03/09/2023 Grains Firm on New, Even LOWER Estimates for Argentina Than USDA’s!

If  you’re at the Commodity Classic down in Orlando, be sure to swing by booth 2719 and visit with Commstock broker Justin McKinney! On the Grains: Markets are firm in overnight trade after disappointing closes yesterday. Even though USDA cut Argentina’s crops to the lowest of trade estimates, the Rosario Grain Exchange just lowered them even more. They now put the bean crop at only 27 MMT vs. USDA’s new figure of 33MMT and the corn crop at only 35 MMT vs. USDA’s new estimate at 40 MMT. Yesterday’s muted reactions in corn and soybeans to USDA’s surprisingly large cuts to Argentina’s corn and soybean crops was a classic example of a market that had already “bought the rumors” and ready to “sell the fact.” Even though USDA cut both crops by near the very lowest pre-report estimates, they left Brazil’s estimate unchanged. The impact on global soybean ending stocks was only slightly below expectations. The market finished with only a slight gain for beans and well off the day’s high. As for U.S. balance sheets, soybean ending stocks came in 10 million bu. below the average trade estimate but the average farm price was left unchanged at 14.30. In…