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Tomorrow I’ll have “Part 2” of the most important observations and prognosis for resolution in the AFBF report. But I already see another implication they don’t even cover: The increasing importance of growing domestic demand for ethanol and biodiesel to reduce our dependence on exports. The competitive threat from Brazil is increasingly obvious. Now add to that the twin threats to ocean transport that threaten comparative advantage there. Even the AFBF study observes Brazil even gains an edge there being much closer to the tip of Africa route to Asian markets.

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6 am, corn was steady to firm and beans firmer yet, while wheat was soft. To nobody's surprise, the EPA missed the Friday deadline to announce final rules on how ethanol can meet specs for Sustainable Airline Fuel (SAF). Now we await several more weeks before they'll say exactly how farmers can help meet those specs by supplying refiners with corn grown under "climate-smart" methods as well as other things winning "credits", such as use of wind or solar on the farm. Beans are firmer despite dueling estimates for the size of Brazil's crop. Some private firms are now even lower than our own estimate at 145 MMT, but StoneX just revised their estimate upward to 151.5 MMT from 150.35 previously. We have the March WASDE due Friday. There's no doubt USDA will come down from 156 MMT, the only question is by how much. Pre-release trade estimates will be closely watched for that reason. War risk premium is still warranted. It was revealed over the weekend that Iran has even considered building a naval base in Sudan to more efficiently supply their Houthi proxies with aid attacking Red…
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03/03/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Grains are called firmer behind follow through buying interest for soybeans. Expectations will formed for the March crop report scheduled for Friday. The broader commodities market will be sensitive to the direction of crude oil prices as they respond to a pending decision from OPEC regarding production agreements. In the Headlines The White House did not meet the promised deadline of March 1st for releasing details of how tax incentives will work for the production of sustainable aviation fuel, now saying that the plan was to "finalize updates in the coming weeks." Reports were that ethanol would not qualify on its own for use as a feedstock, but that the tax breaks could be received if ethanol was produced with corn from farms that could prove the implementation of certain other sustainable farming practices, such as having solar power or growing cover crops. Sorghum export sales were very strong again last week as China continues to buy aggressively as a partial substitute for its corn needs. China is expected to take in about 240 million bushels of U.S. sorghum, which accounts for 75 percent of sorghum production last season. Sorghum imports will not totally replace corn, as China is projected…
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