06/27/2025 It’s a Deal, China and the US Agree to Terms

On the Grains
Yesterday’s export sales were again strong, reported at 29.2 MBU. With 10 weeks remaining, we expect an adjustment of around 100 MBU (which we’ve discussed extensively), so we’ll leave it at that. Historically, July forward export sales have ranged from 5 to 20 MBU. The rest of the year is not a concern, and there could still be additional upside, as the US is the cheapest place to source corn, for now. What catches my eye are the sales for 2025/26. Cumulative sales now stand at 142 MBU compared to last year’s 127 MBU. While it would be nice to see a smaller crop in Brazil (which won’t happen), we are still on a better-than-expected pace considering the rhetoric that China isn’t active in the marketplace. They will come to us only when needed, and that decision won’t be made until after they get harvested in the fall.