12/03/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Are Brazilian Farmers Silently Going Broke?

Brazil’s 25/26 soybean planting season is on the final stretch, with remaining areas in RGDS and the Northeast expected to finish in the next ten days. Meanwhile, earlier planted soybeans in parts of Mato Grosso and Parana are already beginning to set their pods. Rainfall will be critical in the month of December for grain fill in these areas. The northern tier of Brazil continues to receive abundant rainfall covering Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and the MAPITOBA region. Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana have been receiving scattered showers from 0″ to 2″. The forecast shows general precipitation filling in any remaining dry pockets, but it has been showing that for a couple of weeks only for it to continue to remain in the “scattered shower mode”.   The dry pattern in Southern Brazil has been well telegraphed at this point. We do see a weather front bringing in a couple of inches mid-December from Argentina over portions of RGDS. This will be important but may not be enough to prevent yield loss. Dry weather anomalies stick to Southern Brazil until the end of the year. If they last much longer than that, rapid yield loss may occur. Overall,…