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On the Grains
Grains are mixed in overnight trade, but leaning weaker. Beans and SBO sport the only plus signs as of 6 a.m. and wheat weaker than corn. It’s said “it’s always darkest before the dawn”, but it sure didn’t help the bearish market psychology when USDA released latest estimates for ’24 net farm income. At $116 billion, it will be down 25% from last year and down 41% from 2022’s record of $189 billion.
Today’s bevy of reports from USDA, STATS Canada and Brazil’s CONAB will be the story of the day as they are released, with WASDE the “big kahuna” out at 11 AM. Normally the February WASDE is a yawner, particularly for U.S. balance sheets. They usually show little change from January with the “supply” side fixed. But this year, there are unusually wide ranges in pre-release estimates for ending stocks due to wide variation in what traders think USDA might do in usage:

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