02/26/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Dry March Forecast In Brazil Could Be Supportive

Brazil keeps harvesting about 10% – 12% of their soybean crop each week, currently reaching about 40% overall. They should reach the halfway point while we are at the Commodity Classic in Denver next week. In the case of Mato Grosso, it has caught up to their historical pace and even begun to surpass it, reaching 70% harvested the middle of this week. We expect they will be on the homestretch in the next ten days.   Brazil soybean exports are starting out slow with estimates looking for 10.8 MMT so far in 2025 compared to 12 MMT this time last year. However, we expect them to accelerate as the peak export season doesn’t actually take place until April/May. A major crop tour last week put Brazil’s soybean crop size at 171.3 MMT finding record yields in the Center West and Northeast regions. However, it still wasn’t enough to offset losses to drought in the South. The season is not over yet, and RGDS must get through the month of March without issue. The weather forecast continues unfriendly for portions of Southern Brazil. We may still find additional yield deterioration in that state, bringing the crop size down closer to…