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On the Grains
Grains are firmer in overnight trade as of 6am. It may well be the heavy pounding they’ve taken so far this week has adequately discounted the improved weather spun off by Hurricane Beryl and so today we’ll have some “evening up” in trade ahead of tomorrow’s big reports. The market obviously thinks yield losses tied to flooding in the upper Corn Belt have been overplayed, but ethanol refiners don’t. We’ve seen the national average corn basis climb a penny a day for three straight days and at a Valero plant in Hartley, IA basis jumped 7 cents yesterday alone.
Speaking of board risk, we have the averages and ranges of trade estimates for key metrics in tomorrow’s WASDE. Looking first at trade thinking on corn production, the average trade estimate for yield is actually down 6/10ths of a bushel from June, and they range from unchanged to down 3 bushels. However, the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks and June acreage still have production rising by an average guesstimate of 156 million bushels compared to June.

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