05/24/2023 How Weather and Geopolitics Are Sending the Market Mixed Signals

On the Grains: Grains are soft in overnight trade as we go to press. A notable exception is soybean oil. It’s getting support from a pop in crude oil prices because of the biodiesel connection. The American Petroleum Institute say U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 6.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks dropped by 6.4 million barrels. If DOE data due later today confirms those numbers, it will be the third weekly decline. Oil traders are also a bit unnerved by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning, “short-sellers should watch out” as a thinly-veiled threat that OPEC+ is mulling another production cut. NOAA issued a new 8-14 day forecast yesterday and it was one of those rare ones that both bulls and bears claimed supported their view. The bears noted the warm dry conditions for most of the Corn Belt promised planting completion and a good start for crops while bulls saw the same maps as potentially threatening, “If they persisted beyond the forecast period.” That might seem like a stretch because the CPC’s 3-month forecast through August issued just last week says the summer outlook as a whole looks promising. Nonetheless, the bullish spin worked to help corn…