10/01/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – China Not Rolling Over For US Farmers

Brazil’s planting season has leapt out ahead of its historical pace with more than 5% planted overall. This is primarily due to solid rainfall limited to the state of Parana, giving growers the confidence there to move full speed ahead. The outlook appears dryer almost everywhere else. We spoke with one grower in Central Mato Grosso that was already 40% complete compared to the state average of 6%. They shut down the planter yesterday and were now going to wait for more rainfall to materialize. They received a good rain in late September that gave them enough moisture to start, but that will quickly evaporate in the 90+ degree heat. They will now wait for additional rain in the forecast before they start the tractor back up.   Outside of Southern Brazil, we see virtually no precipitation through October 5th. This region represents 70% of the soybean production in Brazil. The outlook for October continues to trend drier for the European model and is even less generous for the GFS. We have mentioned in prior reports how the rainy season likes to do a head fake, sending in a large shower, only to turn dry again for several weeks before…