilize financial markets – cracks showing up in the commercial credit market and fears about artificial intelligence causing structural unemployment to rise. These stories leave a person hoping that the stock market nervousness expressed this week was not foreshadowing a worse panic where the public hears a lot more about 'receivables factoring' or worse, 'the AI bubble.'   Receivables factoring is the business practice of packaging and selling invoices to raise cash that is backed by the future customers payments owed to the company. Investors can have interest in factoring companies that buy the receivables and take future payments or just make loans to a company using the customer invoices as collateral. These lending arrangements are economical ...

11/07/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Waiting On More Active Chinese Buying & Gov’t Shutdown To End On the Grains Soybeans and spring wheat futures firmed a little overnight, while the corn and winter wheat markets favored the downside. After Thursday’s hefty losses, all but spring wheat futures are working on losses for the week, though that could still change during daytime trade. The China demand front remains quiet to close out the week. Aside from a handful of cargoes (soybeans, wheat and sorghum), Chinese buyers have not rushed to purchase U.S. ag goods in the immediate aftermath of the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinpinig. Aside from uncertainty about Chinese demand, Trump’s tariffs and the upcoming Supreme Court decision, along with the ongoing government shutdown continue to hang over markets. Regarding the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Senate Republicans Thursday that they should expect to vote on a new proposal today. That proposal would reportedly combine a short-term spending measure with a package of three full year funding bills, covering the legislative branch, agriculture, and military construction and veterans affairs. However, Democrats indicated they weren’t sold on the package. China’s Trade Activity Slumps in October China's exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% from year-ago to an eight-month low of $305.4 billion in October, missing expectations for a 3% increase and plunging from an 8.3% gain in September. This marked the first decline in exports since February and only the third monthly contraction since the start of 2024. Shipments to the U.S. plunged by ...

The opening arguments in the case presented to the Supreme Court over the legality of president Trump's use of emergency powers to unilaterally declare and impose tariffs, without explicit Congressional approval, appeared to favor the plaintiffs judging by the Justices comments. Congress has given the executive branch emergency powers but these have never been legally defined in context with tariffs until now. The tone of the Justices during the opening arguments, how many questions and to which side they are directed, can be a sign of how they are leaning but it is not definitive. The tone appeared to favor the plaintiffs. No one knows for sure how long it will take for the Justices to render their verdict but it could be months rather than weeks to wait.   President Trump was clearly concerned about this court case as it goes to the heart of his authority to levy tariffs without Congressional approval. No one has taken as much license to do that as this president has. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs were initiated and enacted by Congress without the initial support of president Hoover who agonized over whether to sign a bill authorizing them but ultimately succumbed to political pressure to do so. Farmers were strong supporters of Smoot-Hawley tariffs, hurting because of imports. 1000 economists wrote Hoover a letter asking him not to sign the tariff law and it would not be hard to find 10,000 economists who would do the same with Trump. This time around Trump is unilaterally ...

11/06/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Traders Sell the Fact On the Grains Soybeans traded notably lower overnight, continuing the pattern of big price swings the three previous days. In typical fashion, corn followed soybeans. Wheat futures also weakened overnight, after a string of recent strong gains, in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade with Chinese purchases. China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony at the U.S./China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, part of the China International Import Expo. No details on purchase volumes were released, though as I previously reported, talk ahead of the event said it could be up to 5 MMT. Beijing on Nov. 10 will suspend retaliatory tariffs on many U.S. ag imports, though U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% duty in addition to the 13% VAT that is charged for all soybean imports. Note: The key difference lies in import tariff — 3% for Brazil versus 13% for the U.S. (remaining fentanyl tariff). If Trump takes off the 10% remaining fentanyl tariff, then China would likely lower the soybean tariff by 10 percentage points leaving it at the 3% MFN rate. A soybean industry contact said: “China might waive the extra tariff for government owned/state owned enterprises, but I’m not sure if they would do that for privately held firms. That could allow some purchases to go through but may not expect them to go far beyond the baseline commitments if it’s just Chinese government owned companies buying. This will have to ...

