09/12/2023 USDA Crop Progress and September Production Report

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The flash drought-like end to the 2023 growing season is squarely focused on the state of Iowa. Gd/ex corn condition fell 3% last week to 46%, which compares quite unfavorably with a year ago when at 63% for Iowa. Gd/ex soybean crop condition ratings fell 5% to 44% last week, which compares to 63% a year ago. 99.8% of IA is in D0-D4 drought. Dry conditions are quickly advancing maturity. 38% of Iowa corn is mature compared to 24% last year. 25% of soybeans were dropping leaves compared to 17% last year. I think it is over 50% here locally. The corn is essentially done and soybeans are filling off whatever subsoil moisture remains accessible in the soil profile. The 6–10-day forecast is for still mostly above normal temps and below normal precip for IA and surrounding region. Rain now mostly keeps the dust down. My concern is that the soybeans are going to dry out quick so combines will have to get there even more quickly before moisture levels drop and BBs shatter. MN is little better than IA with corn condition 39% gd/ex versus 62% last year…