12/18/2024 Dead Cats Won’t Even Bounce

On the Grains
Overnight soybeans finally made a new low even after robust flash export sales yesterday morning. Spain, a country we don’t often hear much about on buying soybeans, came to the market and procured 187,000 MT. While this is likely an olive branch and an effort to keep off the US tariffs radar, I wouldn’t expect them to become “regulars.” If we remember back to Trump tariff 1.0, we picked up something like 28 additional countries that purchased soybeans replacing China. While in a perfect world, we would like to believe that we would keep those additional countries as customers and China it’s not likely to work that way, especially with a 170 MMT crop in Brazil staring us down the gun sights. We need to see soybean oil or meal make a recovery or this cat isn’t even going to bounce. Soybean oil overnight took out the psychological support of $40.00, next up is the support at $38.74 (I may look at buying that if we get there). We do have a weather risk forming in Argentina on the extended forecast, something to keep an eye on but nothing to get overly excited about.