09/29/25 Afternoon CommStock Report -Another Disappointing Finish?

The word “disappointing” is being used a lot to describe early corn yields…more so than soybean yields which appear to be coming in closer to expectations. Peak corn crop condition appears to have been seen in early August when NDVI scores were the best in history. Note how the NDVI for IA/MN has fallen back down to the mean trend since summer. It was not a good finish to the corn crop due to drought in the ECB and rust impacting corn. Optimism that exceptional corn yields would offset poor prices has deflated.   The NDVI deterioration tracks with declining crop condition ratings. Yes, fall crop condition ratings deterioration is seasonal but corn condition ratings are now below a year ago in Iowa, 74% last week versus 77% last year. Good/excellent corn condition ratings nationwide no longer show the record yield they once did. The condition ratings decline for soybeans is now below a year ago, 61% last week to 65% last year. The acres will not go away however. The upward revision in corn/soybean planted acreage in the September WASDE report was bearish, particularly for corn which was up 1.4 mln acres to 98.7 mln.   Ironically, I added…