01/30/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Delayed Harvest and Dry Weather Pattern Continue In Brazil

Rainfall starts out below normal in Mato Grosso this week, but that is mostly seen as a good thing. Farmers are anxious to make progress on soybean harvest while simultaneously getting caught up on second crop corn planting. This break from daily showers doesn’t seem to last long as precipitation begins to fill in later this week again. Argentina and Southern Brazil did receive pockets of showers, but combined with extreme heat, the market does not seem to think it was enough to reduce yield loss. The weather story seems mostly unchanged. While pockets of RGDS in Southern Brazil continue dry, the vast majority of Brazil’s growing regions will see more than sufficient rainfall.   We still don’t think Argentina and Southern Brazil have seen the end to a dry period, but the longer-term forecast remains more favorable. We are reaching the end of peak soybean precipitation demand. That being said, many regions that plant a month later still need rainfall in February…and it appears they will get it. Brazil’s 24/25 soybean season is entering its 4th quarter, and we see no reason why they won’t reach the USDA’s target of 169 MMT or more. Argentina has begun to trim…