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Morning Headlines and Hotlines
Market Commentary
# National Hog Farmer says that the biggest hog kill. . . the record kill week this year, will come in early Dec. when hogs not slaughtered during the Thanksgiving holiday come to plants. If it's a 5% spike in numbers, that will add 100,000 head to that week's kill likely resulting in a 300,000 head Saturday slaughter that week. Packers appear to be geared up for it. No sign of 1998.
# Wind energy equipment manufacturing will have a longer business life history than construction of biofuel equipment as there is no limitation on the Feedstock for a windmill. Wind is free and there is lots of it. A 5th wind power equipment construction plant is being built in Iowa, this one to produce the wind turbine towers. This industry should blow on and on.
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Market Research
***On the Grains***
It was all speculative investment inflow into commodities that pushed prices higher last week, the stuff of which bubbles are made. As I noted Friday, it would be "the direction of the dollar, oil, gold and commodities, hard asset investments, will set the trend this week." The U.S. dollar is sharply higher this a.m. Gold is sharply lower, oil is lower despite another incident in Turkey/Iraq. Commodity values are not going to soar while the global economy swoons. The bubble right now looks to be the Euro and the Shanghai stock exchange. Economic slow downs cool demand for commodities. |
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***On The Hogs***
The pork cutout only lost a nickel but packers saved 1.89 from the IA/MN direct market, quoted 55.85. Packers did moderate the kill
Saturday, but killed 132,000 more hogs last week than a year ago. The trade doesn't know what to be more impressed with, the scope and depth of fall supply, or the ability of the product market to date to absorb it. The pork cutout actually rose 19 cents week to week. |
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***On The Cattle***
Beef cutouts were soft, choice product losing 80 cents. Packers continue to defy logic expanding the kill by 40,000 head last week over the previous week, 31,000 head larger than a year ago. When there are fewer cattle on feed and the kill is larger than a year ago, eventually, supply will tighten. As long as packers continue to schedule aggressive kills, they have to buy more. Packers to date have been surprisingly willing to endure negative margins, maintaining kills. |
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