06/04/2025 Let’s Make a Deal

On the Grains
We often do not spend much time on wheat other than noting it as a competitor to corn on the world-feed grain platforms. However, yesterday was all about Ukraine going after the Crimea Bridge, trying to take that out and disrupting Russian shipments. About one-third of all Russian wheat travels under that bridge to access the export market, and if that bridge collapses, it could cause some extended shipping delays. Now, had that gone down, a couple of secondary effects could have taken place. The first is that buyers would be forced to source wheat from elsewhere, the second is that Russia could retaliate and attack the Port of Odessa, thereby closing shipping from that location as well. The bridge is also a landmark project for Putin and would likely give him the green light to escalate the war. However, the attack was unsuccessful, and the channel is expected to be reopened today or early tomorrow. Now, moving to domestic wheat, reports are starting to pour in about the amount of rust that has started in the lower portion of the United States. Depending on how far along the rust is and how much additional rain falls, we could see losses ranging from 5% to 80%. Funds continue to sell wheat as if there is nothing to worry about, time will tell. If that story continues to develop, we may finally get our wheat headline to propel corn out of the range we have been trapped in.