11/08/2024 Great Expectations, Great Disappointment

On the Grains
Welcome to the early show, we’ve got some market makers or market breakers out today, the USDA/WASDE 11 am report. While exports have been excellent and are undeniably what is supporting the bottom-side of this corn market, let’s take a look at yesterday’s export sales report. Corn sales were reported at 2.76 million metric ton (MMMT) that is 108.9 million bushels, up 18% vs last week and also up on the 4-week average. Here is where the smoke show starts, that is up from last year’s same-week 40 mbu and brings total commitments up to 1.125 billion or 48% higher. Pealing the onion back a little more, we need to average 25.5 mbu the rest of the shipping season vs last year’s 33.4 mbu needed.  While some of this may have been risk off purchases with the election it’s still a blistering pace and should be reflected in today WASDE report.