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On the Grains
What’s done is done, this crop is basically harvested and put away as many of my clients finished up yesterday. Make no mistake, some pockets of Minnesota did disappoint. I don’t know how but some of these dry areas pulled in fantastic corn yields this year and now it’s all about demand. The USDA Ag attaché in Ukraine sees this year’s production at 23.3 MMT for corn, down from the USDA’s official estimate of 26.2 MMT which is also down sharply from last year’s 31.0 MMT (WASDE is at 32.5 MMT). The long and short of it is that Ukrainian exports will likely struggle to hit 17.8 MMT vs the USDA’s forecast of 23.0 MMT. Those sales will have to be made from somebody else. For example, China purchased 4.6 MMT from them last shipping season. While they can be as reluctant as they want to buy from the US and wait for Brazilian supplies, we continue to hear that the domestic demand in Brazil is way under the estimates. USDA has total exports at 2.325 billion bushels vs. last year’s 2.292, a number that could end up being 200-400 million too low, buckle up for tomorrows export sales report.

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