01/07/2025 Boxes Sharply Higher, Corn and Soybeans Waiting on Friday’s Numbers

On the Grains
Good morning: only three more sleep until the January crop report, which will give us final yield numbers on the 2024 production. While the December report was a nice surprise as they reduced the carryout, it feels unlikely that we will get back-to-back gifts from the USDA. The USDA has a history of holding steady or only slight adjustments from the November report on. The one exception was the 2020 report. While yes, the USDA could give us some nice surprises, I don’t like sitting back and doing nothing hoping we see adjustments like the 2020 reports. The continuous corn chart has rallied 95 cents since August 27th. May at-the-money $4.60 puts are running 17 cents right now and, depending on risk tolerance, could be offset by selling something above or below the market.  For example, you could buy a $4.60 put for 17 cents and sell a $5.00 call for 7 cents, making your cost only a dime, with the risk of more corn being sold at $5.00 obviously, this isn’t for everybody, but give us a call, and we can walk through some scenarios for your farm.