10/14/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Feeding Cheap Crops Expensive Fertilizer

Fertilizer prices are going to increase the cost of production of corn in 2026 which is counter-intuitive to what one might have expected given low corn prices. Low prices are supposed to cure low prices by reducing marginal production acres but Trump farm-aid ACH payments could well make up for low corn prices and short-circuit the expected response to market signals. What if we plant as many corn acres again in 2026? It is not as if other crops offer alternative profitability. We will grow 70% corn again on our farm.   The NCGA says that fertilizer will represent 36% of the cost of growing corn next year. The higher cost of fertilizer is likely to eat up any cost savings in other inputs such as fuel so that the overall cost of production remains elevated relative to the price of corn. Farm-aid will pass right through farm bank accounts supporting agribusiness, rents and land values.   NCGA Chart Explanation: “Heightened Concern for Fertilizer Costs and Corn Prices for the 2026 Crop.” Given metrics for current fertilizer and corn prices, it costs a record number of bushels to buy fertilizer. For that matter, it requires a record number of bushels…