02/12/2025 USDA/WASDE Status Quo, Except for Cattle

On the Grains
On to the next seems to be the theme. Yesterday’s USDA/WASDE report was uneventful for the most part. Domestic numbers were left alone, with no changes made to the corn or the soybean numbers. The South American production was adjusted a touch lower, yet there was nothing to get excited about as those numbers were also within the trading range. If there was one tiny surprise, I would say that it was the world bean stocks. World Soybean stocks were down about 4 MMT vs. the last report. Again, it was nice, but there was nothing to get too excited about just yet. I caution against getting overly complacent in this corn market. Brazil’s planting will gain momentum this week and next, nothing says that we won’t see an increase in corn acres, as I continue to hear about how this rally has made it profitable to plant corn. World stocks to use (excluding China) are under 10% now, which matches 2012/2013, and eye up the 95/95 levels of sub 8%. Unfortunately, China will be reducing corn imports as they had them off 3.0 MMT this month, down to just 10.0 MMT total, which is down 13 MMT from last year. Yes, overnight corn was up an outdated penny. However, without fresh news, this market is getting stale. The funds are aware of the stocks-to-use ratio and have gotten long already, and bulls need to be fed. Interestingly, in a conversation with one large AG supplier, prepay agronomy started off slow this year, and they were sure that they were long Urea, when the dust settled mid-January, they ended up being short. It appears that farmers were reluctant to commit to planting more corn but ultimately did.