12/05/2024 Outliers and Exports

On the Grains
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the markets that chop around. Yesterday’s news was limited as no flash sales were reported on corn or soybeans. We did have the weekly EIA report out showing ethanol production slightly lower, this is not a concern as that is common for the week after Thanksgiving. Currently, the EIA numbers have ethanol production at 7.9% above the 4-week average and looking forward we only need to average .8% below where our current grind pace is to meet the USDA’s 5.4-billion-bushel grind. I would be surprised if we did not see an upward revision in the grind and exports next week in the December 10th Crop Production report. The overhanging question remains, are these sales just front loading or are we going to keep pace all year? We should have some the average trade guesses out tomorrow for Tuesdays report.