01/15/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – USDA Report Miss Makes Brazil’s Crop Even More Critical

The same weather pattern in Brazil will continue this week with above average precipitation in the North and below average to the South. We do see rainfall beginning to return around January 20th and building into the end of the month but to what degree is uncertain. Everyday stress damage builds, especially in Argentina where temperatures remain elevated. While most of the dry pattern has fallen on RGDS, parts of western Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul have also been affected. We do see 2+ inches falling early next week in many areas but until then farmers will be on edge. It should improve conditions in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul but showers do not appear to be as widespread in RGDS and Argentina.  While we typically rely more on the European model, it is important to note that the GFS model is much more generous, seeing widespread rainfall by January 27th.   The dry weather in RGDS will undoubtedly have an impact on soybeans yields, however they still have time to recover. It will likely have a greater impact on first crop corn yields that find themselves in the critical ear fill stage. Nearly 10% of the first…