For better or for worse, a trade deal with China is consummated. Soybeans traders will now spend the better part of the next several months or more attempting to discern whether China will abide by that deal. China does not have a great track record when it comes to honoring their trade agreements, and so we prefer to error on the side of caution. Part of how we come to understand trade deals could get lost in translation. Not all countries stop at their respective "STOP" signs when driving, as some consider them merely a suggestion. Could China consider our soybean purchases to be a similar suggestion? It cannot be understated that their purchase of ag products is "unbinding" much like the last trade deal. Meaning there are no repercussions if they do not follow through. After the first trade agreement, we saw no apparent change in their buying pattern, continuing to purchase beans in Brazil where they were cheaper. Why would they stop now?   A big part of the trade deal with China was gaining access to their supply of rare earth minerals without stipulations. They agreed to extend the availability for twelve months, which means we may get to do this all over again a year from now. Between now and then, China will use this time to replenish their inventory of soybean supplies while the US continues to develop more alternative supplies for rare earths. In other words, while this trade deal needed to happen, we remain unconvinced ...

11/05/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Confirms Removal of Tariffs on U.S. Ag Goods On the Grains Soybean futures rallied overnight but didn’t take out highs from the two previous days. Price action remains volatile as traders try to sort out the China demand situation and relative fair value. Corn remains a follower, though price action hasn’t been nearly as volatile since there is no talk of China buying U.S. corn. Wheat modestly eased from its recent gains overnight.China confirmed it would end tariffs imposed March 4 on soybeans and other U.S. ag products including corn, wheat, sorghum and chicken. Beijing is also removing an additional 15% retaliatory levy on U.S. wheat. The ministry confirmed in a separate notice that the 24% tariff on all U.S. products will be suspended for a year. These changes take effect Nov. 10 and are in line with the fact sheet of the trade deal released over the weekend by the White House. A 13% VAT will still be charged for U.S. soybeans. Soybean Export Prices Matter With the one-year truce on soybean tariffs by China, daily export prices will largely determine whether Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian or U.S. supplies. As of Monday, Brazilian shipments were cheaper than U.S. cargoes after an extended period of running premium to U.S. Gulf values. As long as Brazilian prices are cheaper, any Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans will be from state-owned entities versus commercial firms. Each bushel (or metric ton) of soybeans that is sold to China is still ...

I am not a big baseball fan but I did follow the World Series. It was not only the Dodgers against the Blue Jays or LA versus Toronto but it was Canada versus the US. I have never noted that President Trump has paid any attention to the game of baseball either (until LA won being invited to the WH) but many Canadians thought that they were playing the Series against him. That made them want to win very badly. I checked the odds ahead of the series and pundits gave LA a 4 to 1 advantage to win over Toronto. The Dodgers are in first place for players' salaries at $350 mln versus the Blue Jays which are in 5th place for players' salaries at $255 mln. The Blue Jays had them until they didn't. The Series went through game 7 and had two games with extra innings including the final, until the Dodgers eked out the win. That was how it was likely going to end but Canada rallied to make it a seriously contested Series. They were not intimidated by the Dodgers and played to win. I did not note any evidence of disrespect by the Dodgers toward the Blue Jays. Both are members of Major League Baseball so are part of and partners in a league.   I wish that we could say the same with our economic relations with Canada. Both countries are part of the USMCA alliance which in Canada is called CUSMA. It covers 85% ...

11/04/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybean Buyers Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from their recent surge overnight, as there were no new private reports of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Corn also weakened, while the wheat markets traded mostly higher, led by SRW contracts.StoneX Raises Corn Crop Estimate, Lowers Soybean Forecast StoneX forecasts corn production at 16.748 billion bu. on a yield of 186 bu. per acre. Those are up modestly from the firm’s estimates of 16.737 billion bu. and 185.9 bu. per acre in October.For soybeans, StoneX estimates production at 4.303 billion bu. on a yield of 53.6 bu. per acre. Those are down slightly from the firm’s estimates of 4.326 billion bu. and 53.9 bu. per acre in October. Due to the government shutdown, USDA did not release October crop estimates. In September, USDA estimated the corn crop at 16.814 billion bu. on a yield of 186.7 bu. per acre. It estimated the soybean crop at 4.301 billion bu. on a yield of 53.5 bu. per acre. Other private crop forecasts are scheduled to be released this week. Even if the government doesn’t reopen by then, USDA will release this month’s crop production estimates on Friday, Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10). One issue USDA (NASS) will face is that the October objective yield samples had to be discarded after the shutdown, meaning there is a “skip” in the data. Many of the fields that were tabbed to be surveyed on a monthly basis ...