09/16/2024 Big Banks being Pressured, Got Milk, and Harvest Progress

On the Grains
Welcome to another week of exciting futures action brought to you by the CBOT. Here we go, soybean harvest has kicked off in Northeast Iowa as a client of mine called Friday doing his first field of beans. Those beans on lighter ground planted April 18th were running 55 bpa, he was pleased with the yields considering the lack of rain in July and August. That farm has done as high as 70 bpa in good years and very well could have been 70 bpa this year with any amount of rain in August. While I think it’s too early to call a trend, I think about the NFL and undisputed and conclusive evidence, to overturn a call, that’s what it feels like when I think about the USDA numbers going forward. It’s just going to be so spotty that any quantifiable change will be left for the January report or even later in the stocks numbers well into 2025. 2019 continues to come to mind when we played kick the can all the way to the stocks report in August of 2020 when all the 2019 crop was gone, half the 2020 production priced, and USDA adjusted the stocks sending us on a bull run. While we can’t and most likely won’t sit around and do nothing staying somewhat flexible on marketing seem pertinent.