03/13/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Bulls Have Bigger Letdown Risk

Commodity prices have rallied in response to fresh war premium entering the space, with large investment capital attracted by the crude oil strength as it exited the stock market. Even amid the heightened volatility, money flows have been relatively orderly and not all that surprising compared to how traders would normally expect movement among the different asset classes. Energy markets reacted first, surging higher on the prospects of production constraints, shipping disruptions, and strategic stockpiling. The dollar immediately jumped against most currencies as investors searched for safe haven, including with money moved into cash from the stock market. Losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were approaching about 5 percent in the two weeks since the attacks on Iran. Uneasiness over war’s impact on the economy spilled over from the stock market into agricultural futures initially, but the crude oil rally eventually won out to pull grains higher as well. All markets remain in a precarious ebb and flow where money coming out of equities can turn into bullish price pressure elsewhere – until the broader risk-off shift becomes too much so that it turns into a sell everything event.   The U.S. stock market is thought to make up…