09/18/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil’s Early Planting Weather Outlook Still Shaky

All eyes are on the rainfall maps in Brazil, looking for any indication that the rainy season is coming back to life. September rainfall averages are usually less than 2″, but they do allow the farmer to begin the process of restoring moisture in their soil bank. Most farmers will look for at least 3″ before they feel comfortable shifting to high gear on planting speed. There have been some reports of late September rains, but we cannot yet confirm anything substantial. Ten-day weather anomalies continue to show below average rainfall. While the longer-term forecasts are rarely as accurate, the European 30-day weather anomaly does show moisture building into mid-October. It is too soon to confirm anything, but if that forecast is accurate, soybean seeding could still begin on time in the Center West region. The GFS model, however, is much less generous with rainfall.   If we want to believe the European model, the closer we get to October 1st, the more precipitation in the ECMFW comes drifting into Mato Grosso. The Eastern side of the state shows next to nothing while the Center part of the state shows up to half an inch. The Northwest corner of the…