09/14/2023 WASDE Numbers Dialed In, Attention Shifts to Early Harvest Results

FALL FERTILIZER RECCO DAY 1: The months of down trending fertilizer prices appear to have bottomed out. See the Weekly Retail Fertilizer Update at the end of today’s report and see why we’re recommending you price fall fertilizer needs now if you haven’t already. SOYBEAN RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: Past advice still has you 25% hedged in November futures. We think the bearish reaction to Tuesday’s WASDE was overdone and expect further declines in yield and ending stocks. Lift those hedges now and prepare to store beans. On the Grains: Corn and beans are steady to mixed and wheat a little on the soft side in low volume overnight trade. We start with weekly export sales at 7:30. They could set the tone for early trade. Here are the ranges of expectations: Corn – 500,000 to 1.1 million tonnes, soybeans – 600,000 to 1.450 million tonnes, and wheat – 250-600K tonnes. WASDE numbers are now “dialed in” and attention shifts to anecdotal reports of harvest results as they start to come in and a close watch on cash basis to gauge seasonal “harvest pressure.” I think it could be lighter than expected. Commercials are short-bought and likely to be ready takers…