01/03/2025 Crush It, Weather and Livestock

On the Grains
The USDA released Crush data yesterday, which reported corn use at 464.9 million bushels (bu), modestly above last November’s 457.2 MB. While USDA adjusted ethanol grind higher in the December report, additional demand could be coming. Weekly EIA numbers, released yesterday, came in at 1.11 million barrels per day (mbd), which was up from 1.107, and over the last 5 weeks, we have been running 1.8% above last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 993 million gallons, up 24 million gallons.  The weekly number needed to meet USDA’s estimate is 1.045 Mbps vs. last year’s 1.042. While it seems like a very reasonable target to hit and possibly exceed, USDA will be slow to adjust those numbers, just like the exports after December’s large adjustment. Argentina continues to dominate the corn market news; we’re rounding the corner on pollination in several of the largest producing states with limited rain in the forecast.