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On the Grains
Grain prices are steady to mixed as of 6am as we await trade estimates for Friday’s crop reports and WASDE updates. We’ll have them by tomorrow. As highlighted in yesterday’s chat with Nutrien Ag Solution’s top meteorologist Eric Snodgrass by Commstock Channel host Marlin Bohling, Hurricane Beryl has proven somewhat of a “Black Swan” event. It has disrupted prior forecasts, spinning off more than expected rainfall sweeping NE from Texas through Missouri, the mid-South and much of the Eastern Corn Belt that welcomed it.
While we could still see conditions suddenly turn hot and dry for beans in August, as currently forecasted by CPC, it looks like key corn pollination season from now through the end of the month is going to be just fine. Market sentiment based on strong crop condition ratings is that there’s no chance USDA will trim its yield estimates in Friday’s report despite all the soggy ground woes in the northern Corn Belt. While we still think harvested acreage will drop by a million to 1.5 million acres “eventually”, that won’t show up until after FSA acreage certification in August at the earliest. That’s also when we’ll get the first crop estimates based on actual field checks to ascertain yield.

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