03/12/2026 Middle East Tensions & Biofuels Rumors Explode

03/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Middle East Tensions & Biofuels Rumors Explode On the Grains Grain and soy markets extended Wednesday’s gains overnight, though they remain below Monday’s intraday highs. Crude oil futures have retreated from their overnight highs but remain higher amid an escalation of attacks in the Middle East. Iran attacked six more vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including to Iraqi tankers, prompting the country to suspend operations at its oil terminals. There have now been at least 16 ships struck in the waters around Iran since the fighting began. Aside from support from crude oil, the soy oil market was boosted Wednesday by rumors about the forthcoming EPA announcements on biofuels blending mandates for 2026 and 2027. There were several rumors floating through the marketplace, though the most credible seems like an EPA 2026 biomass-based diesel RVO of 5.4 billion gallons with ideas of 70% of previously granted small refinery exemptions reallocated to remaining refiners. That would result in an effective 2026 RVO near 5.61 billion gallons. Reason this makes sense: EPA’s original proposal was 5.61 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel for 2026, though you get there with…