02/18/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – ‘India First’ Now Challenged by ‘America First’

Somebody has got to be first and up until now, at least in terms of global trade, it has been India which set rather than followed rules. President Trump tag-teamed with India throwing a wrench into WTO dispute panels because he did not like rulings that the thought favored China. India has been the biggest thorn in the side of the WTO. India is the primary reason that further trade liberalization talks broke down and the WTO got stuck where it is today. India has practiced aggressive protectionism, in particular in regard to food. India subsidizes its domestic food price to 800 mln voters. President Trump ordered OMB to conduct a study of which countries and which products to enact reciprocal tariffs upon. This would likely target India where it hurts. At the very least, president Trump will use this for negotiating leverage. Sometime though, he is actually going to have to follow through with a tariff threat or someone will call his bluff. OMB is unlikely to get DOGE’d until after the study. India has an average tariff rate of about 17% on imports while the average tariff rate for the US is 3.3%. The way this is supposed…