09/30/2024 USDA Stocks Report, Hogs Brush off Negativity

Reco Day 3: Sell 20% of 2024 soybeans at $11 March futures. Above you will find today’s installment of Morning Market Talk. Cattle Trade Hits the Brakes You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning’s episode. https://youtu.be/axy0jzWrZCE On the Grains USDA stocks reports are out this morning, all eyes will be on the quarterly stocks, which there have been September surprises before. In the last four of five years that has been the case, with the 2019 and 2020 being the biggest outliers. Give last year’s crop, the strong basis in the west, we would expect the burden of proof to be on the bears. Not one year in the last 20+ years has USDA increased the previous year’s production materially. The average reduction in those four of five years has been 193 million bushels. The most likely scenario is for 2023 yield to be unchanged and the adjustments made in the Feed/Residual category as exports, for all intensive purposes, came in right on trajectory. Which leads me to the next point, 2024 crop finish is less than ideal in the northern belt, what does the September 2025 stock report look like if no revisions are…