11/05/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – China Still Hooked on Brazil Soybeans

For better or for worse, a trade deal with China is consummated. Soybeans traders will now spend the better part of the next several months or more attempting to discern whether China will abide by that deal. China does not have a great track record when it comes to honoring their trade agreements, and so we prefer to error on the side of caution. Part of how we come to understand trade deals could get lost in translation. Not all countries stop at their respective “STOP” signs when driving, as some consider them merely a suggestion. Could China consider our soybean purchases to be a similar suggestion? It cannot be understated that their purchase of ag products is “unbinding” much like the last trade deal. Meaning there are no repercussions if they do not follow through. After the first trade agreement, we saw no apparent change in their buying pattern, continuing to purchase beans in Brazil where they were cheaper. Why would they stop now?   A big part of the trade deal with China was gaining access to their supply of rare earth minerals without stipulations. They agreed to extend the availability for twelve months, which means we may…