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On the Grains Corn and beans are firm in overnight trade while wheat is weaker. Weekend weather was generally favorable for both Brazil and Argentina and the dollar is firm again, so the firmness in corn and beans flies in the face of what would normally be pressuring prices even more. The big gap between USDA and its Brazilian counterpart CONAB on the soybean crop was only reinforced when two more private firms down there lowered their own estimates even lower than CONAB. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report confirmed that trading funds were relentless sellers of both soybeans and corn through last Tuesday with their net short position in corn now near 300,000 contracts and approaching the all-time record short at 322,215. As you’ll see in this week’s basis update below, spot basis weakened for both corn and beans a second straight week last week. I’m regularly asked what could trigger a rebound in such a bearish climate and the only thing that comes to mind is “evidence the market is running out of willing sellers” that triggers fund short-covering. There’s no evidence of that yet but plenty of evidence that corn is severely oversold, even on the weekly chart….

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